Lately, everyone seems to be talking about a million dollars. For example: “A million dollars isn’t what it used to be,” the New York Times reports.
For now, let’s sidestep the debate about whether a million dollars is a lot of money or ...
Lately, everyone seems to be talking about a million dollars. For example: “A million dollars isn’t what it used to be,” the New York Times reports.
For now, let’s sidestep the debate about whether a million dollars is a lot of money or not and focus on a question we’ll all face at some point, if we’re lucky: how to live off a sum of money.
To make the issues simpler to understand, forget retirement.
Let’s say you inherit a million dollars from your rich uncle or sell your internet startup, and you want to live off the interest for the next 30 years, without putting the principal at risk.
In other words, you don’t want to end up like the CNET founder who blew $200 million in five years and is now in bankruptcy.
You already know how to avoid that fate: buy fewer houses and racehorses. But how far can the interest on a cool mill actually take you?
Let’s look at what you might do with the money if preserving the principal is your main goal.
(Note: This exercise was inspired by a blog post by my friend Glenn Fleishman, a man who thinks big; his post is about what to do with $5 million.)
Buy a 30-year US treasury bond.
Current rate: 3.33%. Great. You collect $33,300 a year.
Yikes.
That’s not even enough for one measly thoroughbred. Actually, it’s even worse than that.
The $33,330 isn’t adjusted for inflation. Assuming 3% inflation, in 30 years that payout will be worth $13,590—and your $1 million principal will be worth about $412,000.
So you want inflation protection. Okay, so buy a 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS).
Now your interest rate is 1.06%. You get $10,600 per year, and both the interest payments and principal are adjusted for inflation.
That’s fine, but who can live on $10,600?
Buy a 5-year CD
I hope interest rates are higher when it’s time to renew, because rates really stink right now. You can get a CD paying 2%.
That’s $20,000/year, not adjusted for inflation. Yuck.
Furthermore, this strategy leaves you completely at the mercy of interest rate fluctuations. As you know from living through the last ten years, interest rates are as volatile as a drunk uncle at a wedding.
Short-term interest rates in 2007 were 100 times higher than they are now, and 5-year rates were over four times as high.
If you’re living off income from your portfolio, what are you supposed to do, live like a rap star when interest rates are high and subsist on bread and water when they’re low?
Okay, maybe you’d rather take some risk to squeeze more income from your portfolio by doing something like this…
Buy dividend stocks.
These have been very popular lately, so much so that you’re not going to find a lot of income in them.
Vanguard’s Dividend Appreciation ETF(VIG) currently yields 2.11%. Not much better than a CD, and nothing about it is guaranteed: companies can suspend dividends, and the stocks can tumble like any other stocks.
Buy high-yield bonds.
SPDR’s junk bond ETF (JNK) yields 4.97%. That’s the best number we’ve heard all day. Naturally, higher return is accompanied by higher risk: junk bonds plummeted during the financial crisis.
Something is wrong here, and it’s not just the fact that interest rates are appallingly low. It’s that trying to squeeze “income” from your portfolio is a mental mistake that leads to bad decisions.
Total return
Investors love income. We’re excited by high interest rates and big stock dividends, and we consider them different from the money we make when a stock or bond goes up in value.
A $100 dividend or interest payment feels like money we can spend; a $100 increase in the value of our stock holdings doesn’t induce us to sell; it might encourage us to buy more.
This mental distinction is usually a mistake, because what matters is how much money you have and how it’s invested, not whether the source of the money was dividends, capital appreciation, or a $25 check from Grandma.
Investors who focus on wringing more income out of their portfolio often end up taking additional risk without realiz