Columbus Blue Jackets

This is for @osujoe, the notorious (not famous) Brassicek Jersey Yesterday was an interesting start to the Memorial Day weekend in Blue Jackets land. So I thought I would summarize some of it, and muse on it a bit. First and foremost, the CBJ announced that goal tender Curtis McElhinney was signed to a 1 year, one way deal. CMac had a great year this year leading Springfield to the second round of the AHL playoffs. He posted a 29-6-3 record, with a 2.29 GAA and a .923 Save Percentage. These are very good numbers, that eclipse the relatively pedestrian numbers he has posted in prior service in the NHL. CMac will be coming in to compete for the backup goalie spot behind Bobrovsky. CMac came to the organization as an injured goal tender as part of the 2011-12 late season purge that sent Antoine Vermette to the Phoenix Coyotes. At the time he was recovering from major surgery. The CBJ signed him to a two-way deal last year, and he spent the entire year in Springfield. Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch is quoting Jarmo Kekalainen as saying that CMac earned the contract with his play in Springfield, and the one way deal was pretty much what was necessary to keep him in the organization. At 30 years old, this is probably CMac's last real chance at the NHL. We need a back up goal tender who is committed to performing, and will win us some games while relieving Bobrovsky. On the 'let the wookie win' front, the CBJ signed Finnish defenseman Ilari Melart to a one year entry level deal. He is a 24 year old, 6'3", 227 lb stay at home defenseman, who has some thump to his game. This ensures that Dalton Prout has some competition coming into camp. This should prove interesting. While I can't recall the source at this moment (apologies to that source) when following this on Twitter yesterday, Jarmo basically implied that people will have a hard time getting away from him on the smaller North American ice surfaces. Not to say that he is merely a goon, but he is a large, physical defenseman. I think this adds some real depth to the CBJ defensive corps in an area that we are not deep. This is a good signing by Jarmo, capitalizing on his knowledge of European players. Anton Forsberg in 2012 Development Camp In another development, the Columbus Dispatch is reporting that the CBJ signed goal tender prospect Anton Forsberg to a 3 year entry level deal. Forsberg will likely play in Sweden this year, where he has a chance to compete for a starting with Modo in the Swedish Elite league. Forsberg is probably furthest along of all the bright goal tending prospects in the system, and its possible he'll make the jump to North America for the 2014-15 season. Bobrovsky is still not signed, but Bob's agent would be a stone cold lunatic for signing a deal before finding out whether Bob had won the Vezina trophy for best goal tender of the year. So that won't happen at least until after the second game of the final, which is when the Vezina award will be announced. Patience it the watchword here. Keep calm, and vote for Bob in the EA Sports NHL14 cover vote. So far he is in the semi finals. Have a fun and safe Memorial Day everyone! Take a moment to reflect on those who have fallen to keep our Country free. GO JACKETS!

Throughout 2013, I’ve been providing semi-regular headlines here at WFNY under the vein of “WFNY Stats & Info.” Often, these will be incredibly detailed split statistics showing various streaks and runs for the Cleveland teams. Today, I’d like to propose something different: A Cleveland-based prop bet. Which will be more: Home runs hit by Jason Giambi in 2013 for the Cleveland Indians OR wins in 2013 by the Cleveland Browns? Share your response in the comments. The gist on Jason Giambi There’s no doubt that Giambi has been one of the premier sluggers in the last 20 years in baseball. He only has 431 home runs, but has an excellent .521 slugging percentage. For his career, entering Friday night, he was averaging 20.2 plate appearances per home run. The difference is that he’s been a shell of his former MVP-self over the past few years. Here are the average numbers in the six seasons from 2007-2012: 90.2 games, 285.7 plate appearances, 54.8 hits, 10.0 doubles, 13.2 home runs, 40.8 walks, 62.2 strikeouts, .235/.363/.448. His plate appearance per home run statistic still remained pretty close at 21.7. But, entering 2013, no one knew if Giambi would even make the Indians roster. He had been primarily a pinch-hitter for Colorado the last year, hardly ever starting in the field. And the batting numbers weren’t all that good. Yet, Giambi made the roster, was