Montreal Canadiens

Previewing tonight's match where the Bruins could take a choke hold on the Stanley Cup finals, let's all take a moment to remember why they're so despicable.

MONTREAL – Yannick Weber may have seen limited action for the Canadiens in 2012-13, but at 24 years of age, the Swiss star isn’t prepared to write it off as a lost season. Having suited up for just six games during the lockout-shortened campaig...

To find a quick answer, I've looked at the vital statistics of the recent winners during their regular seasons to see how well these squads were doing against their peers during their successful seasons. Total +/- ES Goal +/- ES Goal% Fenwick Close Non ES Goal +/- ES SH% ES SAV% 12-LAK 15 1 50.2 53.7 14 6.07 929 11-BOS 51 55 58.7 50.8 -4 8.32 941 10-CHI 62 31 54.8 58.1 31 8.33 905 09-PIT 25 30 55.0 50.1 -5 9.49 929 08-DET 73 45 59.0 59.7 28 7.54 926 08-12 AVG 45.2 32.4 55.5 54.5 12.2 7.95 926 The winners had a fair range of observable talent, but they average out a team that was ahead of their opponents by half a goal a game in the regular season, three quarters of that on ES. Their shot differential skill averages to just above 54%, which is where the best Fenwick close teams tend to be most seasons. Noticeable trend on special teams, either good or average and regular season goaltending that is typically much better than average (except for the Blackhawks). The striking similarity is that these are all teams that managed to be 55%+ on ES goal differential, a difference that, with the average number of ES goal events for and against for a NHL team being ~320 in 82 games (about 4 per game) works out to about +30 on the year, similar to the +32.4 average observed. The exception is LA, but they were shooting blanks that season and had a shot control skill of close to 54% and above average save%, putting that magic 55% well in their grasp. There does not seem to be much of a pattern on how the 55% is achieved. Detroit flat out dominated their way to it as the best shot control team in the post lockout era. Chicago got their by being their only peers in shot control, somewhat undermined by goaltending. Pittsburgh and Boston accomplished this by PDO dominance, Pittsburgh largely on the backs of the huge offensive advantage Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin could have on a team's on ice shooting, Boston by their otherworldly save%. Its should also be noted that the ordinary Fenwick teams all were on the rise and their regular season results may not truly reflect their real Fenwick talent during the playoffs. Pittsburgh became possession dominant after a coaching change and were 54% the next year. Boston was developing and had yet to exploit Tyler Seguin, being 53% fenwick the next year. LA had both a coaching and personal change that put them well above 55% in shot control. So we have a basic idea of what a current cup winner is. Its seems a championship squad is now one that can manage to expect to go +11/-9 out of 20 goals scored 5 on 5 against average opposition which turns into ~+30. Modern puck possession skill for elite teams tends to be in the ballpark of 53-54% (which works out to ~+18-25 goals on shot control ability), so to get over the hump a team a normal elite squad likely either has some level of save% skill (more likely) or shooting% skill (less likely). But there are also occasionally super-elite shot control teams like Chicago and Detroit (only teams in this 5 year period to be +55% Fenwick close are Chicago once, Detroit twice and San Jose in the same year Detroit won) that can get to that level without extra-ordinary goaltending skill. This formula is borne out by this years playoffs as well. Chicago is a 56% Fenwick close team, Boston is about 54% but has a notable talent for save%. So for my initial guess of what we can call a team with sufficient talent to win a championship in this league. This isn't to say that that level of talent will actually get a team a championship, plenty of teams have been about that good and haven't won (looking at you Vancouver and San Jose). But if you are wonder if a championship is a reasonable possibility for a team, it seems asking if they have the rational expectation to outscore their opponents by 30 goals 5 on 5 over 82 games seems like a pretty good start. If you can get

Coming up to an important draft for the Habs, I have been looking back through what's been written in the past for inspiration. In this case, I found not just inspiration but something I thought should see the light of day again in its entirety. This is something I wrote before the organization's illustrious 2009 draft. The old advice still applies, I think. The NHL draft is 10 days away... Visit Lions in Winter for the full article, as well as other stories you may have missed...

