Philadelphia Phillies

Australian pitcher Josh Warner began the 2013 season as a member of the starting rotation for the Class A Lakewood BlueClaws. Through six starts, the 20-year-old right-hander posted a 1-3 record along with a 7.50 ERA. Phillies brass decided to reassign Warner to extended spring training so he could make some adjustments to his delivery aimed at enhancing his deception toward hitters. The Queensland native, who pitches for the Brisbane Bandits in the Australian Baseball League during the off-season, was signed by the Phils as an amateur free agent in 2010. Combined over the past two seasons, since making his affiliated pro debut, Warner has split his time with the Gulf Coast League Phillies, the Williamsport Crosscutters and Lakewood, posting a combined 7-13 record along with a 5.28 ERA. Early this season I spoke with Josh for Phillies Nation TV, but the interview went unused on the television program. During the interview, Josh spoke about the growth of baseball down under, his time in the ABL and more. Check out the interview in the media player below and tune into Phillies Nation TV every Tuesday at 6 PM on The Comcast Network.

The Phillies are coming off a huge win and emotional high yesterday that almost wasn't. With Cliff Lee getting picked off, things didn't look good. They were followed up with Erik Kratz's solo shot that would have tied it, before Freddy Galvis picked everyone up with a walkoff homer, back to back with Kratz. That walkoff sealed the series win for the Phillies, as Dusty Baker remains winless in series against the Phillies at CBP. With the Reds in the rear view, the Phillies head to Marlins park for a three game series with the lowly Marlins. The Phils will see Alex Sanabia, Jose Fernandez and Kevin Slowey. Jose Fernandez in particular has been nothing short of frustrating for the Phillies, but Kevin Slowey provided them with a ton of problems the last time he faced them, that of course being Roy Halladay's last start before his DL stint. The Phillies managed to make some progress against the Nationals, who lost the last two games of their series to the Padres, but not the Braves. Atlanta swept the disappointing Los Angeles Dodgers to keep their stranglehold on the NL East. The Braves however, only lead the division by 4.5 games. With the Twins visiting Atlanta and the Phillies taking on the lowly Marlins, it's possible that some progress can be made. Of course, nothing is ever easy as seen in the Phillieslast series with Miami. The Marlins are bad, ok? They're just bad. They rank an even 30th in runs, batting average, on base percentage and slugging. They have a 12-32 record, and their leader in average is Placido Polanco at a .232. Justin Ruggiano is one to be watched however, with 7 home runs on the season. OH! And Juan Pierre hit a home run this year! Giancarlo Stanton however, is still on the DL. Luckily, the Phillies will miss the Mighty Giancarlo Stanton once again. Other than that, the keys to this series? FIGURE OUT JOSE FERNANDEZ, and to sweep this series. Come on, we have to.

And when you’re done chuckling at this for the rest of your work day, please enjoy the one after the jump:

Ruf could be on his way if Howard sees the DL. Photo by: Ian Riccaboni Ryan Howard is getting a precautionary MRI on his left knee and will likely be out for Monday’s game against the Marlins. John Finger and John Gonzalez of CSNPhilly are saying Howard’s knee, according to Howard, is a day-to-day issue. Of note, however, Howard also said his knee has been bothering him since Spring Training and that it “kicked in a little bit more than normal” on Saturday. All was going well for IronPigs’ outfielder, and part-time first baseman, Darin Ruf going into May 16. Earlier that week, he got defensive praise from the Phillies Farm Director Joe Jordan, saying “The left-field play has been very good.  It’s not a concern for me. It’s not a concern at all.” And then the bat caught fire: he was suddenly hitting .290/.367/.486 after a slow start with 12 2B and 5 HR in 138 PA heading into the morning of May 16. It is a shame the Phillies now need a first baseman instead of an outfielder – Ruf would have fit right in. I kid. A lot of folks will get excited and call for Ruf to get called up. I will be one of them. Ruf should have a shot to play every day in left field, moving Domonic Brown to right field and excommunicating Delmon Young (.208/.298/.333 in 57 PA), but now that there may be an opening at first base, he should absolutely get first dibs. Don’t get me wrong, Ruf has recently gone ice cold (0-17 with nine Ks). But anything to add a little patience, Phils are tied for 24th in OBP, punch, Phils are tied for 26th in SLG, or both, Phils rank 27th, would be very much welcome. Ruf could conceivable add a little bit more of both. Ruf’s current .349 OBP in Triple-A Lehigh Valley would rank ahead of all Phillies with over 100 PA not named Michael Young. Obviously, the jump in level would shave down a portion of that number but consider this: John Mayberry Jr. has the third highest OBP on the team, after Young and Chase Utley, at .304. It would be hard to get much worse than what the Phils have had at first base this year. Howard ranks 26th in fWAR among first baseman who would qualify for the batting title and 49th among the pool of every player to play first base this year. The Phillies first base brigade ranks 26th in getting on base, 18th in slugging, 23rd in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+.  While I wish Ryan Howard a speedy recovery, the Phillies have a player capable of producing at least as well ready should he need to see the DL.