an excellent clubhouse addition and even belted two home runs in his first four games, totaling 18 plate appearances. Since then? It hasn’t been pretty. Through Friday, he’s now 0-for-22 in his last eight games dating back to May 11th, with just five walks. He now has 69 plate appearances on the year. As always, getting double-digit home runs was always going to be a matter of plate appearances, but his struggles have reached a new level. Even if he were to get to 180 plate appearances, are even 8 homers a given? Certainly, it could be rationalized if the team cuts ties with him by the All-Star Break or sooner. The gist on the Browns Over the last five seasons, your beloved Browns have a combined record of 23-57. They’ve never had more than five wins in any of those years. They’ve gone just 5-25 against the AFC North and then underwent yet another drastic franchise makeover in this past offseason. Their GM Michael Lombardi was an incredibly unpopular hire and new head coach Rob Chudzinski was as un-glossy of a hire as they come. So what are fans thinking? As of now, I’d optimistically put my over/under on the Browns at maybe 6.5. That’s clearly showing some faith in the continued development of the young stars on both sides. The team should be much improved defensively, but is the schedule still too tough? Will the offense produce at even NFL averages yet? As I’ve said to friends and family countless times when discussing this fake prop bet, the city of Cleveland would be absolutely thrilled with an 8-win 2013. Fans would be screaming “Super Bowl sleeper” as 2014 approaches. In my mind, 7 wins is the breakeven point of excitement and frustration. Anything less, even to a mild nature 6 wins, could be considered a disappointment. My vote: As I was leaning initially, despite some wavering, I’m going with the Browns. Eight days ago, this was a much closer decision. Most of my family was leaning toward Giambi, on the hopes he’d stay with the team all year and maintain at least a replacement-level form of slugging. Now? He’s been dreadful and could be cut at any moment with no qualms 1 . Yet the Browns maintain a solid pace for 6 wins or more. That’s where I’m leaning again. ___________________________________ Although because of his exceptional clubhouse presence, even if he is dismissed from the roster, one would expect he’d remain with the team somehow in some capacity. All indications seem to point toward him eventually becoming a manager one day.

Valeri Nichushkin Position: Right WingTeam: HC Dynamo Moscow (KHL)Age: 18Date of Birth: March 4, 1995Place of Birth: Chelyabinsk, RussiaHt: 6'4" Wt: 201 lbsShoots: Left 2012-2013 Regular Season Stats: GP G A PTS +/- PIM 18 4 2 6 +6 0 2012-2013 Playoff Stats: GP G A PTS +/- PIM 25 6 3 9 +5 0 Valeri Nichushkin is an interesting prospect. He has the size of a legit NHL power forward, with room to fill out his frame, but he also has the high-end skating of a player much smaller. He has great size, his speed is excellent, and he has some ability to dangle on top of all of that. He has shown the ability to exploit gap weakness in opponents, and has used his speed as a main driver for his offensive game. He does show the ability to make plays, but is far from a polished offensive player in that regard. He has some question marks, however, the biggest of which would be his transfer status. Nichushkin came out earlier this week in saying that he plans to come to the NHL after his draft, and Dynamo Moscow has indicated they will let him out of his contract. But, money talks, and BS walks, as they say. To say it's a done deal would be a bit short-sighted. The other areas for improvement for Nichushkin include his willingness to play two ways, and his overall hockey IQ. There are rumblings about his lack of vision, and also questions about his willingness to play a "team" game. That said, these issues are far from unanimous among scouts. Nichushkin is ranked #2 in the final Central Scouting International Skater rankings. Scouting Reports: Nichushkin is an impressive power forward who has a ton of natural gifts. He could be a potential star, if not an elite power winger in the NHL. His best skill is his skating ability, as he is a true plus-plus skater that defensemen need to respect when he's barreling down the wing. If a gap gets too tight, Nichushkin will likely be behind the defender in no time. He is also a strong, 6'4'' pillar who loves to drive to the net. Combining that with his speed and skill, he draws a lot of penalties. Nichushkin's north-south game is his strength, but he has a high level of ability with the puck, with the capability