Hockey

My heart can't take much more of this, my goodness HOW ABOUT JOHNNY BOYCHUK TONIGHT EH

There has been much debate if Carlyle's defensive system that claims to pushes shots has been beneficial and effective to the leafs. That is, the typical comment is that even though the leafs are being outshot, they are giving up more "lower quality" chances from a further distance and minimizing quality scoring chances close up. How To Measure Effectiveness of Carlyle's Strategy? Below I will try to quantify the "effectiveness" of Carlyle's strategy. There are a number of imperfect ways to measure effectiveness of the defensive system. Two of them are 1. How well the system minimizes shot against (SA) as a proxy for minimizing scoring chances against 2. How well the system maximizes the ratio of shots for to shots against (SF/(SF+SA) as a proxy for how well the team "outchancing" the competition. Using Ninjastat's supershot tracker the shots for and against the leafs in road games for 2012 and 2013 were outputted. Note that, fenwick or corsi events (blocked shots, shots on goal and missed shots) from various distances are not available and so in this study we will use shots on goal as a "proxy" for Fenwick Close (actually scoring chances) in this analysis. Shots Against Skinnyfish has done a thorough analysis of shots against here. My focus was primarily looking at the shot differential change in 2012 vs 2013 leaf team. This analysis didn't compare earlier leaf teams as the team roster was different (Kubina, Kaberle, Poni, Antropov, Moore, Stajan etc) who were actually quite effective at outshooting competition. Looking at the 2012 vs 2013 leaf results (see spreadsheet) we see this current team has given up fewer shots as a percentage below 30 feet at a cost of more shots at a distance greater then 30 feet. On a per game basis, they have also given up fewer shots between 0 to 10 feet and 20 to 30 feet at a cost of more shots between 10 to 20 feet and dramatically more shots beyond 40 feet. The leafs have been effective at decreasing the proportion and quantity of shots from quality area (close up) at the cost of a large increase of shots from low quality areas (far away). This fact is probably known to most or at least evident to those that looked into it with some detail. In fact, even HNIC and Mirtle and a number of bloggers have discussed this topic. What is not answered is does it matter and if so how much? More on that later. Shot Differential The alternate method to review is shot differential defined as SF/(SF+SA) and develop a proxy for scoring chances (or Fenwick Close) at each of these distances. This is shown in the table for 2012 vs 2013 teams. Again, the leafs have improved their SF% (shot differential) by 3.7% within 0 to 10 feet. That is impressive. However, any gains in fewer shots and outscoring that Carlyle and the team gained at 0 to 10 feet is completely overwhelmed by the team being massively out shot beyond 10 feet. The problem again is does this tradeoff of allowing fewer high quality scoring chances close in at the cost or more low risk scoring chances from further out matter? And if so how much? Weights and SH% At this point, we should mention that all typical shot differentials are unweighted in that they treat shots, corsi or fenwick events as the same regardless if they are from 0 to 10 feet or beyond 30 feet. This treatment would be questioned by most coaches and many fans as a shot from 0 to 10 feet is much more dangerous then a shot beyond 30 feet. However shot differential don't care and they could possibly penalize a team who allows more shots from outside. To get by the problem with the using raw shot data, most NHL coaches track scoring chances. The scoring chance team data is something which is not available though some bloggers track and publish this data so that is a possible avenue to investigate. The method I use to determine the "effectiveness" of Carlyle's system and adjust shots for their quality is from this gem of entry b

The San Jose Sharks have come to terms on a contract extension with forward Logan Couture, according to Brodie Brazil of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area on Monday night. The extension is a five-year, $30 million deal, which will carry an annual average value of $6 million, according to Bob McKenzie of TSN. Couture is entering the final year of a two-year, $5.75 million contract. The 24-year-old forward was scheduled to become a restricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2013-14 season. Originally selected with the No. 9 overall selection in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, Couture has collected 89 goals and 78 assists for 167 points in 232 career regular season games. He completed the ’13 playoffs as a point-per-game player (five goals, six assists) and is largely viewed as the Sharks’ primary building block heading into the future. In addition to Couture, Dan Boyle, Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are entering the final years of their contracts in 2013-14.

Among the many items on the Kings‘ agenda this summer was re-signing restricted free-agent defenseman Slava Voynov to a new contract. Consider it done. The Kings announced on Tuesday that they have reaced an agreement with Voynov on a six-year contract. LA Kings Insider Jon Rosen reported the deal is for $25 million. Lisa Dillman of the LA Times reported the same details. A quick calculation shows the contract is worth $4.167 million on a salary-cap hit, which seems like a pretty great deal for both the Kings and Voynov. There is no denying that Voynov has a tremendous amount of upside. Despite playing on the blue line, he was one of their most consistent scorers in the playoffs. He was tied withJeff Carter in both goals (six) and points (13) for the team lead for the Kings. His goals always seemed to come at the right time, too, as four of them were game-winners. It followed a regular season in which he had six goals and 19 assists. Voynov, just 23, has only been with the Kings for a season-and-a-half but has already established himself as a future fixture for the Kings and getting him under contract was important. As was getting it done quickly. Outside of Roman Josi signing a seven-year, $28-million contract earlier this offseason — yup, Voynov’s deal still looks very nice — there hasn’t been a real market set on the going rate for RFA defensemen, so the Kings were able to set a price they wanted with a little more ease. Voynov was a second-round pick (No. 32 overall) by the Kings in the 2008 draft. He is just one reason why the blue line in LA looks set for a long time to come with Drew Doughtyand Jake Muzzin – who is also a RFA this summer. The Kings have plenty of other things they have to figure out this summer, but re-signing Voynov is a great place to start.

... And there were plenty of other close calls.

What has to happen for two teams to combine for five goals in a period? A little luck, for one thing. It helps when the bounces are incredibly conducive to goal-scoring, and we mean incredibly. Case in point: Patrice Bergeron's 4-3 goal, which was the direct result of one of the most fortuitous bounces we're bound to see in this Stanley Cup Final, as Zdeno Chara's wrist shot deflected high off the boards behind the goal, up onto the goal, and then down into the crease and right onto the stick of Bergeron. Ever the opportunist, Bergeron didn't waste the freebie and finished the Rube Goldbergian play off by putting the puck into the goal. Thanks, hockey gods! That was the wackiest moment in a truly wacky second period, where Game 4 between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Boston Bruins turned into an unexpected track meet Really, it seemed less like the Stanley Cup Final we've been watching for the past week and more like a game between the Flyers and the Penguins.

SCF Game 4 Blackhawks @ Bruins : 3rd Period Thread

Chris Kelly, dude, it could be 4-4 right now, HOW DID YOU MISS THAT Wellness check! What's on tap, y'all?

The CBC's opening musical montage for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final did not disappoint:

Yesterday evening, TSN's Insider Trading segment revealed scoops about Kris Letang's future, the goaltending rumor mill, the Flyers' buy-outs, Rangers contract issues, Valtteri Filppula's contract demands and other juicy tidbits. This evening's Insider Trading segement, which included James Duthie, Pierre LeBrun, Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie, discussed the following topics: McKenzie says that either Joe Sakic's being honest about the Avalanche not wanting to bring partially Denver-raised Seth Jones to Denver, and as such, they're trying to cushion the blow that is bringing Nathan McKinnon or Jonathan Drouin to Denver...Or he's posturing in an attempt to convince the Florida Panthers or Tampa Bay Lightning to swap picks. McKenzie doesn't believe that the teams will bite; Continue reading "TSN’s Insider Trading segment for Wednesday"