Houston Astros

Movin' On Up Lance McCullers, Jr. missed out on a lot of preseason Top-100 lists, and we speculated at the time that he had just missed out on many of them. His emergence into the MLB.com Top 100 Prospects list confirms it. That makes six Astros prospects now on the list: Jonathan Singleton (25), Carlos Correa (28), George Springer (52), Jarred Cosart (82), Delino DeShields, Jr. (93), and McCullers. Has Springer Sprung? Speaking of Spriner... while discussing McCullers' movement onto the list, the TCB staff began to discuss some of the members of the Astros farm system, and one George Springer came up. The specific question was whether or not his strikeout rate was likely to prevent him from becoming a star (through 42 games, Springer had a 29.0% strikeout rate). First, let me say that opinion is mixed. Now, let me take you on a journey. Beginning with the 2006 season, FanGraphs allows you to sort statistical leaders in the minors. When searching for Texas Leaguers who had a 28.0% or higher strikeout rate, a grim assortment of busts came scrolling through my computer screen. Names like Brandon Wood, Taylor Teagarden, and Mike Wilson. The questions we began to wonder were threefold: 1) Does Springer's walk rate help offset his strikeout tendencies? 2) Does his power help offset his strikeout tendencies? and 3) Does his position help offset his strikeout tendencies? Springer's 0.44 BB/K rate is second-highest among the group that has struck out at least 29.0% (behind Johnny Whittleman). His ISO is 38 points above the next-highest on the list (Brandon Wood). As clack points out, there has been a baseball-wide trend upward in strikeout rates. Simply, it's becoming part of the game. Maybe this doesn't mean anything. But it's not exactly the grandest list to appear on, at any rate. Fanning the Flames Continuing on our trend, here is a list of the highest K% in the Texas League this season (min. 100 PAs): I'm sure I don't have to point out how many of them play for the Corpus Christi Hooks. And Now For Something Completely Different This is not minor league-related (yet.) I don't care. Mark Appel has one of the biggest starts of his college career today, when he goes up against UCLA in the last regular season series he'll ever have. His team's postseason aspirations are almost nil. The pressure is on. So what did he do to prepare? If you guessed dancing with kids at a children's hospital, then you're good. Real good. Not sure how his draft stock will be affected by his 20 dancing tool. We'll have to wait until June 6 to find out. Triple The Pleasure On Sunday, Tyler Heineman hit the first home run of his professional career. It matched his career college numbers. The last time Heineman hit a home run, it was February 21, 2012, and he was in college. The pitcher was Harper White of Cal State Northridge, who'd spent the previous two seasons as an outfielder for Oxnard College. White only made it a third of an inning, though he'd pitch against Washington later that season and record three strikeouts, which improved his college career numbers: 2 G, 0-1, 1.1 IP, 4 H, 9 ER, 6 BB, 3 K. Heineman didn't even hit a single home run his entire senior year in high school. Which makes it especially uncanny that last night, he hit his first professional triple. Within a week of his home run. Don't ever let anyone tell you that Lancaster isn't a ridiculous run environment. Heineman also only hit one triple in college, though for that one you don't have to go back quite so far. It came on March 24, 2012. It came off of Washington State's Richie Ochoa. He also hit one triple his senior year of high school. He's on a roll. Steady Stassi Max Stassi took a little while after coming back from injury before he started to make an impact, but after yesterday, he now has a nine-game hitting streak. In three of those nine games, he's had multiple hits, including 5 doubles. Raising DeShields Delino DeShields made an appearance la

