New York Jets

Condolences to family, friends of Dave Jennings, former Jets punter/radio analyst who passed away this morning at 61:

The Turn On The Jets Roundtable is back to debate issues surrounding the New York Jets. Make sure to give all of the writers a follow on Twitter and if there is a question you want to see us debate, leave it in the comment section!  How do you see the AFC East playing out in 2013? Joe Caporoso - While New England is providing us plenty of easy jokes this off-season and will have that inevitable stretch early in the year when everybody doubts them…we’ve seen this movie before. They are going to win 10-12 games and the AFC East…again. After that? Miami spent plenty of money and has plenty of hype surrounding them AKA the 2012 Buffalo Bills. We remember how that went, right? The reality is that the division is wide open after New England. I don’t think there is a second playoff team in the AFC East this season. As of now, I see the Jets as a 6-10 to 8-8 team that mildly exceeds expectations, Buffalo as probably doing the same and the Dolphins failing to meet their league wide expectations and turning in yet another 7-9 type season. Mike Donnelly - I wish I could sit here and say the Jets are going to shock the world and win the division, or that the Patriots are going to free fall into mediocrity, but neither of those is going to happen. Sure, Aaron Hernandez may be in prison to start the season and Rob Gronkowski is starting to look like the guy on the game Operation with all of his various ailments, but the Patriots still have Tom Brady and that makes them the clear cut favorite in the division. They will come in first and leave the Bill, Dolphins, and our Jets battling it out for possibly a wildcard spot. This year, the hot team everyone is going to be pushing is the Miami Dolphins after they spent a ton of money in free agency. Unfortunately for them, I don’t believe that money to be well spent, and I expect them to disappoint a great deal in 2013 much like last year’s preseason darlings, the Buffalo Bills did in 2012. Ah yes, the Bills.. another season with more high hopes destined for failure. I find it curious so many people are expecting them to compete thanks to hiring the coach of a mediocre college team (Doug Marrone) and Rex Ryan’s former defensive coordinator (Mike Pettine). Expect the BIlls to also disappoint, yet again. That leaves Gang Green, who I legitimately expect to be better than everyone is giving them credit for and come in 2nd place in the division with their new and improved run game and a young, fast defense. Pats, Jets, Dolphins, Bills and only one playoff team in 2013. Connor Rogers - The NFL is a quarterback driven league and the AFC East has one proven commodity at the position in Tom Brady. While the Patriots offense has taken an ugly renovation in the loss of Wes Welker and the constant injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Brady is a top three gun slinger that finds ways to win no matter who’s catching the ball. The Dolphins went on a wild spending spree, throwing ridiculous amounts of money to wide receivers Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline. Two problems with these contracts outside of overpaying: 1) Neither are true number one targets. 2) The loss of Jake Long (due to not being able to afford him) will significantly effect the pass protection for young quarterback Ryan  Tannenhill. Protecting a young quarterback is vital, especially a promising one such as Tannenhill. Letting your franchise left tackle walk in free agency and unproven players handling the workload in the running game is not exactly setting up Tannenhill for success. While the defense should be rock solid, Miami spent like a team a few pieces away from a Superbowl, not the team that’s still rebuilding, which they are. While the Bills experiment with Ryan Fitzpatrick failed terribly, former first round pick C.J. Spiller displayed premier playmaking ability. 2013 first round pick E.J. Manuel has through the roof potential, but will take at least two years to develop, and that’s i

