Dallas Mavericks

Amid rumors of what the Dallas Mavericks will do with the 13th pick in next month's NBA Draft, Earl K. Sneed takes a look at the decisions the front office will have to weigh.

ESPNDallas.com will compare the Mavericks and Clippers in five facets -- other than money -- that could play a role in Chris Paul's free agency decision in a one-per-day series: owners/front office, coaches, co-stars, supporting casts and franchise tradition. We'll focus on Dwight Howard next week. Here’s where the Mavs have to make a heck of a sales pitch. It wouldn’t be difficult for the Mavs to create enough cap space to give Paul a max deal while keeping Shawn Marion and Vince Carter.

No. 13 draft pick slotted to make $1,655,300 in year one.Mavs need all the cap room they can get to make room for Howard. — Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) May 22, 2013 This tweet from Chad Ford sparked one of our famous MMB email chains, so I've condensed it into a post for you all to enjoy. Some really good basketball minds reside here, y'all. Kirk Henderson: Why is he talking Howard and literally everyone else is talking CP3? Alan Smithee: I think there are at least a few people who prefer Dwight Howard. Not me, because I think Chris Paul is a god, but there are people out there. I know one of the ESPN radio programs had Chuck Cooperstein on for a back-and-forth and he's firmly in the Howard corner. Ford probably also looks at the roster and doesn't appreciate the disconnect between Collison's production and how out of favor he fell for the coaching staff (and fans). Jonathan Tjarks: Collison has to been seen to be believed. I certainly didn't appreciate his flaws till I saw him every night. Count me as someone who would take Howard over Paul. Always go with the big man first. It's much easier to find a PG down the road. Alan: I'll say this: all the excellent work from Jonathan, etc. has me really intrigued about Dennis Schroeder. I just wish I believed that Dallas would be willing to take a 19 year old kid and play him. Maybe they platoon him with someone like Calderon, who is big enough to even play with Schroeder. Jonathan: (Mike) Fisher has had the Mavs really high on Saric for awhile. Saric passes the eye test when you watch him play, but then you go and look at his career shooting percentages. I don't think he's a good enough athlete to where he can live in the paint in the NBA. Alan: Yeah, the iffy athlete + iffy jumpshot combination scares me. But I do like the point skills from a wing like that. If the draft-and-stash approach is what's coming, it's going to take something miraculous to competently fill both point guard and center this offseason. Andrew Tobolowsky: It's hard being an idiot about all this stuff, but just as a logical individual--to the extent that I am---it just SEEMS like they don't really like imagining that their failure to get ANYBODY in the draft in a decade is a matter of approach. I agree with everyone that it's hard to get value as low as they usually pick, and obviously even as high as they're picking this year in a pretty weak draft it's hard, but why is it point skills from a wing instead of point skills from a point, why is it shooting ability from a big rather than being big ability for a big---why is it always combo guards. You know? Wouldn't, at some point, whether or not you thought there was much you could do to change something, at least stop getting cute? Obviously, Schroeder or Saric probably saves them the this-year-cap-space problem, and I think I'd be pretty happy about Schroeder. But... Alan: A lot of what you say is true, and I agree with, and makes absolute sense (at least to me). I do think that if you really examine their ledger, saying they didn't get anybody in the draft, while for the most part true, is not the whole story. They most likely see the draft as one of many tools, not a tally of who "won" by picking a keeper rather than a bust. Their '07 pick was used to get Dampier, and the '08 pick Kidd. That's how they'll look at it. Not "well we lost that pick", but "we used this asset to help get a veteran". Of course, getting Kidd and Dampier is one thing, but having no pick in '05 because you just had to have Pavel Podkolzin the previous year is another. And as much as I want to convince myself of something else, I think the Jared Cunningham pick was about saving money for Deron more than anything else. Honestly, at some point, I feel like they're bound to pick somebody OK just by accident. Andrew: That's a good point. That's one thing I was thinking when the Thunder turned out to have the twelfth pick--lots more ways to be good at

Dirk Nowitzki made an appearance with the "Men in Blazers" at Grantland to talk basketball and a little soccer with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund preparing for an all-German Champions League final. Nowitzki offered Michael Davies and Roger Bennett his thoughts on the Mavericks' footballing equivalent, what Mark Cuban can learn from Dortmund, Jurgen Klinsmann's Teutonic streak and LeBron James's questionable claims to soccer. You can listen to the podcast here.