Some of the better pitching prospects in the organization pitched yesterday. Cosart looked good in his start against Fresno only allowing two runs in a loss. The combination of Doran and Tropeano has been pretty effective all year, with Doran picking up his sixth win and Tropeano picking up his fifth save. Velasquez continued where he left off last time out, and pitched a gem in his piggy-back outing. Here are the rest of the stat lines from last night’s games. OKC – 1 Fresno – 4 Jonathan Villar – 0/4, 2 K Brett Wallace – 2/2, 2 BB - Really beasting it at OKC Austin Wates – 2/4, 2 2B, 1 RBI Jarred Cosart (L) – 6 IP, 6 Hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR Philip Humber – 0.1 IP, 0 Hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K Kevin Chapman – 0.2 IP, 0 Hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K Rhiner Cruz – 1 IP, 4 Hits, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR CC – 10 NW Arkansas – 4 George Springer – 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SB (15), 1 CS (4) Domingo Santana – 2/4, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K Jonathan Meyer – 3/5, 1 HR (4), 1 2B, 4 RBI Michael Burgess – 2/4, 1 2B, 1 K Max Stassi – 3/4, 2 2B, 3 RBI - 9 game hitting streak Bobby Doran (W) – 5 IP, 5 Hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR Nick Tropeano (S) – 4 IP, 4 Hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR LC – 8 Inland Empire – 7 Joe Sclafani – 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SB (4), 2 Errors (3) Andrew Aplin – 2/4, 1 2B, 1 K Preston Tucker – 3/4, 2 RBI, 1 K Tyler Heineman – 1/3, 1 3B Delino DeShields – 0/0, 1 BB, 2 SB (9) - First game back from injury Blair Walters – 3.1 IP, 7 Hits, 5 Runs, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K Jonas Dufek – 3.2 IP, 3 Hits, 2 Runs, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Theron Geith (W) – 1 IP, 0 Hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K Travis Ballew (S) – 1 IP, 1 Hit, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K QC – 4 Wisconsin – 7 Teoscar Hernandez – 0/5, 4 K Carlos Correa – 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Error (6) Terrell Joyce – 1/4, 1 HR (2), 1 RBI, 1 K Rio Ruiz – 0/2, 2 BB, 2 K Ariel Ovando – 1/3, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K - His double hit off the wall Roberto Pena – 1/4, 1 2B, 2 RBI Jamaine Cotton (L) – 3 IP, 7 Hits, 6 Runs, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K Gerardo Sanchez – 2 IP, 1 Hit, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR Vincent Velasquez – 4 IP, 1 Hit, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K - Another great outing! This Weekend’s Scheduled Starting Pitchers (According To Team Website): OKC - Brad Peacock, Asher Wojciechowski, Brett Oberholtzer (Game 1) TBD (Game 2) CC - Michael Foltynewicz, TBD, TBD LC - Chris Devenski, David Rollins, Luis Cruz QC - Lance McCullers, TBD (Game 1) TBD (Game 2), TBD

Ht./Wt.: 6'3"/192 lbs.B/T: R/RDOB: 10/3/91 Summary In 2011, fresh off a season in which they were the runners-up in the College World Series, UCLA went 35-24, won the Pac 10, and eventually lost to UC Irvine in the NCAA Division I Tournament. Their top two arms, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer, both went in the top three overall picks of the MLB Draft, and everyone figured UCLA would have to take a step back and reload before they could compete again nationally. Only then a funny thing happened. Sophomore starter Adam Plutko, who had been drafted in the 6th round by the Houston Astros out of Glendora High School in California, began to surprise everyone. Tehe Bruins won 48 games, a share of the Pac-10 crown, and the NCAA Los Angeles Regional and Los Angeles Super Regional, earning a trip to the College World Series, where they lost to Florida State and eventual champion Arizona. This year, Plutko returned as the unquestioned ace of the staff. A classic fastball-changeup-slider pitcher who can mix in a curveball from time to time, Plutko works his stuff up in the zone. He's a classic flyball pitcher (a style that tends to favor college pitchers). It's interesting that he was in the same UCLA rotation as Trevor Bauer, because their mechanics and styles are extremely similar. Unfortunately for Plutko, he doesn't have Bauer's stuff, but the mechanics here are extremely sound. The knock on Plutko is his control. Over 90 innings this season, he's walked 25 batters -- and that's a step up from 2012, when he walked 47 in 119.2 innings. But that owes partly to the fact that he pitches up and away, which is a zone that reportedly gets fewer strike calls in the college ranks, and it's an area where many coaches tell their kids not to swing. A lot of scouts think that more aggressive batters, such as those found in the pros, could help bail Plutko out, even if he doesn't improve his command, which he's likely to do. MLB Ceiling Middle of the rotation starter. His stuff isn't good enough, and he isn't projectable enough, to ever be a high strikeout pitcher. But if he can increase his command, and if hitters are aggressive against him in he pro game, he can lower his walk numbers and increase his strikeouts. It's a tough road to hoe, but Trevor Bauer may be the perfect example of his ceiling, albeit Plutko is destined to have lower strikeout rates. In the right ballpark - Dodger Stadium or Petco Park, for instance - his style of pitching could lead to some good results. MLB Floor Back of the rotation starter. I think of Adam Plutko a little like Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie walks too many guys, doesn't strike enough guys out, and induces too many flyballs, too many of which leave the park. Yet, he's still able to be somewhat effective. Plutko's mechanics are sound enough that he could become an innings eater, consistently hitting the 200 mark. Projected Draft Round It's hard to tell; there are those who think he could go in the last half of the first round, but to me it's more likely that he falls until at least midway through the second, if not into the third round. Quotes and Video MLB Draft Countdown: He doesn't have front-line stuff, but he by no means will be an afterthought on draft day. His experience and successes pitching in one of the toughest conferences in college baseball will no doubt draw some notice, as will his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. Driveline Baseball: Plutko's delivery is pretty good all around. If I had to nitpick, I'd just say that he seems to extend at the pitching elbow a bit more than I'd like after ball release and doesn't have the best forearm pronation in his recovery phase. This could lead to irritation to the elbow and eventual bone chips due to repeated collisions of the bones in the back of the elbow and the forearm. However, it's not a large mechanical flaw as it pertains to ulnar collateral ligament damage, which is the major issue that most teams want to avoid. BBProspectReport.

