The Q1 2013 index (top) shows that the 7 top automotive nations have seen their competitive positions shift since 2012 (bottom). Source: Roland Berger. Click to enlarge.
Despite maturing technology and better cost structures, worldw...
The Q1 2013 index (top) shows that the 7 top automotive nations have seen their competitive positions shift since 2012 (bottom). Source: Roland Berger. Click to enlarge.
Despite maturing technology and better cost structures, worldwide production forecasts for electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are in decline, posing a threat to national targets to raise the share of xEVs in vehicle fleets, according to the latest E-mobility Index by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbH Aachen (fka) for Q1 2013.
The index compares the development of e-mobility in seven leading car-manufacturing nations (Germany, France, Italy, US, Japan, China and South Korea) on the basis of three parameters: technology, manufacturing, and market.
Government support for e-mobility is declining in all the countries surveyed with the exception of China, according to the report. None of the subsidy programs that ended at the end of 2012 were renewed. Additionally, the support that exists is inversely proportional to the increase in these countries’ economic performance—i.e., with subsidies growing more slowly than GDP, the subsidy situation does not benefit from increases in economic output.
Overall, worldwide sales forecasts—and hence the related production forecasts for EVs and PHEVs—are more conservative than in the preceding survey period. Among the seven automotive nations tracked by the index, the share of production in some segments is shifting in favor of individual countries. Since the previous survey, forecasts for vehicle production in Germany, France and South Korea have experienced positive development but remain at comparably low levels. Forecasts for vehicle sales in China, the US and Japan have been corrected downward. Growth in France is attributable above all to significantly higher sales forecasts for the Renault Twizy.
...Negative overall development in the market for EVs and PHEVs, despite mature technologies and optimized cost structures, suggests that the right conditions are not in place. Yet politicians still hold fast to the targets already set to ramp up the market for this class of vehicles—while conceding that realization will be delayed in some cases.—Roland Berger E-mobility index for Q1 2013
Plug-in America’s #PIA100K
Plug-in vehicle advocacy organization Plug-in America (PIA) recently noted that the US plug-in car market topped the 100,000 unit sales mark sometime this month. Introduction of the latest generation of highway-capable plug-in vehicles began just over two years ago.
Plug In America commemorated the milestone—which PIA calls the #PIA100K mark—with an award contest and by launching a counter on its website that tracks EV sales. The counter, updated using pace of sales data from the most recent published sales reports, currently stands at 100,559.
According to the report, three major challenges still exist to the acceleration of adoption:
xEVs are unattractive to OEMs as a financial proposition. OEMs realize lower margins on the sale of electric vehicles than on vehicles with conventional powertrains. In terms of the total cost of ownership (TCO), partially or fully electrified powertrains are still at a significant cost disadvantage over the entire lifecycle compared to conventional powertrains.
OEMs experience a shortfall in profit margins if they sell a plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) rather than a vehicle with a conventional powertrain. The customer benefits from lower energy costs due to lower fuel consumption, but the OEM is not fully recompensed for the extra cost it incurs. As long as emissions standards and CO2 targets can still be met with optimized internal combustion engines, there is thus no special incentive—marketing reasons aside—for OEMs to place more than the politically required minimum number of xEVs on the market (to comply with