to make players miss. He can make plays to his teammates, and he has good offensive instincts, although his hockey sense is an area of division among scouts. Some question his vision, feeling he can be a little selfish. Others think his hockey sense is above average. He has the ability to skate through an entire team, so it cannot be considered surprising that he tries to do a lot. One area of concern: he needs to improve his defensive play. - Hockey Prospectus Nichushkin checks into our rankings as the class of the Russian prospects in 2013. The rangy winger has a huge frame and oozes offensive potential. Nichushkin should be primed for more minutes this season and is coming off a year where he was a standout at the Under 17 level as well as playing up at the Under 18 level as an underager. Nichushkin has some dynamic ability and an ability to generate chances that could easily vault him into the Top 10, but the Russian factor will be a major concern with him – much like Anton Slepyshev a year ago who wound up being undrafted despite possessing Top 20 talent. - The Scouting Report (September 2012) Why he'd be a good fit in Columbus: To be honest, he possesses two things that would make him a good fit for the Blue Jackets: size, and speed. Nichushkin would bring some additional breakout speed on the wing for a Jackets team that can always use more, and also brings legitimate NHL size. The Jackets don't really have any true power forwards anymore on their roster, and a player like Nichushkin would help to remedy that. However, there are questions about his two-way play, which would be a no-no for this current Jackets make-up. This team plays a team game, and any questions about selfishness would b

While We’re Waiting serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com. Nice look at Norv’s past success: “The greatest organizational acquisition of the Cleveland Browns over the past twelve months has been that of their new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Yes, Turner only reached the postseason 4 times in 15 years as an NFL head coach, with the Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, and San Diego Chargers. Of all the head coaches in NFL history with a losing record in their respective careers, Turner has coached the most games. As a head coach, he has been criticized for lacking motivational and emotional leadership skills, exhibiting poor clock management, and being responsible for a series of poor drafts, most notably over his last several years in San Diego. However, his credentials as an offensive coordinator are impeccable.” [Kyle Flippin/Sporting Charts] – Great research here from Ben about lottery-turned-playoff teams in NBA history: “Four of the 16 teams to qualify for the 2013 playoffs — Warriors, Rockets, Nets and Bucks — did not qualify in 2012. Turns out, that’s right about average. Examining the playoff teams since Michael Jordan’s sixth and final title in 1998 reveals that, on average, there are 3.7 new playoff teams every season compared to the previous year, yielding a turnover rate of 23.1 percent year-to-year. There’s slightly more movement in the Eastern Conference, where an average of two new teams appear in the playoffs every season compared to 1.7 new teams out West.” [Ben Golliver/SI.com Point Forward] – My friends at Wages of Wins posted an early look at the top 25 NBA Draft prospects, as sorted by their Wins Produced per 48 minutes statistics. – I’m still not sure where I’m leaning in this debate: “Of course, for every yin there is a yang, and Brantley’s success seems to bring about a new dilemma for the Indians — contract negotiations. With Brantley under team control through the 2016 season, it would appear as if now is the time for the Indians to entertain the possibility of a contract extension with Brantley. However, this is obviously a task that’s easier said than done. As a center fielder playing a corner outfield position, it’s almost impossible to get a read as to what kind of contract Brantley could be due. Brantley is far from a power hitter, but he does still stroke plenty of doubles, and his value to the team cannot be denied. [Steve Orbanek/Indians Prospect Insider] – FASCINATING data on reliever and starter year-to-year correlations: “In terms of basic batted ball data, the correlations for both sets of pitchers compare quite well. But after the first three, things really begin to separate. For example, relievers have a year-to-year correlation of .67 in terms of their strike out rate. That’s a pretty solid correlation, but it’s .15 less than for starters. The same goes for swinging strike rate (-.15) and walk rate (-.13). Even outcomes such as HR/FB rate that has a low correlation for starters (.29) is significantly less reliable for relievers (.07).” [Bill Petti/FanGraphs] – Review of the Indians year so far, beginning with the big Texan: “Biggest surprise: Tie-Starting pitching and team power. I was very concerned, as most Tribe fans, about how solid was the SP going to be. Too many question marks to be confident, but at this stage, very excited at the results. Masterson has been just “Nasty”! I know everyone will still say we need an ace to make ANY headway in this division, but I will RIGHT NOW STATE Masterson IS OUR ACE. He is doing just what an ace is supposed to do; take on the other team’s ace; go deep in the game; keep the lead; turn it to the bullie and sit back and watch. Well he is doing just that and more, like complete games and shut out i

The Dispatch's Aaron Portzline has broken the news that Curtis McElhinney has been signed to a 1 year, one way contract. We're waiting on official money to leak out (as usual, the club does not discuss terms), but signing him to a deal around the $900k Michael Leighton was being paid would make a lot of sense. (And since Paul Dainton and Allen York will both be looking for new deals / potentially parting ways, perhaps Leighton would make sense as a veteran backup there, if the money and interest line up...) C-Mac was phenomenal for the Falcons last season, posting 29 wins, 16 losses, and three shootout losses in 49 starts. He posted a 2.32 GAA, and set a franchise record with 9 shutouts. While we're still waiting to see what happens on a new deal for RFA Sergei Bobrovsky, the team also went ahead and took care of another goaltender, signing 2011 draft pick Anton Forsberg to his entry level deal. Looks like he's expected to keep playing in Sweden this season, but don't be surprised if he makes his way across the pond sooner or later to start competing with Oscar Dansk, Bob, and C-Mac for playing time. Meanwhile, what about Bob? All indications are that he wants to return to Columbus, despite rumors that SKA would like to get him back into the KHL. But talks are stalled, and if I had to bet, his agent is waiting for the Vezina Trophy to be announced before really getting serious at the bargaining table.

I was wondering when we'd see some Finnish league players join the organization. When Jarmo Kekalainen was hired as General Manager of the Jackets, you knew there was a good chance that he'd have some players in mind who would be good fits in North America. Apparently, Ilari Melart was one of them, inking a one-year deal with Columbus. Per the press release from the Jackets, Melart is a defenseman who's been with HIFK for the past several seasons. His numbers indicate he's a defensive defenseman, putting up 12-16-28 in 146 career games. The most eye-popping stat however, is the 415 penalty minutes he's put up over that span. From Matias Strozyk of Elite Prospects: A defensive player who likes to play physically. Plays a simple game in the defensive zone and isn't very offensive. Has a decent shot. Needs to improve his speed and skating. He seems like a hard-nosed player who'll add to the defensive depth of the organization. He'll have a chance to win a spot on the Columbus blueline, but is more likely ticketed for Springfield.

Alexsandr Barkov Position: CentreTeam: Tappara (SM-Liiga)Age: 17Date of Birth: September 2, 1995Place of Birth: Tampere, FinlandHt: 6' 3" Wt: 205 lb.Shoots: Left Regular Season Stats GP G A PTS +/- PIM 53 21 27 48 8 18 Playoff Stats GP G A PTS +/- PIM 5 0 5 5 2 3 If Aleksandr Barkov wasn't European (and let's be honest, if he wasn't of Russian Heritage), you'd be hearing about him in the same excited tones that analysts have been using to discuss Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, or Jonathan Drouin. The top rated European skater by NHL central scouting, Barkov has been a phenom his entire hockey carreer, first playing in the SM-Liiga at the age of 16, where he was the youngest player to ever score a point. (In fact, he'd put up 7 goals and 9 assists in 32 games - not bad for someone who had his first pro season before he could legally drive a car.) In his World Juniors debut a few months later, Barkov was the second youngest player in IIHF history to score a goal when he lit the lamp against Slovakia in the quarter finals. This season, he was just shy of a point a game pace for Tappara, and returned to the WJCs where he contributed three goals and four helpers during the Finns seven game campaign. (Oh, and keep in mind that these were the Under-20 WJCs, not the