Wednesday night something weird happened (no, not snocones). Jose Veras entered the game to rock music, fans throwing up a "V' sign with their arms and this playing on video board: Credit: Astros. Thanks, to Brian T. Smith for getting this The ballpark video entertainment crew has always been top notch and it's good to see that despite all the other changes going on around the Astros they're still producing some killer work. More importantly what this means is that Jose Veras is now the Astros bonafide closer. If case you haven't been paying attention to the Astros, Veras has secured a win for the Astros in eight of 14 victories. Of course, those of you that read our site regularly know that we use a newer statistic to help assess the effectiveness in a starter. For relievers in particular we like to look at the shutdown and meltdown statistics. Veras rates well in those statistics as well with nine shutdowns to only two metldowns. Checking Veras' current numbers to his career numbers we see that he could give up a few more hits, walk a few more batters and give up a few more home runs; However, his FIP is lower than his ERA and relievers are volatile bunch so it's hard to predict how he'll perform the rest of the season. To this point, though, Veras has been the Astros best reliever and has motivated the Astros video production crew to make a killer graphic.

Summary At first look, Clinton Hollon doesn't stand out as a high end pitching prospect because of his size which is on the small side. He's 6-1 and a 195 pounds. He's not that 6-3 frame that so many scouts drool over. However, once he starts throwing, he immediately grabs your attention. His arm speed stands out and is the source for his electric fastball. Hollon has seen his stock move all over the place as some clubs are a bit weary of him due to some injury issues last year. He couldn't pitch in the showcase circuit last summer because of some forearm tightness which prevented him from being properly evaluated early on and the injury itself has some scary ties. By itself, tightness isn't scary, but it can be tied to more significant elbow issues in some cases. Given the injury history and his imperfect mechanics, he caries a bit of a risk. He has inconsistent leg drive and will sometimes "fall" over his front leg instead of drive to it which reduces the force coming from his lower body. Because he falls into his front leg, his core has to create some force and leads to some excess rotation and lean to the first-base side. That leads to some control issues. The arm comes through in a 3/4 arm slot that is a fairly clean arm clean arm action. His fastball sits in the low 90s and has reached 95-97 at times but doesn't have a lot of movement. His best off-speed pitch is his power curve as some places and his coach describes it, but some call it his slider. Given the low 80's velocity of the pitch, it's more of a slider pitch. He also throws a softer curve that's in the mid-70's and a change-up in the low 80's that has some cutting action on it. Floor Outside of the usual spiel about being a career minor-leaguer, his major league floor is of a reliever with arm issues and a strong fastball/slider combination. Ceiling There's just not enough indication that he can be a top of the rotation starter. He has the fastball velocity and breaking ball to be mid-rotation starter and while he's shown the feel for a change-up, he hasn't shown enough consistency to it to be a strong enough pitch for a front-line starter. He could also have some value as a late-inning reliever because of the fastball/slider combination. He shows some similarities to Jeremy Guthrie. Projected Draft Round He's ranked 94th in Baseball America's Top 250 for this years draft and that puts him in the 3rd round range. I can see him getting taken in second half of the 2nd round or later into the 4th round. College Commitment: Kentucky Will He Sign? He's committed to Kentucky and there haven't been many rumors about him being a large signability risk, or any worse than any other high school pitcher. However, he fits the profile of a pitcher who could improve his value in college to an upper tier level similar to Sonny Gray. Bibliography Your browser does not support iframes. Perfect Game Video Collection Perfect Game: Clinton Hollon is a 2013 RHP/OF with a 6-1 195 lb. frame from Lexington, KY who attends Woodford County HS. Very solid well proportioned athletic build, has got stronger in the last six months. Fast paced side step delivery, pretty busy with a big slide across the rubber, will get cross body at times, not consistent with his front side and will spin off, clean and fast arm action, deep arm circle, compact 3/4's arm slot. Low 90's fastball, had 93-94 mph whenever he wanted it, very good running life at times, can throw to both sides of the plate. Power curveball with very good depth at times, release is most inconsistent on curveball at present. Nice feel for change up, good cutting action. Mixed his pitches well and showed confidence in each. Nice early season outing for a top prospect, arm strength and secondary pitches were there and he looked healthy and strong. Signed with Kentucky. Coast2Coast Prospects: The #3 high schooler according to ESPN's Super 60, Hollon is an electric arm with some power stuff.