I've read time and again that the 2013 is going to be a weak draft, many point to it as justification for the Mavericks trading potentially trading their lottery pick this year. I think that is a horrible idea, and by the end of this article I hope you'll agree with me. First off, let's discuss what the very definition of a weak draft is. Often the term weak draft is misinterpreted to mean there are no good players in the draft. What it really refers to is the number of protected stars which will come out of the Top 10, or the reverse perspective would be how many Top 10 picks see little to no NBA minutes. The success of picks is extremely hard to determine in the first year as many rookies simply will not see solid minutes their first year. So while the 2011 draft at the moment does appear to have a great many more misses than hits across the board, it's nearly impossible to predict which players may blossom with another year or two under their belt. So let's look at the 2006 draft which is often referred to as the weakest draft in modern history. Looking at the how few of the Top 10 players have risen to any level of stardom with five players never really playing any significant minutes, it's hard to argue the draft was largely a bust. However, let's set a bar of averaging 18 minutes a game as being considering contributing to an NBA team. Looking at that very simplified metric, there are 12 players out of 60 who meet the criteria six of which were picked at 13 or later. Here are players who went at 13 or later in 2006: PHI Thabo Sefolosha 13th pickUTA Ronnie Brewer14th pickPHO Rajon Rondo 21st pickMEM Kyle Lowry 24th pickCLE Daniel Gibson 42nd pickUTA Paul Millsap 47th pick Nearly half the "impact" players from the 2006 draft came after the 13th pick. Hard to imagine a few of those players went so late, isn't it? Let's also remember that Jose Barea was picked up un-drafted by the Dallas Mavericks that year. Now, scouting isn't an exact science. Trying to judge a young player's upside is a huge gamble. However, some teams seems to have the magic touch. It can't just be dumb luck, teams who value the draft focus more on scouting and do better overall. So, let's look at the Dallas Maverick's biggest division rival, the San Antonio Spurs, and compare draft outcomes. Let's first just compare how each team values picks. The easiest way to compare this is perhaps to look at how many times each team gave away their first round picks. Dallas has gone seven years since 1999 without a first round pick versus San Antonio's four. Dallas did get some value out of those trades, most notably Jason Kidd, but when we start looking at each teams draft performance over that period. While San Antontio didn't ultimately retain all these players take a look at their best picks since 1999: Manu Ginobili 1999 57th pickTony Parker 2001 28th pickLouis Scola 2002 55th pickLeandro Barbosa 2003 28th pickTiago Splitter 2007 28th pickGoran Dragic 2008 45th pickGeorge Hill 2008 26th pickDeJuan Blair 2009 37th pick And how Dallas has done: Wang Zhizhi 1999 36th pickPicks traded in 2000, 2001Mladen Sekularac in 2002 54th, never played in the NBAJosh Howard 2003 29thDevin Harris 2004 5th pick via tradeJJ Barea 2006 (undrafted)Roddy B 2009 24th via tradeDominique Jones 2010 25th (via trade)Pick traded 2011Crowder/Sarge/Cunningham 2012 17th (traded down) Framed this way you can really see the differences between a franchise who has a front office philosophy of valuing the draft versus one which sees picks more as trade assets. Many have argued that Dallas' late draft position over in recent years made their pick worthless. But digging even a bit deeper, we can see in recent years, high impact players have been drafted fairly late by teams. Knicks David Lee at 30th in 2005Lakers Marc Gasol (then traded him) at 48th in 2007Celtics Tony Allen 25th in 2004Chicago via Portland Omer Asik 36th in 2008 (traded) and Jimmy Butler 30th in 2011GS Monte Ellis 40

