Fantasy Football

November 18, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham (80) tries to break free from Oakland Raiders cornerback Mike Mitchell (34) after making a catch in the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The Saints defeated the Raiders 38-17. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports Before Who Dat Nation gets all indignant at the audacity of considering Jimmy Graham might somehow leave the New Orleans Saints, please remember this is merely presenting an idea based on the fact he is a free agent next year.  Graham figures to become one of the premier targets in 2014 and a bidding war should kick off if his current team can’t find the money to pay him. New Orleans Saints searching for salary cap relief for Graham Based on current numbers the New Orleans Saints overtook the Dallas Cowboys in salary cap problems.  Though they squeezed under the cap this year thanks to some restructured contracts they are not looking good after the 2013 season.  Looking ahead to 2014 they will have over $143 million committed to their roster.  That is almost $20 million over the current 2013 cap.  While experts see a slight bump coming next year it will not go that high.  Put simply, New Orleans is in for some big changes.  The worst part is a number of key players are set to become free agents by then.  Linebacker Jonathan Vilma and center Brian De La Puente are both expecting new deals, but the big fish of the bunch is Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham.  His importance to the Saints offense cannot be understated. Missing only one game last season he put up 982 yards and 9 touchdowns.  Another great year means his price will skyrocket, perhaps to a point where the Saints can’t pay it or will have to gut a good part of their roster to do so.  The franchise tag will likely become an option.  Then again, based on his production Graham has an excellent argument to classify himself as a wide receiver, which would bump the number from $6 million to $10 million.  For a cash-strapped team, that is a huge difference.  If Graham takes this route then his likelihood of hitting the open market goes up considerably. Redskins and Robert Griffin III waiting on Fred Davis When that happens the sharks will circle almost immediately.  One team that figures to enter that sweepstakes is the Washington Redskins.  Their owner Daniel Snyder has no qualms about spending big in free agency if he thinks it will help his team win. Washington couldn’t do that this off-season because of a salary cap penalty installed by the NFL against the Redskins and Cowboys for overspending during the uncapped 2010 season.  That penalty expires next year.  By then Snyder and head coach Mike Shanahan should have plans for a very aggressive approach in free agency.  As it stands the team will pay 48 players on the current roster.  That could leave them with somewhere around $36 million in cap space to spend.  Their interest in Jimmy Graham at that point depends on the future of tight end Fred Davis.  Early in the 2012 season he developed a strong connection with star rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III.  Sadly a torn Achilles ended his year.  The Redskins, devoid of finding a replacement, brought Davis back on a cheap one-year deal in hopes he returns to form.  If he can’t, then tight end becomes a big hole for the team to fill.  Snyder won’t hesitate about pressing for the 27-year old Graham. Everything rests on how far the Saints are willing to go to keep him in New Orleans.

Oct 7, 2012; Charlotte, NC, USA; Seattle Seahawks guard James Carpenter (77) on the sidelines during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports Well, you can’t say I didn’t tell you so. When the Seattle Seahawks selected Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, I believed they were getting a top five talent. It was my assertion that Russell Wilson would have easily been a top five pick if he were the height of Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, possibly even in contention for the number one overall pick. Wilson not only met my expectations after being named the starter, but he exceeded anything I thought he could possibly do and looked like he simply picked back up where he left off at Wisconsin. The emergence of Wilson combined with the production of the Seattle defense has people thinking Super Bowl in 2013. The Seahawks certainly have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, and it only got better with the additions of Percy Harvin, Michael Bennett, and Cliff Avril. This is truly one of the more impressive looking teams you’ll see in the NFL this year, and here are three players–one from each of the last three draft classes–that could have a big breakout year in 2013. Third Year — James Carpenter, OG Carpenter has already been a starter for the Seahawks, but has only played in 16 games so far in the two years he’s been in the NFL.  In his rookie season, Carpenter suffered a knee injury that caused him to miss a few games, and then a concussion caused him to miss another couple of contests. In his second NFL season, Carpenter was knocked out by another knee injury but figures to play a huge role in the Seahawks offense in 2013 as one of the strongest players on the team. He started out his NFL career at right tackle but made the transition to left guard where–if he can stay healthy–gives the Seahawks one of the more potent LT/LG combos in the league with Russell Okung. Carpenter’s health will be key for the Seahawks in developing their running game, something that has been so critical to their success the last couple of years.

Dec 16, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Brown (86) catches a pass in warm-ups before a game against the Carolina Panthers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports The San Diego Chargers finally decided to clean house. With a new GM and head coach, they hope to return to the playoffs as soon as possible with a team that is going to look a lot different in 2013. Probably the weakest area on the Chargers’ roster was the offensive line last year, and they lost arguably their best player in Louis Vasquez to the rival Denver Broncos. If San Diego is unable to protect Philip Rivers, things could get really ugly in a hurry. Still, this team has a few intriguing playmakers on both sides of the ball, and some young players that could be primed for a breakout season. The Chargers made a couple of big splashes during and after the draft when they used a second round pick to select former Notre Dame star linebacker Manti Te’o, and then signed pass rusher Dwight Freeney, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts. The loss of Melvin Ingram could prove to be huge for the Chargers, so they are going to need some players to really step things up. Here are three players I think could have a big 2013 campaign, and we’ll look at one player from each of the last three rookie classes. Third Year — Vincent Brown, WR Many thought the 2011 third round pick would have a breakout season in 2012 after the Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he broke his ankle and missed the entire 2012 season. With his ankle fully healed, Brown is back and ready to break out in 2013. He has been rotating with incumbent starting WR Malcom Floyd this offseason, and should be able to make a significant impact on the Chargers’ offense. Mike McCoy says that “without a doubt” Brown will be a big part of the team’s plans moving forward, and maybe we’ll see him working in the slot as well as on the outside. Brown has excellent hands and runs good routes, and I think he is a real sleeper this season.