Not the whole draft, just that 1.1 pick in which the Astros drafted Carlos Correa over the likes of Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, and Kevin Gausman. Those are the two prospects that seem to be creating the most buzz surrounding the results of the draft and have at least a few Astros fans questioning Jeff Luhnow and former Scouting Director, Bobby Heck's decision to trump consensus and take Correa. This was a topic that I was planning on covering this coming Sunday on The AMP with Anthony and Tim, but after a thirty email discussion among the TCB staff, I had to put it into article form. By no mean, do any of us indicate that Correa is a bust or not a good prospect. But, it does create for good discussion as we approach the 2013 draft and look back on 2012. Note: Order of emails based on content and relevance to the specific topic, not order at which emails were written. CRPerry13 I still am excited to see what Carlos Correa can do...but with Buxton raking, Zunino already in AAA (though struggling), and Kevin Gausman starting for Baltimore tomorrow....it kinda sucks we have to wait a zillion years to see if Correa pans out. Tim Still have to wait to see if Buxton pans out... Brooks Correa is 9 months younger and making a larger step in competition than Buxton (outside of last season) as well as handling some injuries. He still has a .373 wOBA while being one of the youngest players in low-A and playing a more premium position than Buxton. I've got no concerns. CRPerry13 I'm not concerned either. I just said it's a bummer to see all 3 of the guys taken behind him having so much quick success. Tim Jeter didn't have his first .800 OPS season until the age of 20. Even if he continues to struggle it doesn't necessarily mean the Astros made the wrong pick. AGirlintheSouth And let's not forget that the right pick on Monday can be the wrong pick by Wednesday. This isn't a science, it's an art. There are no guarantees. With that said, patience with a teenager goes a LONG way. He's still changing physically with great regularity and every time it does he has to make adjustments. I don't worry about a guy figuring it out in low-A. I worry about a guy who never figures it and and can't get to AA. Sean Just to be clear. I'm not saying the Astros made a bad pick or the wrong pick with Correa. I still think Correa was a great pick for the Astros. Your always going to have scrutiny when you take a lower floor/higher ceiling guy. We all knew that Zunino and Gausman would fly through the minors. The fact that Gausman is up is a sign that the Orioles are exploring every avenue prior to the trade market. Clack It’s impossible to draw conclusions on 160 PA of a player’s first appearance in A-ball. Certainly the performance is encouraging for Correa and Buxton, given their age. But the stats are less predictive at this point than the subjective scouting impressions. I happened to look at Bubba Starling’s minor league stats, since he was compared by some as similar to Buxton, as a high school prospect, before the draft last year. Starling was in EST his first year, had an .856 OPS last year in rookie ball, and in 140 or so PA in A ball (Lexington) this year, has a .215, .284, .356, .639 slash line. I was surprised that a writer at Royals Review already placed him on the "1st round bust" list. It seems a little early to say that, doesn’t it? That said, it may not help people’s perception that the Royals are pulling him off of the team to see if can get LASIK surgery. That follows a B-Pro scouting report that Starling lacks the automatic pitching recognition skills of players who were primarily high school baseball players rather than multi-sport stars. Nothing to this point...just another example of prospect uncertainty. Brooks Starling was a huge risk coming out of HS and Tim and I got to see him last year in our trip to Greenevi

I think it should be similar to what Wade got for Pence. Both players had 2 more years of team control and I actually think they have similar value, as both came with manageable salaries, question marks around there game, but signs of becoming a star. Teams do appear to have become more reluctant to part with top prospects since the Pence trade, but I think Lihnow is superior to Wade which may offset that fact. It'll be interesting to see how the market develops. at this moment, it's hard to see which teams match up. But I'll start with this as a possible return: Norris to Pittsburgh for Luis Heredia, Josh Bell, and Tyler Glasgow. That's a borderline top 100 starting pitcher in short season, a top 100 OF in A ball, and an A ball SP with nice numbers and a good ceiling/floor combo. Thoughts? I think it should be similar to what Wade got for Pence. Both players had 2 more years of team control and I actually think they have similar value, as both came with manageable salaries, question marks around there game, but signs of becoming a star. Teams do appear to have become more reluctant to part with top prospects since the Pence trade, but I think Lihnow is superior to Wade which may offset that fact. It'll be interesting to see how the market develops. at this moment, it's hard to see which teams match up. But I'll start with this as a possible return: Norris to Pittsburgh for Luis Heredia, Josh Bell, and Tyler Glasgow. That's a borderline top 100 starting pitcher in short season, a top 100 OF in A ball, and an A ball SP with nice numbers and a good ceiling/floor combo. Thoughts?