Under-18s.) He's already filling out impressively, he's fast, he's skilled, and he's shown that he can light the lamp against older, bigger, and tougher opponents. He has "future superstar" written all over him, and shows no signs of slowing down. Scouting Reports A very calm center who uses his vision well, Barkov has an excellent offensive game and good size. His very good passing and puckhandling combined with great hands and hockey sense make him a big offensive threat. He plays with high confidence and never seems to be under pressure. Barkov is a creative with a very solid overall package and the skill set to compensate for his below-average skating, making him one of the top prospects for the 2013 NHL Draft. -Matias Strozyk, EliteProspects.com He is already a good-sized center man at 6'2" 205 lbs. as he is actually two weeks shy of being eligible for the 2014 NHL Draft as late '95 birthday. He was the youngest player out on the ice at the Herb Brooks Arena this summer. You could see he was a bit younger by his approach to the game being a tad apprehensive, although he also displayed at times his deceptive moves and skill sets. He is an intelligent player at 16-years old, shows poise with the puck, and good offensive instincts. Overall, he is a valuable all-around player who will return to Finland's WJC roster for a second go-a-round and garner considerable NHL attention this season. -Russ Bitely, USA Hockey, MyNHLDraft.com Why He'd Be A Good Fit In Columbus: Barkov is a phenomenal scoring talent who shows signs of being a decently responsible defensive player as well. While Columbus does have guys like Ryan Johansen, Brandon Dubinsky, and Artem Anisimov up front, it's hard to say if they really have a "WOW" talent like Barkov in the system. (Boone Jenner is a lot of things, but I don't see him or Michael Chaput becoming NHL point-per-game players. Barkov just might.) Even better, he brings the kind of size that would work well alongside guys like Gaborik, Foligno, or even Johansen. The Roster Viking got an eyeful of Barkov while he was running Jokerit for the last two years, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if he liked what he saw. If Columbus decided to make a move into the top five, don't be surprised if Barkov is the reason. Barkov In Action: (Yeah, I know, the music...oye.)

Ever since Nick Gilbert sat on stage two years ago in Seacaucas, NJ, rocked a swagged out bow tie/glasses combo that would make Urkel proud, and brought home the much needed first pick in the draft the NBA lottery has had new meaning in Cleveland. Before the ping pong balls fell Cleveland’s way in 2011 it was a lowly time to be a Cavalier fan. The team had just finished a historically bad season and now we had to sit back and watch the one we made king try to win a title for that all white wearing, Backstreet Boy looking fan base in Miami. Desperate times called for desperate measures and Dan Gilbert delivered. Along with his son Nick, Gilbert flew to the lottery with an entourage that was best described by the Machine Gun Kelly lyric “so Clevleand it’s a god damn shame”. Gilbert flew with the ultimate cleveland hero, Bernie Kosar, who represents all of us Clevelanders longing for the glory days even if we were never alive to see them. He flew with Josh Cribbs, whose loyalty and rare talents allowed us Clevelanders to anoint a kick returner the new king. And to complete Gilbert’s entourage was Browns’ cornerback Joe Haden who exemplified Cleveland’s need for a new star to cling to after the losing the sun a year earlier. Gilbert’s crew, most notably Nick, succeeded in their task. They went to New Jersey with nothing but confidence and brought home hope. The formula worked so well in 2011 that they ran it back in 2012. Once again Bernie, Cribbs, and Haden joined the Gilbert gang in Jersey, along with the Irvings who were attending their second straight lottery as well, but their first as a part of team Gilbert. The results this time around failed in comparison to 2011 but the Lottery was now a date circled on the Cleveland sports calendar. When I asked my buddy if we were having a watch party for the lottery, “I mean, why wouldn’t we” he replied. Which brings us to Tuesday’s lottery. Gilbert once again brought an entourage with him. This time there were no Irving’s, Cribbs, Haden, or even Bernie. Instead, Gilbert’s crew consisted of the aforementioned Machine Gun Kelly, ESPNCleveland’s Tony Rizzo, Iron Chef Michael Symon, a lucky fan, and of course the Cavs’ lucky charm, Nick Gilbert (bowtie and all). 