After a short break to enjoy our quarterback battle and over-reaction to every single pass thrown and word spoken, I have decided to take a very brief look at the 2014 NFL draft, the players expected to be in the first round and what this could mean for the Jets. Please take all this with a pinch of salt, this time last year Matt Barkley was the consensus number 1 overall selection, if you asked the June 2012 David Wyatt if he thought there was a chance Barkley would drop out of the first round, let alone last until the 4th round – I would have said not a chance in hell. In my opinion, it’s never too early to look at some of the potential future Jets. A lot of people often say to me around March/April time that they wished they had made an effort to see some of these prospects through the year. Well hopefully a series of these type posts will help people highlight which games to watch and which prospects to focus on. So right now, I see us going into the 2014 draft needing a WR, OLB and safety. Anything can happen and anything can change, but right now this is where I see us. So for the first instalment I’m going to focus on the wide receivers in the 2014 draft, and highlight some of the players you should be watching. Right now I see three wide receivers who currently hold a first round grade. Marqise Lee who plays forUSC, Jordan Matthews from Vanderbilt and Sammy Watkins from Clemson. Lee had 1721 yards and 14 touchdowns last season and it will be interesting to see how he does with a new Quarterback, he runs excellent routes and possesses the most reliable hands in college, at just 6’0 though the usual height concerns will present themselves. Sammy Watkins does it all, his 2,288 all-purpose yards in 2011 as a true freshman was very impressive. However some legal issues with drugs prevented him from repeating in 2012 as he was suspended for two games. With Boyd returning for his senior year, he has one of the nation’s top quarterbacks throwing him the rock so he should have a good year. Jordan Matthews is one of the most interesting cases in 2013 for me. Last year he really broke out, recording 94 receptions for 1323 yards and 8 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Matthews, the Commodores offence will lose QB Jordan Rodgers and RB Zac Stacy so there will be a lot of pressure on Matthews to impress. Matthews has good straight line speed and catches the ball well, he adjusts while the ball is in the air and uses his 6’3 frame to box out corners. I think his statistics will take a tumble this year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a first round talent. So then we move a little further down, to guys who won’t be ranked as a first round talent going into the season, but could find their way up the board as the season goes. Brandon Coleman from Rutgers is a 6-5 guy who has been compared to Calvin Johnson. However he doesn’t have the speed of Johnson and he’s not quite as reliable with his hands. However with his height and talent, he’ll get a look in. Now we have to have a dark horse. It’s only right. Josh Stewart. Well this one isn’t really a dark horse, but speaking to draft experts, nobody considers him a first round talent. I find that hard to believe after he caught 101 passes for 1210 yards and 7 touchdowns for Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys can get a little consistency at Quarterback, Stewart’s ability to get open easily could lead to a massive year.

After reading this article about Kenrick (cap tip to dvdvill), I gotta say that I'm starting to get excited about his prospects for this season. I think this is going to be the year that we start to see him begin the process of realizing his potential. Rex seems to have a knack for getting the most out of his DLs, and Dunbar seems like he's a heck of a DL coach. I think this is the year where we'll see if there's a there there. And I think we will. Admittedly, I'm very much partial to Kenrick. I feel like I discovered him in a way, because literally nobody was talking about before I did, and I talked about him A LOT, and then we actually drafted him!! So yeah, he's my draft baby. Thank/Blame me for him being on our team. And I'll tell you what it was that attracted me to him... 94 tackles. How many 6-4, 350lbs guys do you know that can notch those kind of tackle stats? In any league. If you're logging 90+ tackles, you're moving around out there. Those tackle stats tell me that he was not only making plays around his frame, but he was busting it down the line and tracking guys down field. 350lbs guys just don't log linebacker stats. It just is not something that "normal" 350 pounders do. And the tape confirmed that. Not only was he huge, his athleticism was off the charts. But he was raw as hell. We knew he was going to need some seasoning when he was drafted, and the lockout did him no favors. He didn't get the chance to go through rookie camp, OTAs, mini camp and all that. Then he had his legal situation hanging over him during last off-season and he had to do some time before camp got started. [Brief interruption to pass on a word of advice: do not grab a baseball bat and attack a 350 lbs man that can karate chop wood into tiny splinters and then let said man punch you in the face. He will probably smash it.] However, now all of that is behind him. He's been through a couple of seasons now, and he knows the system, and he knows how he has to prepare for a season. And he finally can go through a normal off-season and train with a singular focus on football. One of the ongoing issues for Ellis has been his tendency to raise his pad level. In my very amateur opinion, he does this more often when he has two-gap responsibilities. He tries to read the play and he has a natural inclination to come up a bit. And it doesn't help him that he's kind of tall at around 6-4/6-5. So when he raises, he loses all of his power. When he's allowed to attack gaps, he usually blows them up and fires into the backfield. Hopefully, considering all the chatter we've been hearing about getting back to blitzing, we'll see Kenrick playing with more single gap responsibilities and growing into becoming a more disruptive player going forward. I'm also hopeful that the coaching and experience will take effect, and we'll see him playing with more aggressive hands and better play recognition. After reading this article about Kenrick (cap tip to dvdvill), I gotta say that I'm starting to get excited about his prospects for this season. I think this is going to be the year that we start to see him begin the process of realizing his potential. Rex seems to have a knack for getting the most out of his DLs, and Dunbar seems like he's a heck of a DL coach. I think this is the year where we'll see if there's a there there. And I think we will. Admittedly, I'm very much partial to Kenrick. I feel like I discovered him in a way, because literally nobody was talking about before I did, and I talked about him A LOT, and then we actually drafted him!! So yeah, he's my draft baby. Thank/Blame me for him being on our team. And I'll tell you what it was that attracted me to him... 94 tackles. How many 6-4, 350lbs guys do you know that can notch those kind of tackle stats? In any league. If you're logging 90+ tackles, you're moving around out there. Those tackle stats tell me that he was not only making plays around his