Watch. RT. Rinse, lather, repeat #TrustMe RT @travis1116 @me check out this vid I made, Tony Romo's Odyssey

A week after beginning a 30-day sentence, former Bengals and Patriots wideout Chad Johnson was released from jail. SOURCE: Associated PressFantasy Spin:Johnson's attorney asked the judge to reconsider and she released Johnson after he apologized for not taking his previous court appearance seriously. He hasn't caught a pass in the NFL since Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants.

For as much as he knows you couldn't care less about his fantasy draft, Cory is sharing a few items you need to take away from his experience.

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports There are two pieces of advice I can give you about the running back position as you prepare for your 2013 Fantasy Football league drafts. First, if you don’t own a stud “back,” chances are slim to zilch of you owning a fantasy championship when the season ends. So you need to make that a priority and nab one quick. However, before you do heed the warning of my second piece of advice, the only dependable thing about top 10 projected NFL running backs in fantasy drafts is – they are not dependable. Now go find your back, best of luck. Before I state my argument based on statistical proof, I will first tell you that when it comes to Fantasy Football, I am the old guy and a data nerd through and through. I’m pretty much set in my ways, am extremely conservative and hold hard and fast to the trends that have made me successful through the years. One of those trends relevant to this article is, I never want to be in the top half of the draft. Stick with me, there is a method to my madness. For the sake of this article, I have gleaned through five years of data for support. I took the preseason rankings of the top 10 running backs and compared the list to the actual top 10 of each season. The findings will surprise you and possibly take away some confidence you have in your projected top backs. Of the five years, five of the top 10 backs actually finish in the top 10 just three times. In the remaining two years, only three were able to clinch a top-10 spot.  In five years of data, not one time did a projected number one running back finish the season in the top spot. Understandably. that is not an easy feat. But when I throw in the fact that only two projected top-three running backs (Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings and Arian Foster, Houston Texans) finished the season as a top-three back, that should be enough to scare the bejesus out of you when selecting a top-three running back. By the way, Peterson did that three times in the five years and Foster once. During the 2011 Fantasy Football season, not one running back projected to be in the top three finished that season in the top 10! Yet, three individuals used a topthree pick to select one of the three monster busts. Is that a frightening circumstance? You betcha. That is why I prefer to comfortably sit in the bottom half of the draft with the knowledge I won’t have to wait as long as that poor sob in the front half gambling on a running back that could be a complete bust to make my next selection. You can call it whatever you want; old fashioned or boring or far too conservative. At the end of the season, I usually call it winning. My advice to you, look back through the last several years of data on the running backs you are targeting, find the guys that produce year in and year out, they do exist I promise. The big names at the top of your drafts certainly look more “flashy” on paper, and you may even win some kind of award for best preseason draft. But preseason awards are almost a kick to an uncomfortable area when you finish in the muddled middle at season’s end. Avoid the hype, hoopla and fanfare on draft day. Stick to the basics, trust in the number crunching you took the time and effort to do prior to the draft. Plus, your roster will gain the flash it lacked in the preseason as you’re walking away from the table with your pockets full of Mr. Preseason Flash’s “Benjamins” when your team wins the league. Jim Heath is a Fantasy Football writer for RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @jim_heath, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google

The Texas Longhorns haven’t been the Longhorns we’ve been accustomed to seeing since 2009, which was Colt McCoy’s last year in Austin. Losing the QB with the most wins in your school’s history would be a blow for any program but it has made UT a shell of its former self. The next year the Longhorns went 5-7 and gradually got better. But an 8-5 season and a 9-4 season is not something the Longhorns and Coach Mack Brown should be proud of given their past success. But there is hope and this year’s team could be the team to bring them back to prominence. Texas ended last year 9-4 but had a good win in the Valero Alamo Bowl to finish the season. They did lose some key members of that team. The defense lost a lot of talent to the NFL like safety Kenny Vaccaro and defensive end Alex Okafor. The defense wasn’t great even with them playing but they also suffered a litany of injuries especially to the linebackers. They gave up a lot of yards and missed a lot of tackles. With a healthier defense and the return of probable first round draft pick Jackson Jeffcoat from injury this defense can make some noise. The offense on the other hand has the potential to be explosive as they showed in spurts last year. They return QB David Ash with another year under his belt and a host of weapons. They bring back slot guy Jaxson Shipley, speedster Mike Davis and utility man DJ Monroe. We can’t forget about a stable of talented running backs including former top recruit Johnathan Gray. The offense was already good but with a more experienced quarterback and improved play along the offensive line, this offense could be elite. What most people will remember about last season is the 62-21 beating they received at the hands of rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Over the last three years this team has been very inconsistent. But there are two constants on this team: talent and Mack Brown. With another good recruiting class coming in and the returning upperclassmen this team can easily compete for the title in a weakened Big 12 due to departures and possibly a BCS bowl game.

The Broncos wanted a hard-nosed back in the draft and selected Montee Ball in the second. The former Wisconsin star could be a fantasy stud.

Dallas Cowboys' 90-Man Roster: Team Needs and Roster Depth