Nick and Dan Gilbert (center) are ready to make the playoffs. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/Getty Images)
Moments after striking draft lottery gold by winning the No. 1 overall pick for the second time in three years, Nick Gilbert, son of owner D...
Nick and Dan Gilbert (center) are ready to make the playoffs. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/Getty Images)
Moments after striking draft lottery gold by winning the No. 1 overall pick for the second time in three years, Nick Gilbert, son of owner Dan Gilbert, had already turned his attention to the Cavaliers’ next goal.
“Whoever we pick can make our final push into the playoffs,” Nick declared.
Dad agreed: “This is huge for us. It’s our third year in a row in the lottery. Hopefully it’s our last for a long, long time.”
The 24-win Cavaliers jumped up from the third spot in the lottery order, claiming the No. 1 pick despite having just a 15.6 percent chance of doing so. As The Point Forward’s Rob Mahoney noted Wednesday, the future appears bright in Cleveland thanks to two first-round picks this year, a clean salary cap sheet making them players in free agency, and a young core centered around All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving.
But just how difficult is it for lottery teams to escape the roomful of ping pong balls and qualify for the postseason? What does recent history tell us about the likelihood of the Gilberts’ playoff dreams coming true in 2014?
Making the lottery leap
The face-value odds of making the playoffs are deceptive. Sixteen of 30 teams get in! That’s more than half!
“This is the beginning of our annual right of renewal,” commissioner David Stern promised Tuesday. “The lottery into the draft into free agency, and those are sort of the ways, together with trades, that our teams get ready for the season.”
Of course, the 30 teams begin next season with the same shot of qualifying for the playoffs in theory only. In practice, the haves and have-nots aren’t too hard to spot already, nearly 12 months out and before the draft or free agency cycles have even begun. We can all agree the Bobcats, Magic, Kings and Suns will all likely be back in the lottery again next year, correct? And we can essentially pencil in at least five teams — the Heat, Thunder, Spurs, Pacers and Bulls — into next season’s playoffs without blinking, right? And, wait a minute, haven’t the Spurs made the playoffs every single year since 1998?
That begs the question: What exactly is the year-to-year turnover rate in the playoffs? How many new blood teams can we expect to qualify for the 2014 playoffs? How many open seats at the table are the Cavaliers realistically fighting for?
Four of the 16 teams to qualify for the 2013 playoffs — Warriors, Rockets, Nets and Bucks — did not qualify in 2012. Turns out, that’s right about average.
Examining the playoff teams since Michael Jordan’s sixth and final title in 1998 reveals that, on average, there are 3.7 new playoff teams every season compared to the previous year, yielding a turnover rate of 23.1 percent year-to-year. There’s slightly more movement in the Eastern Conference, where an average of two new teams appear in the playoffs every season compared to 1.7 new teams out West.
Put simply: In any given year, roughly three-quarters of the league’s playoff teams can be expected to return to the postseason one year later, while roughly 10 of the 14 teams in the lottery in any given year can be expected to endure that shame again the following year.
Going back to 1999, there has never been a season in which there were more than five new playoff teams — I’ll call them “leapers” from here on out– compared to the previous season. On the other side, there’s never been a season in which there was less than two leapers. Only once in the post-Jordan era has a conference returned all eight teams to the playoffs for a second straight year, which happened in the East following the 2011 lockout.
Adjusting for games lost during the lockouts, the threshold to make the playoffs in the East is significantly lower than in the West. Over the 15 post-Jordan (Bulls) seasons, th