Every year, every team has two goals. The first is to win the division, as this ensures a playoff spot, and the second is to win the Super Bowl. Since 2001, the New England Patriots have won the AFC East ten times out of a possible twelve. The other two were the New York Jets in 2002 and the Miami Dolphins in 2008. With Tom Brady at the helm, the Patriots are incredibly likely to win the division every year. In fact, since 2001, they have not had a losing season. So that got me to thinking about the likelihood of winning the AFC East. Is it possible for one of the three other teams to beat out the Patriots? Of course. But what is the likelihood, the actual percentage? The easiest way to do this is by calculating the likelihood the Patriots will win the division, as they are the most likely (it's also difficult to look at the Jets individually because there is so little data to go by, as they haven't won the division since 2002. The Patriots offer a much clearer track record and larger data set). Whatever is left is the probability of the three other teams. There are nearly infinite number of things-Brady's age, the receiving weapons he will have, injuries- that would need to be considered to have a "true" percentage, many of which cannot be enumerated, but one rough guide is to use what's called Bayes' Theorem. As a side note, I'm note sure that those other factors that I previously listed will affect the ultimate percentage that significantly. If the Patriots will win 90% of the time, the 10% of the time they lose will invariably account for those possibilities. Bayes' Theorem was invented by Thomas Bayes and is heavily used by statisticians such as Nate Silver to predict conditional probability. It is one of the most fundamental formulas used in statistics to predict the likelihood of an event occurring. Football is more difficult to predict than possibly any other sport, but it is not immune to certain fundamental truths, such as that a consistently good team is more likely to win the division than a consistently bad team. Today, we will try to measure that likelihood. The theorem involves three known quantities and one unknown quantity (that is, the end result we're looking for). It tells you the probability that a theory is true if some event has happened. For example, an example Silver has used is to calculate the probability of your significant other cheating on you if you've discovered a mysterious set of underwear in your apartment. For the purposes of this hypothetical, let's use the conditional event as "Bill Belichick will be the head coach all sixteen games this season." The reason I've chosen this event is because the one constant throughout the past twelve years has been Belichick. Even when Brady was injured, Belichick still coached a successful team. The formula itself is (xy)/((xy)+(z(1-x))). So that means we need an X, Y, and Z. The X variable is the initial estimate of how likely it is the Patriots will win the division before the season begins. This is a guesstimated number, what you think the likelihood is before anything actually happens. I am going to go with 83%, as that is the 10/12, or the number of times the Patriots have won the AFC East, ten, in the past twelve years. I think that's a fair number, as past success is generally a good indicator of future short-term success. We obviously can't use that number to predict the Patriots in the long-run, but if you've been great for the past twelve years, you're obviously likely to be good in the near future. The Y variable is the probability of the Patriots winning the division as a condition of the hypothesis being true. Our hypothesis being, of course, that Belichick coaches all sixteen games. It's incredibly doubtful that Belichick doesn't coach all sixteen games, but something, theoretically, could happen (sex scandal, health issues, etc.). So let's put that percentage at 98%. It's almost certain that he's going to coach all the games, but it