February 18th, 2013: Max Pacioretty passes to Tomas Plekanec at the Hurricane's blueline and the two of them gain the offensive zone. Plekanec doesn't look too dangerous from the left side boards, but he winds up and lets go of a hard slap shot that hits Cam Ward in the collar bone area, stunning him, then bounces over him and into the net. This goal was an individual effort off the rush. March 3rd, 2013: Andrei Markov dangles around a Bruins checker and sends the puck to P.K. Subban. Subban controls the puck and passes to Michael Ryder on left side boards, who immediately finds Plekanec streaking into the slot uncovered. Plekanec fans on his attempted snap shot but gets enough on it that it goes through Tuukka Rask's legs. This goal was a team effort on a zone play. Picking apart Boston with passing is fun to watch. March 3rd, 2013: Whoever created this highlights package should be shot for that first angle. Anyway... Ryder causes some havoc on the forecheck, which allows the puck to rim around the boards to Alex Galchenyuk. As soon as Galchenyuk has it, he sends a hard pass to Tomas Plekanec in the slot, who puts a wrist shot passed Evgeni Nabokov. This goal was a team effort on a zone play. March 9th, 2013: Ryder causes a turnover that Andrei Markov recognizes and pounces on, whacking the puck into the slot where Plekanec snaps a shot through Cedrick Desjardins. This goal was a team effort on a zone play. March 16th, 2013: A harmless dump in turns sour for the Devils as Marek Zidlicky makes a horrendous decision from the corner, sending the puck slowly up the middle of the ice. Jarred Tinordi in his first NHL game pinches in and one-times the easy lay up, and Tomas Plekanec tips it passed Martin Brodeur. The goal was a team effort on a zone play. March 30th, 2013: As a penalty to P.K. Subban expires, Andrei Markov finds the puck on the boards and flips it up to Tomas Plekanec, who is instantly on a 2-on-1 break with Subban. They pass it back and forth before crossing the blueline, but Plekanec takes the puck in and elects to take a slap shot, which beats Martin Biron. This goal was an individual effort off the rush. April 27th, 2013: Josh Gorges rims the puck around the boards in the defensive end to Brandon Prust, who finds Plekanec in flight on the left side. Plekanec gains the Maple Leafs' zone, creates some distance between the puck and Mike Kostka, and rips a wrist shot over James Reimer's shoulder. This goal was an individual effort off the rush. Tomorrow we'll compare this season's goals to last season's along with those from 2010-11. Follow @AndrewBerkshire Follow @HabsEOTP

We’re in Orillia, home of Gordon Lightfoot and Stephen Leacock. And Samuel de Champlain for a day or two about four hundred years ago. My birthplace. My hometown. A place I couldn’t wait to leave, but that was a long time ago. I love it all over again. Funny how that works. Our trip tally was: 5500 kilometres from Powell River to Orillia, which took just over seven and a half days, and cost $355 in gas. We saw one moose, didn’t get any speeding tickets, and noticed five identical tractor-trailers near the Soo with Taylor Swift’s name on the side, driving by on their way to Winnipeg (I know this because I Googled her itinerary). I also saw a guy in Kenora wearing a Leafs jacket and a Habs jersey. Today it’s down to Niagara Falls, which is way off the route, but Luci wants to go, and because I’m such a fantastic husband, I said of course. I yanked her out of Powell River so I could try out my new job in Montreal, so going to Niagara Falls is the least I could do. I know. I’m a saint. ******************************************** If this doesn’t excite you, nothing will. I bought a new duffel bag in Orillia yesterday. It’s more than 50 years old. How’s your pulse now?

Congratulations to P.K. Subban on winning his 1st James Norris Memorial Trophy and for being the 1st Montreal Canadiens defenseman to win the award in 24 years. When I tweeted 2.5 years ago that Pernell Karl Subban was the best home-grown Canadiens defenseman I’d seen since Chris Chelios, much to the dismay and criticism of his staunch critics, the Norris win was made all the sweeter knowing

Speculation on possible amnesty buyouts for all 30 NHL teams this summer. Montreal Canadiens - Tomas Kaberle - D - One year remaining at $4.25M Obviously, right? I mean there's the slightest possible chance that Bergevin finds a buyer with just one year left on the deal, but if it wasn't done at this year's deadline it seems to be incredibly unlikely. Boston Bruins - Chris Kelly - C - Three years remaining at $3M Boston likes Kelly, and they just signed that contract last summer, but they have just $1.587M in cap space going into next year and star goaltender Tuukka Rask is up for a new contract. Even buying out Kelly won't be enough though, Rask should earn in the $5-6.5M range. Boston is in trouble cap wise, and say bye to Nathan Horton as a UFA. Rich Peverley could also be a buyout candidate. Toronto Maple Leafs - Mike Komisarek - D - One year remaining at $4.5M Beyond obvious that this is going to happen. Komisarek couldn't even stay in the Marlies' lineup when he was sent to the AHL. A buyout may rejuvenate his career, but he was never what the Leafs paid for. Thanks Andrei Markov, for trolling the Leafs org into buying a marginal player at high cost. Ottawa Senators - Chris Neil - RW - Three years remaining at $1.9M It's not going to happen because the Senators have a ton of cap space, and also because they're in love with the toothless wonder, but Neil is no longer much of an effective player. He can agitate and fight players smaller than him, but he doesn't do much else. Buffalo Sabres - VIlle Leino - C - Four years remaining at $4.5M Buffalo isn't in cap trouble going into next year, but it's nearly unfathomable that they would choose to not buy out Leino, who's been awful since he was signed to a hugely expensive deal. Do any buyout candidates interest the Habs? This is a pretty sad sack group. I don't think I'd want any of them on my team, and I don't think Marc Bergevin would either. Follow @AndrewBerkshire Follow @HabsEOTP