8:30 – The great Jay Bilas gives us a quick breakdown of Ben McLemore’s game, but refutes from uttering the words “wingspan” which keeps fans of the NBA draft drinking game at bay for another month. 8:33 – Heather Cox begins her interview with Anthony Bennett. My living room has already turned into a panic room. “Would we seriously take the guy in the sling that no one has ever heard of!?” 8:36 – Bilas continues to touch on some of the top prospects in the draft. My buddy’s girlfriend asks the obligatory question for the only girl in the room to ask, “Wait is this Cody Zeller related to Tyler?” We all give her props that she knew who Tyler Zeller was in the first place and begin dreaming of the Zellers vs. Hansbroughs rivalry that could develop between Cleveland and Indiana. 8:40 – Bill Simmons and the NBA Countdown crew give us their “Karma Lottery Power Rankings”. The Cavs are nowhere to be found, with Detroit taking the top spot. As much I have disdain for Detroit sports after living with a Detroit fan in college, it’s hard not to agree the Motor City deserves a break after watching Detropia. 8:43 – The whole room starts grilling me on why Scott hates the lottery. This is the most excited this room has been for Cavaliers basketball since Kyrie took down the Thunder a couple months back. 8:45 – Heather Cox begins to announce the representatives on stage for each team. Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond, and Kevin Love are all on stage. The first three make sense coming off strong rookie seasons, but it appears Love was there

The Diff is your weekly Wednesday WFNY look into the amazing world of sports statistics. For a complete log of articles, click this link. Last week, The Diff was on vacation in sunny Tybee Island, Georgia. Apologies for the lack of content. Now, we’re back this week with more MLB stats. In a roundabout way, your 2013 Cleveland Indians somehow sit in a very familiar position: a 26-18 record through 44 games. For those with a poignant memory, that’s exactly where the team was through 44 games in 2012, too, before embarking on one of the worst collapses in baseball history. Today, my plan is to look at what all of the 26-18 teams have done by perusing the deep, dark pages of the MLB record books.   Research background In order to answer this question, I utilized the fantastic “Best n-games streak” function within the Play Index tools over at Baseball-Reference.com. I only subscribed to that website a month ago, but it’s already been one of my favorite sports decisions ever. There is limitless information within just a few mouse clicks over there. I couldn’t possibly recommend a subscription more highly. So, I was able to search for all of the 44-game start-of-season stretches in baseball history. Obviously, schedules have been all sorts of different lengths. My limit for the data below is only for seasons of 144+ games. For the rest, it’s just not comparable enough. I’m also limiting it to teams that started exactly 26-18 in their first 44 games, since ties also used to be a thing. Overall, there were 23 teams that started 26-18 but didn’t finish with 144+ games. Also, there were 41 teams that might have started 26-18 in their first 44 decision, but had a tie in there, so I was unable to truly track it down easily. The results Skipping right to the tables today, here are the results of my search for the 26-18 starts in 44 games for teams with 144+ games in their season in the amazing Baseball-Reference.com database. The rest of today’s article will cover what all of these numbers mean: Future Wins for 26-18 MLB Teams Record # times Avg Pct Per 162 26-18 116 0.552 89.4 Max Q3 Median Q1 Min 104.7 96.6 90.0 83.0 68.0   Playoff Odds for 26-18 MLB Teams Date Range Playoffs Teams Odds From 1898-1993 21 81 26% From 1995-2012 18 35 51% Total 39 116 34%   Run Differential Since 1962 (78 Teams) Max Q3 Median Q1 Min 65 39 26 15 0 Future Correlation: 0.362 Here’s your quick disclaimer for the non-mathematically inclined 1 . Also, here’s your baseball-related statistical disclaimer 2 . The reason for picking 1995: That’s the year the first-ever Wild Card system was put into effect, dramatically increasing the potential for making the playoffs. Then, the reason for later picking 1962: That’s the year the 162-game schedule became the standard in both leagues, hence setting the stage for a relatively reasonable data set of modern baseball history. The 2013 Indians and other research The 2013 Indians, the ones who are currently 26-18, also own a +33 run differential. More on that and how it compares in a moment. It’s also notable to remember that the Tribe started the season on an 8-13 stretch (-17 run differential) and have been 18-5 since (+50 run differential). It’s been a tale of two polar opposite streaks so far from slightly-below-average to best-in-baseball. Last year, I spotted this link from the wonderful John Dewan that described the meaningfulness of the first 10 games of the season. I’d encourage you to check that out and see how it compares to the 44-game stretches I’m looking at for this post. Future Wins Now going into the three detailed sets of stats from above, I’ll begin by looking at the storylines behind the maximum, Q3, median, Q1 and minimum season-wins for teams that started out 26-18. Max – 1963 NYY (104-57): These Yankees weren’t all that impressive to