Coming into the 2013 offseason, new general manager John Idzik had many holes to fill on the New York Jets roster with one of the worst salary cap situations in the NFL. With a budget that required Idzik to pursue “bargain bin” players, former San Diego Chargers pass rush specialist Antwan Barnes was signed by the Jets to a three year deal. Barnes is coming off of a year in which he was limited due to a hamstring injury and put on the injured reserve in December. Although Barnes doesn’t possess Pro Bowl caliber career numbers, there are multiple reasons he’s poised for success and a big role with the current Jet defense. History: Barnes was a standout pass rusher at Florida International University, registering a school record of 22 sacks throughout his career. After being selected in the fourth round of the 2007 NFL draft by the Baltimore Ravens, Barnes made an impact on special teams and occasional pass rush situations in limited attempts (registering 2 sacks and a forced fumble as a rookie). In his sophomore season Barnes became buried in a depth chart full of linebackers and struggled to find a role on the defense, but became a premier special teams player. In his third pro season, which would be his last with the Ravens, Barnes was a pass rushing specialist and recorded three sacks while also remaining on special teams. After the 2009 season he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles for a 7th round pick, but never found a role with the team and was released in October. The Chargers signed Barnes, a move that paid off for both parties involved. In his first two seasons with the Chargers, Barnes recorded a total of 15.5 sacks in limited time with the base defense. After an injury depleted 2012, the Jets signed Barnes to play significant time at one of their vacant outside linebacker spots for the upcoming NFL season. Role with the Jets: Barnes should see a significant amount of snaps on the Jets defense as Rex is ready to go back to their aggressive style often seen from 2009-2011. An athletic 250 pound linebacker who runs a 4.43 forty yard dash, Barnes could be used as a blitzer on first and second downs and an outside rusher on third downs. Fans should keep their expectations limited when it comes to Barnes run defense, as he has yet to really see the field as a first and second down run stopper in a full time role. What he can contribute is a consistent pass rush on passing downs, as he’s succeeded in this role throughout his entire career. Outside the sack numbers, Barnes game shows up on tape. After viewing some tape from his best season (2011), he displays excellent closing speed once he wins his matchup, forcing an errant throw or wrapping up the quarterback for a sack. Unlike Aaron Maybin, Antwan Barnes possesses multiple moves to gain leverage inside, while using his speed to rush on the outside. What to expect: Although he missed a majority of last season due to injury, that hasn’t been Barnes issue throughout his career. Both Baltimore and San Diego viewed him as a “pass rushing specialist”, a fancy term for a guy that’s only job is to get after the quarterback on passing downs. In this limited role Barnes has found a way to get to the quarterback. More importantly, Rex Ryan’s defense puts his players in areas they have strengths. Barnes won’t be expected to cover elite tight ends or stone wall linemen to stop the run. With Calvin Pace back (an underwhelming-non existent pass rusher but solid run stuffer) and a defensive line that commands double teams to run against (Mo Wilkerson, Kenrick Ellis), Barnes will most likely be used much like he was with the Chargers in 2011. Countless times the Jets have given up big gains on opposing team’s third downs not due to coverage, but to a non-existent pass rush. Mike Pettine’s defense was relying on players like Pace and Bryan Thomas to get to the quarterback on third down, after playing steady a

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports It’s not everyday that you come across a 6-foot-6, 250-plus pound tight end who is extremely athletic, but the New York Jets might have just stumbled upon one. Hayden Smith, a former rugby star in England, was signed by the Jets last season with zero experience with the sport, but has transformed himself into a good football player who might get a starting job this upcoming season. Smith, as can be imagined, had some difficulty knowing where to line up, remembering his assignments on each play, and knowing when to get off the line. However, his rookie season allowed him time to develop, and he worked really hard in the off-season so he would be able to focus on just playing the game. “Coming in the second time around, not having to worry about the game of football itself, it takes a lot of thinking out of it,” Smith told ESPN New York. Smith adopted the nickname “Aussie” early in camp last year because of his Australian heritage. He spent most of last year on the practice squad, with some appearances with the team towards the end of the season. However, during OTA’s, Smith performed extremely well, opening eyes with his football IQ improvement as well as acrobatic receptions, which now puts him in the conversation for starting tight end. “I feel like I’m at the stage where I can contribute,” he said. “My primary goal is to help to Jets win football games.” In addition to improving on the field, Smith has also developed relationships with the team, coordinating a “coffee klatsch” in the Jets locker room. Smith brews coffee after practice, keeping his machine in his locker, and serves his teammates, who then sit in a circle and just talk. This is Smith’s way of creating team chemistry, and if that’s what it takes to get this disheveled team together, go with it. Smith has the size and athleticism that is required for a tight end in this day in age of the NFL. If he continues to improve the way he has been, there is no question why he should not be considered to be starting tight end come week one.

