Shane Larkin is poised to make noise in the NBA.
(This is Part 14, the final in the series that I published at Hardwood Paroxysm throughout the year.)
The 2013 NBA combine is behind us. After thirteen parts attempting to quantify what i...
Shane Larkin is poised to make noise in the NBA.
(This is Part 14, the final in the series that I published at Hardwood Paroxysm throughout the year.)
The 2013 NBA combine is behind us. After thirteen parts attempting to quantify what it all means, now it is time to declare winners & losers. Let’s start with the crew deserving a bump in their draft status.
Winners
Shane Larkin – If his NCAA-leading points produced through pick & rolls (scores plus assists) didn’t impress you, or his 24 points per game during Miami’s ACC Tourney run, then how about his joining this crew: Derrick Rose, Russ Westbrook, Mike Conley Jr, John Wall, Nate Robinson, and Jerryd Bayless? Those were the drafted underclassmen point guards with sprint speed below 3.15 seconds and no-step vert of 30” or more. Ignore concerns about his tiny stature; this Hurricane is primed to do big things.
Otto Porter – Tall small forwards rate as the NBA’s most-productive two-way players. Who stood tallest of the 2013 small forward class? Of course, Otto Porter, also the draft’s most productive 19-year old. I see a strong NBA career, despite middling athleticism tests…which aren’t consistently reflective of NBA success or failure for a small forward, anyways (actually, most of those correlations were negative).
Phil Pressey – He surpassed 3.2 seconds in the sprint and 11 seconds in the agility drill as a draft-worthy upperclassmen point guard. That’s been a can’t-miss combination over the last thirteen years and a great source of late value. Peyton Siva also bested these thresholds, but currently ESPN and Draftexpress include him outside the likely draftees*; at nearly 23, he has never been a particularly effective collegiate offensive player. This serves as opportunity to say, don’t overrate players that otherwise may not warrant drafting, just because of favorable combine results (obviously an Olympic track athlete isn’t likely to find NBA success).
Nerlens Noel – Did I bump my head? I am giving Noel the benefit of the doubt here. The small group of very long, very speedy prodigy centers is fairly glamourous. Nerlens’ 110” reach meets one criteria, and I have faith that his sprint speed bests 3.3 seconds.
Victor Oladipo – The complete list of underclassmen (Oladipo is still 21 as of February 1st, 2014) shooting guards with first-round talent and a 6’ – 9” wingspan, 31” no-step vert and 35” max vert in the last fourteen drafts is: James Harden, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon, Ronnie Brewer and Jeremy Lamb. I expect the young Hoosier will fit nicely into this list. Ben McLemore also leapt over 31″ from a stand-still, exhibiting a trait often portending success for first-round, underclass shooting-guard talent. Allen Crabbe barely missed the combination of qualifiers that Oladipo met.
Cody Zeller - His sprint speed ties the third best of the centers evaluated by this study. His no-step vert rose the highest of the entire 2013 Combine. Given the precedent of these traits predicting success in underclassmen centers, this helps solidify Zeller in the top-ten. Norvel Pelle flashed an exciting blend of speed and length…who is he? I don’t know, but as a late second round project, he may be worth a look.
Losers
Rudy Gobert – Here’s the shocker; my big, contrarian view. Also, this may not be fair, because this project focused solely on NCAA players. But heading into May 16th, reports of his wingspan were 7’ – 9”…now it’s a confirmed 7’ – 8.25”. Why would this bump his draft stock? As an anecdotal case, the players in the draftexpress.com database with wingspan greater than 7’ – 8” include: Mamadou N’Diaye, John Riek, Alexis Ajinca, Saer Sene, Michael Olowokandi, Chris Marcus, and Boban Majanovic. Is this a list that inspires confidence? Detailed here and here, as a general rule, increased size did not correlate to improve