In my last fanpost, I discussed the way that I, as a high school baseball coach, attempt to apply sabermetric principles to constructing my lineup. I mainly spoke in detail about how scouting vs. stats argument that is such a prominent feature in things like "Moneyball" are still very much at play even at the high school level. Today, I'm going to try and break down the differences between a high school saber metric philosophy versus its big league counterpart. Strikeouts vs.OBP OBP OBP! The whole analytical revolution began with the simple thought that baseball isn't won by getting hits, but rather by not getting out at the plate. This is a concept I've bought into whole-heartedly when I speak to my boys about how to approach their plate appearances. I stress the importance of getting on base at any cost necessary in order to help our team win. At the MLB level, recent studies have concluded that striking out isn't always the worst thing in the world, and that several teams have been successful with high strikeout numbers (not the Astros, sadly). But at the high school level, I preach the exact opposite to that. I tell the kids the absolute worst outcome to any PA is the strikeout. My reasoning behind this concept is actually pretty simplistic: 1) At the MLB level, the average BABIP typically sits at .300 over the course of the season. This is a BA against the best defenses in the game. 2) High school players, obviously, do not play the best defense in the game. Their range is reduced (except for one fairly high draft pick I had the privilege of coaching) and their arms are not as strong as their big league counterparts. 3) Therefore, the combination of less plays made plus higher likelihood of errors committed by high school defenses leads me to believe the OBPBIP (On Base Percentage of Balls In Play) is somewhere between .400 and .500 on any given day. With this logic in place, as a coach, I can't stand the strikeout. It's the one outcome in a high school baseball game that I believe the numbers are strongly in favor of the defense. Simply put, if the ball's in play, we have a chance. To Bunt, or not To Bunt--That is the question Saber metrics tell us that bunting is nothing more than a wasted out. Don't sacrifice runners because you have a higher statistical chance of scoring more runs if you let the batter swing away. This is the area where I am fundamentally against saber at the high school level. Like I referred to earlier about OBPIP, when the ball is in play, good things tend to happen in a high school baseball game. If you can put a bunt on the ground in fair territory, it's only a matter of time before the big error takes place. Small ball in high school leads to some of our biggest innings. The pressure of fielding the slowly rolling ball and throwing it on the run is usually too much on a teenager, so we make big things happen combining our speed with our bunting abilities. Stealing a base is just an opportunity to give up runs Saber metrics also tells us to not attempt the stolen base. I believe the MLB level of success rate has to be around 72% in order to make stealing bases "profitable." Again, this is an area in the high school game that I do not employ the Moneyball approach. Our approach is very simple: You get on first, you're doing everything you can to steal second. This still boils down to the idea that (again, obviously) big leaguers are much better at converting the throw down to 2nd to nail runners than high school kids. In a high school game, pitchers are nowhere near as concerned about holding the runners well, catchers don't have the "pop times" you'd prefer, and sometimes middle infielders forget who's supposed to be covering the bag. All these things lead to great chances at success in a high school game. Plus, we don't hit very many home runs anymore. The new bats cut our HR total all the way down to 6 for the team this season. We just can't afford to sit back and wait on the 3-run

The Official Site of The Oklahoma City RedHawks | okcredhawks.com Homepage9:05 p.m. CT start time - Jarred Cosart (4-1, 2.49) vs. Mike Kickham (2-4, 4.72) The Official Site of The Corpus Christi Hooks | cchooks.com Homepage7:05 p.m. CT start time - Bobby Doran (5-1, 3.92) vs. Brooks Pounders (1-1, 2.20) *Nolan Ryan Garden Gnome giveaway. I WANT A PICTURE! The Official Site of The Lancaster JetHawks | jethawks.com Homepage9:00 p.m. CT start time - Blair Walters (3-1, 4.05) vs. Eswarlin Jimenez (2-3, 4.00) The Official Site of The Quad Cities River Bandits | riverbandits.com Homepage7:00 p.m. CT start time - Jamaine Cotton (0-0, 1.64) vs. Jorge Lopez (0-3, 11.64)

Many were skeptical when the Astros tabbed Jose Veras as their closer this spring — including myself. After getting off to a rough start in April, I was one of those who questioned the move of handing the keys to the ninth inning to a 32-year old journeyman with only five career saves and an ERA of four. (more…)