Occasionally, we like to take a look at what the rivals of the New York Jets are up to, as their transactions often-and for obvious reasons-can have significant effect upon our matchups with them. Today, let's take a quick look at the New England Patriots. 1. You may have heard that there has been some controversy on whether or not Bob Kraft, owner of the Patriots, gave Vladimir Putin, the former Prime Minister and current President of Russia, one of his Super Bowl rings (I guess with two others, he can afford it?) Kraft claimed that it was stolen by Putin, Putin claims it was a gift, who knows, who cares. This doesn't actually affect the Jets, but I think we can all agree it's fun to laugh at the Patriots. 2. Rob Gronkowski, he of Yo Soy Fiesta fame, has just had back surgery. This was his primary concern coming out of college, the health status of his back. Gronkowski also has had four other surgeries this off season in connection with his broken arm, which had developed an infection. So, count five total surgeries for the big man. I suppose we can count on him to drink the pain away as he dances shirtless at a party. 3. On a sobering note, Aaron Hernandez is now being investigated in connection with the murder of a man not far from his house. Hernandez is not a suspect at this time, but his home has been searched by police officers, as a rental car involved in the murder had been registered under his name. I don't want to belabor this point since a man is now dead, but this could spell serious trouble for Hernandez if he is found to be an accomplice or otherwise obstructing justice (at least one report indicated he was being uncooperative with authorities, but it isn't known what specifically that means... was he just refusing to answer questions without a lawyer or was it something more devious?). And they say the Jets are the circus, right?

Here at Turn On The Jets, we decided to take a page out of Robert Mays book over at Grantland (a polite way of saying rip his article idea off) by counting down the 115 days until the New York Jets kick off, with a daily reason to get excited about their return. Mays has the whole NFL to work with, we only have the Goddamn Jets…now there is a challenge, step your game up Mays! We continue today with a look at Quinton Coples unleashed (Note, you can track this entire series right here) We don’t hide from our past writing here at TOJ. I was initially skeptical and critical of the New York Jets decision to select Quinton Coples in the first round. Fortunately, I have been proven wrong as Coples showed immense potential in his rookie season, finishing with a team leading 5.5 sacks despite only playing in 47% of the defensive snaps. He showed versatility and explosiveness as a pass rusher and is a going to be the featured pass rusher on the Jets defense this season. We’ve talked plenty about the New York media misrepresenting Coples “move” to outside linebacker this season. To categorize Coples in a single position in this defense is a senseless task. He is going to play defensive end in 4-3 looks and 3-4 looks, defensive tackle and outside linebacker in certain situations. Coples is going to be put into position to rush the passer. You won’t be seeing him constantly dropping in coverage and being asked to set the edge in the running game. With a featured role and more overall reps, Coples should be a double digit sack guy…yes he is good enough to break the Jets now 8 year streak of having a player without 10 or more sacks. Quietly, the Jets are building something special upfront with Coples, Muhammad Wilkerson and the recently added Sheldon Richardson. It is going to be fun to watch these guys wreak havoc in the coming years. - NEW YORK DAILY NEWS STORY PITCH OF THE DAY - 1400 words from Gary Myers on the issues with Rex Ryan wearing a sweater vest on the sideline every game. “The monotony of his outfit demonstrates a man resigned to his fate as a lame-duck coach in an organization that no longer wants his brash proclamations and unfulfilled promises.” Myers also is critical of Rex wearing receiver gloves during colder games because “he isn’t a player and needs to stop acting like one.” RANDOM JET OF THE DAY – KEVAN BARLOW! - The Jets traded for Barlow right before the 2006 season to be their lead back, yet he only finished with 131 carries for 370 yards (that is 2.8 yards per carry!) However, he did have 6 touchdowns. PLODDER NATION!

The New York Jets are a fantasy football catastrophe. Everywhere you look there is a glimmer of promise that is sure to implode. Do you dare?