Philadelphia Flyers

Expect a Bounce-Back from Hartnell in 2013-14 There's no two ways about it: Scott Hartnell had a miserable 2013 season. He was not in top game shape at the start of the season, sustained a broken foot in the third game of the regular se...
Expect a Bounce-Back from Hartnell in 2013-14 There's no two ways about it: Scott Hartnell had a miserable 2013 season. He was not in top game shape at the start of the season, sustained a broken foot in the third game of the regular season and struggled mightily to catch up for the next six weeks. By the time he started to look like even a semblance of the player he was during his All-Star se Continue reading here: Bill Meltzer
about 1 hour ago
Let me first say this: right now, as you read this piece, Sean Couturier is one of the best defensive forwards in the National Hockey League, despite being all of 20 years old. Any criticism of him otherwise should be noted in light of t...
Let me first say this: right now, as you read this piece, Sean Couturier is one of the best defensive forwards in the National Hockey League, despite being all of 20 years old. Any criticism of him otherwise should be noted in light of this fact, because it's a fairly incredible one, and he could be scoring ten points a season and still be pretty valuable with his defensive talents. But if you read this site on a semi-regular basis, you already know that fact, so this post isn't going to talk very much about Corsi or zone starts or all of that. The post linked in the previous paragraph posed the question of how much offensive potential Sean Couturier has, and that's a question that's on everyone's mind following this season. I think some of the critiques lobbed his way this season are a bit harsh, and I still haven't seen anything written about him since roughly March that didn't have the phrase "sophomore slump" in it somewhere, which is annoying. But his offensive game wasn't where we wanted it to be this year, and that's near impossible to deny. So let's talk a bit about the guy who's gone from "unanticipated surprise of the Jeff Carter trade" to "untouchable, even for Shea Weber" to "disappointing sophomore forward who can't score". *** First of all, it's worth noting that Couturier's total point production really didn't fall off much at all from last year to this year. He went from a rookie year output of 0.35 points per game to 0.33 per game this year. There was a dropoff at even strength (1.81 P/60 last year to 1.14 this year), but improved performance on the PP (1.73 P/60 last year, 3.51 this year) helped close that gap. Granted, it's fair to expect him to take a step forward in his 19/20-year old season, compared to his 18/19-year old one, so that can be seen as disappointing regardless. But it's not as though he was that much worse than last year. When looking at surprising point totals (in either direction), we also try to consider shooting percentage, since -- as our own Eric T. recently pointed out -- year-to-year fluctuation there can frequently and drastically affect a player's scoring. You can pretty plainly see that those numbers trended in the wrong direction for Couturier this year. (percentages from behindthenet.ca) 5v5 Individual Shooting % 5v5 On-Ice Shooting % 5v4 On-Ice Shooting % 2011-12 9.1% 9.6% 15.0% 2013 4.3% 7.3% 12.5% If his percentages had all matched what they were last year, we'd have seen a noticeable bump in his point totals -- the bump in his own shooting percentage is worth at another three goals or so on its own, and he'd pick up at least a couple of assists if his on-ice percentages were in line with those of previous years. So while his point totals were down, his luck was way, way down. *** One thing that frustrated Flyers fans last year was the fact that Couturier spent far, far too much time saddled with linemates simply not up to his offensive skill level. As you probably know, that trend continued this year. Here are his most frequent icemates (among forwards), via stats.hockeyanalysis.com: Player Ice Time % of Couturier's time Maxime Talbot 176:07 34.2% Matt Read 164:56 32.0% Mike Knuble 123:29 24.0% Zac Rinaldo 89:22 17.3% Ruslan Fedotenko 75:58 14.7% Danny Briere 63:48 12.4% Wayne Simmonds 61:12 11.9% Simon Gagne 60:02 11.7% Jakub Voracek 59:25 11.5% Scott Hartnell 40:42 7.9% Adam Hall 40:02 7.8% Jay Rosehill 23:27 4.6% Tye McGinn 18:31 3.6% Claude Giroux 9:51 1.9% Harry Zolnierczyk 9:08 1.8% Brayden Schenn 8:14 1.6% Among his five most frequent linemates, only one of them -- Matt Read -- exhibited much in the way of offensive talent this year, maybe two if you also include Knuble. It's one thing to put the guy in a defensively-oriented position; it's another to essentially neuter an
about 2 hours ago
Photo credit: Terry Wilson / OHL Images By Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell) The 2013 NHL Entry Draft in New Jersey is just over a month away. As we inch closer to this year’s draft, I’ll continue to plug away and post as many scouting reports...