Math once again had its day. The Mavs and Lady Luck once again couldn’t connect as they held their pre-lottery spot and hold the 13th pick in this upcoming draft. The draft will be held on June 27. There was one thing about the lottery that remained consistent when it came to the Mavs as they didn’t move up from their projected spot. That has been the case in each of their 12 appearances in the lottery. The early analysis of this draft suggests that there isn’t a guaranteed difference maker in the lottery. The goal for any team picking outside of the top five will be to find a player who can slide in your current rotation. Once you get past the top 5 players, there’s certainly depth and value available. After a little bit of a down period, it appears the international pool of players might have more intriguing depth this year. Even with more depth, history suggests  it’s more likely that the Mavs are likely to find another Courtney Alexander as opposed to a Kobe Bryant and Karl Malone. Ten years is enough time to go back and look at what the 13th pick has produced. Here’s the list. 2002 – Marcus Haislip (Fred Jones, Bostjan Nachbar, Jiri Welsch) 2003 – Marcus Banks (Luke Ridnour, Reece Gaines, Troy Bell) 2004 – Sebastian Telfair (Kris Humphries, Al Jefferson, Kirk Snyder) 2005 – Sean May (Rashard McCants, Antoine Wright, Joey Graham) 2006 – Tabho Sefolosha (Ronnie Brewer, Cedric Simmons, Rodney Carney) 2007 – Julian Wright (Al Thorton, Rodney Stuckey, Nick Young) 2008 – Brandon Rush (Anthony Randolph, Robin Lopez, Marreese Speights) 2009 – Tyler Hansbrough (Earl Clark, Austin Daye, James Johnson) 2010 – Ed Davis (Patrick Patterson, Larry Sanders, Luke Babbit) 2011 – Markieff Morris (Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic) 2012 – Kendall Marshall (John Henson, Maurice Harkless, Royce White) Those listed after pick No. 13 were the guys immediately selected after them at 14, 15 and 16. There are intriguing names on that collective list, but the list of guys selected at 13 leaves you somewhat dejected. That leaves you with an alternative for the pick – trade it. That’s what ESPN.com’s Chad Ford is suggesting is an option. Multiple sources have told Ford that the Mavs are likely to trade the pick to help create more cap space, potentially to make a run at a big free agent. Ford suggests that it’s to make a run at Dwight Howard. Honestly, it could be for Howard, or for Chris Paul of for any free agent this summer. The cap hold for the 13th pick is $1,655,300. That really doesn’t seem like much but pennies add up when you’re saving and that’s clearly the mindset the Mavs and many teams around the league have. Half of the teams around the league are looking to dump salary to either get out of luxury tax issues or just being frugal. The other half of the league views picks as vital assets. Dallas is in a spot where they can be flexible and determine which half they want to be in. It’s time to go back and remember what Donnie Nelson said at the team’s exit interviews. I asked him if they will consider taking a different approach to the draft, considering they’ll be in the lottery. “We’re still waiting to see who is going to be there come June,” Nelson said. “My gut is that we’ll be as aggressive, if no more so than we’ve ever been. Whether that’s us drafting, acquiring free agents, trade, we will turn over ever rock, believe me.” I don’t know if a front office person can be believed when it comes to the draft or free agency, but he stated they’ll be aggressive when it comes to the draft. Dallas is in a spot where the No. 13 pick can lead to a player for now or help lead to a bigger piece to the puzzle. They’ve got options and wiggle room. Either route they take, they’ll need to make the most of it. Bryan Gutierrez writes about sportsmen. He also attended Ball So Hard University, studying ideologies of Clark Kent. You can follow him on Twitter @BallinWithBryan.

ESPNDallas.com will compare the Mavericks and Clippers in five facets -- other than money -- that could play a role in Chris Paul's free agency decision in a one-per-day series: owners/front office, coaches, co-stars, supporting casts and franchise tradition. We'll focus on Dwight Howard next week. The power forward’s production has dipped significantly after his award-winning 2010-11 season. That statement applies to both Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin.

In the least shocking news of the week, Dallas is now officially locked in to pick 13th in this year's NBA Draft in June. Of course some of us weren't sure what happened... Am I the only one that doesn't understand what just happened? #draftlottery — Dirk Nowitzki (@swish41) May 22, 2013 Which is understandable, I suppose, particularly when you spend well over a decade rocking playoff runs. Almost immediately after the draft lottery, ESPN's draft guru Chad Ford had this to say about the Mavericks Hearing from multiple sources that Mavs likely to trade the No. 13 pick. Want to save cap space for Dwight Howard run ... — Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) May 22, 2013 No. 13 draft pick slotted to make $1,655,300 in year one.Mavs need all the cap room they can get to make room for Howard. — Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) May 22, 2013 Of course, the general reaction from twitter was a resounding "OH GREAT". I'm less concerned that Dallas might move the pick and more concerned that Ford thinks their main target is Howard. Literally everything I have read and heard up until this point indicates Dallas is more interested in Paul than Howard. I also don't really understand why folks would be irritated that Dallas might move the pick. This was always going to be an option and I said so way back in January 4th. That a 13th pick is less valuable than any of the picks before it is really a fairly basic idea, and Dallas essentially sits in no-man's land because this is generally considered a weak draft. I'm sure other folks here at MMB will have smarter or more measured takes at the moment, but right now I'm apprehensive bordering on angry. Between the draft and free agency, things don't really have a positive feel at the moment. Dirk has been and always will be a happy warrior, but circumstances beyond everyone's control (with the exception of closing out the season the way they did) have left the Mavericks at the mercy of everyone else's decisions.

The Dallas Mavericks might not actually use the first lottery pick they've owned in a dozen years. Multiple sources told ESPN.com's Chad Ford that the Mavs are likely to trade the pick to help create the cap space necessary to make a run at Dwight Howard in free agency. The 13th overall pick has a cap hold of $1,655,300. One of the Mavs' future first-round picks is already in the possession of the Oklahoma City Thunder. That pick, which is top-20 protected through 2017, was originally given up in the deal that brought Lamar Odom to Dallas.

The ping pong balls didn't bounce the Mavericks' way. The Mavs didn't move up in the NBA draft lottery, so they own the 13th overall pick. The Mavs had only a 2.2 percent chance of moving into the top three picks, including an 0.6 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick. While this was the first time Dallas has been in the lottery in a dozen year, it continues a trend for the Mavs. Dallas has never moved up in 12 lottery appearances.