by Simon Servant, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine – translated by Chantal MONTREAL, QC — Here we are, the third and final part of this first round mock draft. In these last ten picks, you’ll see the Montreal Canadiens selection, as well as the Calgary Flames and Dallas Stars second picks, and the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Flames third picks. Since the Stanley Cup hasn’t been awarded yet, Chicago will get the last selection because of their seed. One last reminder that all player measurements are provided by the teams they play for. Here’s a summary of positions 11 to 20 (part II can be found here): 11) Nikita Zadorov – Flyers (D) 12) Hunter Shinkaruk – Coyotes (AG) 13) Frédérik Gauthier – Jets (C) 14) Alexander Wennberg – Blue Jackets (C) 15) Anthony Mantha – Islanders (AD) 16) Rasmus Ristolainen – Sabres (D) 17) Ryan Pulock – Sénateurs (D) 18) Andre Burakowsky – Red Wings (AG) 19) Valentin Zykov – Blue Jackets (AD) 20) Curtis Lazar – Sharks (C) Picks 21 to 30  TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS Pick 21: ADAM ERNE – Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Right winger, left shot, 6’1″ 198 lbs. Image CP Season Stats: 68 GP, 28 G, 44 A, 72 PTS, 67 PIM Ranking: 37th ISS – 26th in North American Skaters by the Central Scouting Bureau The Leafs like big players who can light up the opponent’s net, and I believe Erne would fit in well with them. He’s a power forward with a nice mix of finesse and physical play. He’s a good skater that manages to crash the dirty areas and score. It should be noted that he did have a few issues this season regarding individual play. NHL Comparable: Jakub Voracek Leafs last three 1st round picks: Morgan Rielly (5th – 2012), Tyler Biggs (22nd – 2011) and Stuart Percy (25th – 2011) Notable 1st round picks: Darryl Sittler (8th – 1970), Vincent Damphousse (6th – 1986) and Tuukka Rask (21st – 2005) CALGARY FLAMES Pick 22: JOSH MORRISSEY – Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Defenseman, left shot, 6′ 185 lbs. Season Stats: 70 GP, 15 G, 32 A, 47 PTS, 91 PIM Ranking: 21st ISS – 27th in North American Skaters by the Central Scouting Bureau After having a good Ivan Hlinka tournament, Morrissey cruised through the first part of the season, as he did the U18 tournament where he finished tied in scoring for defensemen. He has good skating abilities and impressive hands, two assets that allow him to get the puck out of his zone. Defensively, he plays the man and hits hard. He’s a Calgary native, so that might also come into play. NHL Comparable: Duncan Keith Pick acquired from the St.Louis Blues in the Jay Bouwmeester trade.  Earlier in this draft: Elias Lindholm (6th). WASHINGTON CAPITALS Pick 23: SAMUEL MORIN – Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Defenseman, left shot, 6’6″ 203 lbs. Season Stats: 46 GP, 4 G, 12 A, 16 PTS, 117 PIM Ranking: 32nd ISS – 23rd in North American Skaters by the Central Scouting Bureau I’m expecting Morin to get called in the second round, but I tend to believe that a few teams will want to take a shot with him a little earlier in the draft, and I think the Capitals are one of them. We witnessed Washington’s unimpressive defense this year, a big guy like Morin could help Oates’ troops back there. He’s very sound in his zone, can block shots, play a physical game and can play the man very well. Offensively, he can manage whatever role is given to him. He could be a nice project in the NHL. NHL Comparable: Braydon Coburn Capitals last three 1st round picks: Filip Forsberg (11th – 2012), Tom Wilson (16th – 2012) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (26th – 2010) Notable 1st round picks: Mike Gartner (4th – 1979), Scott Stevens (5th – 1982) and Alexander Ovechkin (1st – 2004) VANCOUVER CANUCKS Pick 24: MORGAN KLIMCHUK – Regina Pats (WHL). Centerman, left shot, 5’11″ 180 lbs. Season Stats: 72 GP, 36 G, 40 A, 76 PTS, 20 PIM Ranking: 25th in North American Skaters by the Central Scouting Bureau I was really drawn to Klimchuk at the U18

MONTREAL – Colby Armstrong impacted the Canadiens in his own unique way this past season. Slowed down by several injuries over the course of the last few years, the veteran forward had an opportunity to start anew in 2012-13. Having been given ...