Photo credit: Terry Wilson / OHL Images By Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell) The 2013 NHL Entry Draft in New Jersey is just over a month away. As we inch closer to this year’s draft, I’ll continue to plug away and post as many scouting reports on the top draft eligible players from the Ontario Hockey League as I can. Here is my scouting report on 2013 draft eligible forward Bo Horvat of the London Knights. Bo Horvat Age – 18 Position – Center Height – 6? 0? Weight – 203 Draft Projection: 8-14th overall OHL Team: London Knights 2013 Regular Season Stats: 33 goals, 28 assists, 61 points, +3, 29PIM, 67 games played 2013 Playoff Stats: 16 goals, 7 assists, 23 points, 10PIM, 21 games played NHL Comparable(s) – Patrice Bergeron Upside – 8/10 Strengths – You can make a very strong case that Bo Horvat is the most complete player in this year’s draft class. He does so many things well and can make a positive impact in so many different ways that he amazes me almost every time I see him. Horvat is an extremely reliable two-way player, who is among the best in the OHL when it comes to winning faceoffs. His attention to detail, especially in his own zone, is second to none. He’s rarely caught out of position and is used in every defensive situation by Knights head coach, Dale Hunter. Horvat isn’t just a defensive specialist, though. He’s a good skater, knows how to drive possession and possesses above average puck skills. He sees the ice well, has a very high hockey IQ and always knows where he needs to be on the ice. Horvat has a hard, accurate shot and is a good passer as well. Horvat leaves everything he has on the ice every shift and is very rarely outworked. He’s very strong on the puck and wins a ton of battles along the boards. He’ll finish his checks and isn’t afraid to be physical, but he always keeps a calm demeanour no matter what happens. Horvat doesn’t take many penalties or retaliate to the opposition when they attempt to get under his skin, which you don’t find often in a young player who plays the way he does. He’s not afraid to go to the dirty areas, he’ll block shots and is the definition of a team first guy. Horvat will do whatever it takes to win and has outstanding leadership qualities. He most certainly has potential to take on a leadership role in the NHL down the road. Weaknesses – While he’s a good skater, he would benefit from a little more explosiveness in his stride. He isn’t really dynamic offensively, but given he has offensive ability and is above average in so many aspects of the game, that shouldn’t hinder him at all. Horvat isn’t afraid to use his body and will finish checks, but I’d like to see a little more edge in his game, too. Career Projection – Horvat’s an exceptional two-way player with high end leadership qualities, so there’s nothing stopping him from having a lot of success in the NHL. He has the upside to be a top-line center but the safe projection is probably an above average second line center. 2013 Draft Eligible Prospect Profiles: Sean Monahan – Ottawa 67?s Darnell Nurse – Soo Greyhounds Max Domi – London Knights Ryan Hartman – Plymouth Whalers – Follow Todd on twitter @ToddCordell NHLToddCordell@Gmail.com The post Bo Horvat Scouting Report: 2013 NHL Draft Prospect Profile – London Knights appeared first on The Hockey Guys.
about 4 hours ago
Photo courtesy of OHL Images By: Christian Roatis (@CRoatis)  In the next few weeks I’ll break down 5 potential draft targets for the Calgary Flames at each of the 3 spots they draft. Calgary Pick #6: Options: Pos. -  Name –...