Yesterday, as WFNY’s Scott Sargent was announcing his trial separation with the NBA Draft Lottery, I found myself nodding along in agreement as I consumed every word of it. Scott is exactly right. The Draft Lottery is the worst. It was kind of fun the first couple years, dreaming of top picks and thinking about potential. In previous years I’ve spent countless hours playing the lottery machine, reading about the top 2 or 3 prospects, and dreaming of what winning the top spot would mean for the team. But the more time you spend wallowing in the murkiness of luck, lethargy, and the tantalizing siren song of the NBA Draft Lottery, the more you realize it’s not a scene you really want to be a part of. As much as I love seeing Nick Gilbert proudly represent the city of Cleveland and the Cavaliers franchise, I’d be perfectly content if I don’t see him on TV again until it’s on a podium holding a trophy. And thus, shortly after Nick Gilbert told the national audience that he, too, was tired of being there, the Cavaliers won the #1 pick in the draft. And in doing so, the Cavaliers opened the door to a world of options and opportunities. The team may or may not be in the lottery again next year, but you have to believe that at worst Nick Gilbert will be sitting in the top row instead of his usual front-left spot on the stage. That’s the fun part of this. Thinking about all the options and potential for roster improvement is exciting. But the reality is, with so many options in front of him, choosing the right move is an enormous responsibility for GM Chris Grant. Of course, there’s also a darker reality to this situation. The truth is, this is the worst draft to have the #1 pick since 2006. There’s no real, clear-cut choice at #1. The decision of who to pick at #1 will require weighing factors such as team need, injuries, immediate impact, long-term upside, etc. In most drafts, there’s an easy choice at #1. This year, it feels a little like picking the lesser of two evils. The good news for Cavs fans is that Chris Grant has done this before. It’s easy to forget already, but just 2 years ago, Kyrie Irving wasn’t the obvious #1 pick that everyone makes him out to be today. There was a lot of debate back then about whether taking Derrick Williams first and someone like Brandon Knight 4th wasn’t the better route for the Cavaliers. Thankfully Grant and Company made the right move then, and the hope is that they make the right move now. But what is the right move for the Cavaliers? That’s a tricky question. In some ways, winning this lottery almost feels like a cruel joke, because the best fit for the Cavaliers right now, at this moment in time, is probably Otto Porter. Porter, of course, would be considered a reach at #1. But Porter fits the biggest immediate need. As a SF, he is a solid two-way player who can help space the floor a bit on offense while buying in to Mike Brown’s defensive scheme. But does Porter have the highest long-term upside? Probably not. The player with the most potential and brightest future might be Ben McLemore. But McLemore isn’t a need for this team right now. Drafting a SG in the top 4 of the draft in back to back seasons is a bitter pill to swallow, even if McLemore is the best player available and the smartest pick 1 . The consensus #1 prospect, however, seems to be Nerlens Noel. With Anderson Varejao getting older and constantly being considered in trade rumors, selecting the center of the future is appealing. And Noel’s raw defensive ability is mesmerizing. But his wire-thin frame is an enormous concern. I’m uncomfortable with the amount of footage I’ve seen of Noel being abused in the post by NBA prospects like Mason Plumlee and Alex Len. Preying on mediocre collegiate talent by using your superior athleticism is one thing, but banging in the post with the NBA’s elite centers when you weigh 206 pounds is a completely different beast. And then there’s also Noel’s surprisingly abysmal offensive skillset. Noel