Photo courtesy of OHL Images By: Christian Roatis (@CRoatis)  In the next few weeks I’ll break down 5 potential draft targets for the Calgary Flames at each of the 3 spots they draft. Calgary Pick #6: Options: Pos. -  Name – Team – League – Height – Weight (Ranked in order of desirability) C Aleksander Barkov, Tappara, SM-liiga, 6’2, 205lbs C Elias Lindholm, Brynas, Elitserien, 6’0, 185lbs RW Valeri Nichushkin, Traktor Chelyabinsk, KHL, 6’3, 175lbs C Sean Monahan, Ottawa, OHL, 6’2, 195lbs D Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste. Marie, OHL, 6’5, 190lbs Aleksander Barkov: The chances of Barkov still being available at six is highly, if not extremely unlikely. He’s an elite blend of speed and skill all packaged into an NHL ready frame. He thinks the game at a world-class level and never neglects his defensive responsibilities. Described by many scouts as one of the greatest prospects to come out of Finland, Barkov played his entire draft eligible year in Finland’s top men’s league, the SM-Liiga. Not only did he play the entire year, he logged upwards of 20 minutes and put up 21 goals for 48 points in 53 games. Not only does Barkov project into the mould of an Anze Kopitar – an elite number one center – but he also seems to be much closer to his ceiling already than other fellow draft eligible’s. Flames fans however can stop drooling now because getting Aleksander Barkov at 6 is all but a pipe dream. After the top 3 (Jones, MacKinnon and Drouin) the likeliness Barkov slips past both Nashville and Carolina is nearly nil. Elias Lindholm: Should Barkov somehow slip to 6, it would be thanks to Nashville and Carolina favouring two other prospects and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Elias Lindholm was one of those prospects. He and Barkov share many similarities. They both pride themselves in taking care of the defensive zone first and then are not lost whatsoever when it comes time for offense. Lindholm features lightning quick hands and excellent vision that make him a playmaking threat whenever he steps out on the ice. Also, like Barkov he played his draft eligible season in a men’s league. Lindholm played a starring role on Brynas of the Swedish Elite League often logging over 20 minutes a night and amounting an impressive 11 goals for 30 points in 48 games. In comparison, Mats Sundin had only 10 goals and 18 points in 34 SEL games during his draft eligible season. If the draft shakes down the way most prognosticate it to, Lindholm will be available to pick at #6 and I think he’ll be given strong consideration by Flames brass, after all his upside is massive. Valeri Nichushkin: Nichushkin is the wild card of this draft class. He has an all-world skill set and a ceiling as high as anyone in this draft class. Some scouts go as far as saying he’s a top 2 talent. Same scouts however would not select him within the top 5 because of the all dreaded “Russian Factor”. For those of you not familiar with the meaning behind the Russian Factor, it refers to a player either not coming over to North America or bolting back to Russia regardless of contract or otherwise to sign lucrative contracts in their homeland. The KHL poses a huge threat to the NHL with their and luring players of to come play in their league with promises of tax-free money and glory. Alexander Radulov is a prime example of bolting back to Russia in spite of his contract. Radulov’s actions only elevated fears that top prospects may do the same and since the incident Russian players draft stocks have taken a tumble. Nichushkin however has the skill set to over match the so called Russian Factor and incite a team to take him high in the draft. He’s already a pretty big man at 6 foot 3 and skates exceptionally well for a big guy. He posses top notch hands and great shot but lacks in defensive zone, not uncommon for young high scoring dynam
about 5 hours ago
*These nights with only one game are boring. Wings fans with the recap of last night's action. *Eric T. on shooting percentage and shot rates. (BSH) *Even non-sports fans think +/- is a stupid stat. (Flyers Faithful) *The AHL presiden...
*These nights with only one game are boring. Wings fans with the recap of last night's action. *Eric T. on shooting percentage and shot rates. (BSH) *Even non-sports fans think +/- is a stupid stat. (Flyers Faithful) *The AHL president isn't happy with NBC's never mentioning his league. (SCoC) *Don Cherry thinks NHLers are nuts to play in the Worlds. Don Cherry calling people nuts: lol. (CBC) *A look at possible draftee Anthony Mantha. (Flyers Faithful) *Hating the Penguins leads to all kinds of good things, like excellent tips for waitresses. (Puck Daddy) *Here's Jagr, at 8PM, practicing alone on the ice. There's a reason he's superhuman. (Twitter) *Evgeni Malkin stares into your soul, inspires nightmares. (SB Nation) *This video, of mic'd NHLers, is fantastic. HBO's 24/7 should be on uh...24/7. (Backhand Shelf)
about 9 hours ago
Throughout the Summer of 2013, PhiladelphiaFlyers.com will be conducting a bracket-style Tournament in which YOU, the Fan, can cast your vote and choose who keeps advancing until the year's best Flyers highlight is unveiled. Below is the...
Throughout the Summer of 2013, PhiladelphiaFlyers.com will be conducting a bracket-style Tournament in which YOU, the Fan, can cast your vote and choose who keeps advancing until the year's best Flyers highlight is unveiled. Below is the official ... Original post: Flyers Recent Headlines
about 22 hours ago
Read more: Flyers Recent Headlines
Read more: Flyers Recent Headlines
about 22 hours ago
Wrapup: Flyers at World Championships Congratulations to Flyers defenseman Erik Gustafsson and the rest of Tre Kronor for ending Switzerland's undefeated run at the 2013 IIHF World Championships, capturing the gold medal game by a 5-1 sc...
Wrapup: Flyers at World Championships Congratulations to Flyers defenseman Erik Gustafsson and the rest of Tre Kronor for ending Switzerland's undefeated run at the 2013 IIHF World Championships, capturing the gold medal game by a 5-1 score. The Swedish team had some ups and downs during the preliminary round but peaked at just the right time in the 10-game tournament. Additional congratulat See the rest here: Bill Meltzer
1 day ago
Point totals have a very strong influence in how we evaluate forwards. The goal and assist columns in a stat sheet are very frequently referenced, and the plays where those stats are accumulated weigh heavily on our eye test and our memo...
Point totals have a very strong influence in how we evaluate forwards. The goal and assist columns in a stat sheet are very frequently referenced, and the plays where those stats are accumulated weigh heavily on our eye test and our memory. But we don't talk much about what drives point scoring. I've written about how out-shooting leads to winning at the team level, but at the individual level we know some players shoot for a much higher percentage than others. So is the difference in shot quality larger than the difference in shot rate at the individual level? What really leads to high point totals? In the plots below, we look at the correlation between a player's point scoring rate and either (top plot) his team's shot rate with him on the ice or (bottom plot) his team's shooting percentage with him on the ice. A strong correlation would mean that having a high value for one would lead to a high value for the other and the points would fall near a straight line. It's clear from these plots that in any given season, a player's point scoring rate is much more heavily driven by the shooting percentages than the shot rates. Both have an effect, but the correlation in the lower plot is much stronger (R^2 of 0.67 vs 0.37). But this doesn't really settle things yet. In any given season, shooting percentage might be more important, but what if shooting percentage varies a lot? Below are two plots looking at how well shooting percentage in one year predicts shooting percentage or point scoring in the following year. It turns out that shooting percentages aren't very repeatable after all; these correlation plots look more like blobs than lines. Essentially, the variance in shooting percentage is a much bigger factor than either the shot rate or the talent component of shooting percentage. So the team's shooting percentage with a given player on the ice is a strong driver of his point total in any given year, but it turns out to be a pretty poor predictor of what will happen next year. Even though shot rate has less impact on point scoring, its greater repeatability (R^2 of 0.36 vs 0.11) actually makes it more useful for predicting next year's point totals. As we move to larger sample sizes, the variance will start to wash out a bit and we can get a better indication of a player's talent. Still, shot rate remains both more repeatable and more predictive of future point scoring: Reliability Predictive of points Shot rate (1 yr) 0.36 0.24 Shooting percentage (1 yr) 0.11 0.14 Shot rate (2 yr) 0.42 0.36 Shooting percentage (2 yr) 0.21 0.27 Shot rate (3 yr) 0.47 0.45 Shooting percentage (3 yr) 0.29 0.35 Up to now, I've framed this as an either/or choice, but it really isn't. It's interesting to note that shot rate appears to be a larger factor than shooting percentage, but both factors do contribute, and we should use both factors when trying to project a player's future scoring. However, it is critical to bear in mind that a single year's shooting percentage data is almost entirely noise. When we set expectations for a player, we need to look at multiple years of shooting percentage data and remember that whatever happened last month or even last year is pretty close to meaningless. Don't fret too much about how low Hartnell's on-ice shooting percentage was this year or get too excited about how high Voracek's was. If a rookie like Nazem Kadri or Jordan Eberle has one of the very highest on-ice shooting percentages in recent years, it's a better guess that they won't keep it up than that they're destined for sure-fire superstardom. Point totals are a reasonable way to measure a player's offensive contributions. But we need to keep in mind that they're not only driven by usage (ice time, power play time, and situational deployment); they're also heavily driven by random blips in shooting percentage, blips that don't tell us much at all about what will happen in the futur
1 day ago
*I've decided that boycotting Pens games is what's best for my mental health. Hooray for recaps! *Erik Gustafsson won gold! And he was a huge part of the win, not to mention his team's success throughout the tourney. (IIHF) *Meltzer on...
*I've decided that boycotting Pens games is what's best for my mental health. Hooray for recaps! *Erik Gustafsson won gold! And he was a huge part of the win, not to mention his team's success throughout the tourney. (IIHF) *Meltzer on Gus. (Hockeybuzz) *Anthony SanFilippo on the Flyers' best-player-available draft strategy. (Flyers.com) *Reviewing the worst of this past season. (Flyers Faithful) *The Memorial Cup has begun, with some Flyers prospects playing major roles. (Flyers.com) *Speaking of the Memorial Cup, this bit of awkward helped kick things off. (Backhand Shelf) *Alternative NHL Awards. (On the Forecheck) *How size affects (or doesn't) injuries. (HEotP) *The Baby Pens & Bruins brawl in the AHL playoffs. (Puck Daddy) *The Maple Leafs broke the heart of the coolest astronaut since Buzz. (TSN)
1 day ago