Contents - Phillies Hitters vs. Projections- Phillies Team Stats vs. 2012 and vs. Marlins- NL Standings and team stats- Milestones Phillies Hitters vs. Projections 2013 doesn't look like it's going to help this stat, but in researching something else I came across this tidbit -- highest cumulative fWAR by a team's catchers, 1990-2012: 1. Dodgers 87.12. Phillies 67.43. Braves 63.1 Phillies Team Stats vs. 2012 and vs. Marlins Hitting As mentioned in Friday's Stat Notes, the color coding here has been changed from indicating higher/lower, to better or worse. K% therefore changed, as well as SH/G, where I took the position that fewer sacrifices are better. The other possibly debatable position I took is that more SB attempts are better. And again, the other change is the addition in the "small ball" section of productive outs as a % of opportunities, which are defined at baseball-reference.com as 1) successful sacrifice for a pitcher with one out, 2) advancing any runner with none out, or 3) driving in a base runner with the second out of the inning. The Phils are 2nd in the NL in how often they are successful in advancing the base runner in those situations. That is one of the few bright spots for the Phillies, breaking up an otherwise steady stream of worse than average performances. But they can at least say they're not as bad as the Marlins, who continue to display an impressive series of "15"s down their list of offensive rankings: Pitching and Defense I've added four defensive metrics to this table. Below are their descriptions -- the first three from baseball-reference.com, and UZR from FanGraphs: - Defensive Efficiency: Percentage of balls in play converted into outs. This is an estimate based on team defensive and pitching stats. - Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average: The number of runs above or below average the player/team was worth, based on the number of plays made. - Defensive Runs Saved Above Average: The number of runs above or below average the player/team worth, based on the number of plays made. Also known as the Dewan Plus/Minus system. - Ultimate Zone Rating: the number of runs above or below average the player/team is worth, by comparing them to the league average in how often they convert balls hit to their zones into outs. The number shown here is actually the more comprehensive "Fld" number in FG, which combines UZR and a catcher rating, since catchers aren't included in UZR. Good description of UZR here. Maybe it's because the sample size is small, but the Phillies' numbers are quite different across the four methods to this point, ranking as high as 3rd in Total Zone, and as low as 14th in UZR. The four should not be viewed as being equally valid. UZR and DRS are probably the most accurate, but all of these, including UZR and DRS, would presumably be subject to small-sample noise after only a quarter of the season. NL Standings and Team Stats The Marlins are on pace for a 44-118 record. And no team has averaged less than three runs scored per game over a full season in 44 years -- last done when the 1969 expansion Padres averaged 2.89. Milestones Milestones likely to be reached over the next week or so... Jimmy Rollins- Rollins' next walk (13th this year) will tie Ed Delahanty for 7th most in Phils' history with 643.- His next RBI (18th), will tie him with Greg Luzinski for 10th most all-time for the Phillies, at 811.- Three more RBIs (21 total) will tie Bobby Abreu for 9th most, with 814.- He also needs 4 more home runs to reach 200 for his career, becoming the 10th Phillie to do so. That will make Rollins just the 9th player (and only shortstop) in MLB history to have 2,000 hits, 400 stolen bases, and 200 home runs. Chase Utley- His next HBP (which will be his first this year) will break a tie with Chet Lemon and move him into sole possession of 21st place in MLB history, with 152. A second HBP will tie him with Hall of Fame outfielder Fred C

Cam Perkins doesn’t have a hit in 4 games, but he does have 5 walks in those 4 contests. So that’s nice. And Austin Wright came back from the DL - I’m choosing to pretend that I didn’t see the results, and so I remain content that Austin Wright came back from the DL. Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130519

There were two breakout stars in yesterday’s thrilling win over the Reds. No, not Eric Kratz and Freddy Galvis. They were “Thumbs Up Kid” and “Pudgy Jorts Guy”. Some background on each: In the sixth inning, Dom Brown made a nice sliding catch in foul territory. As he was popping up to show off his hose (and throw the ball away for an error allowing the donkey on first to advance), THUMBS UP KID launched into an immediate, well… thumbs up. Love it. My man is earnest, sincere, and appreciative of an underutilized gesture of support. High fi… err, no, thumbs up to you! Pudgy Jorts Guy had a more glamorous role– he stole the show on Freddy Galvis’ walkoff shot. Now normally I’d recommend against wearing jorts in general, and if you’re gonna do so maybe don’t tuck  in your t-shirt, but whatevs, we still love you baby! Way to go, team!

Gloomy and drizzling. That was Sunday’s weather at Citizens Bank Park. For the Phillies offense, it was gloomy and no fizzle. Then, without thunder booming anywhere, lightning struck. Scoreless for 16 innings, the Phillies pushed across a run in the eighth, cutting the gap to 2-1. Cliff pinch-ran for Delmon who started the ninth with a walk against flame-throwing closer Chapman. Cliff made a mistake and was picked off first. He returned to the dugout, an angry person and sat with his head down muttering to himself. Eric, who entered the game when Chooch left with an injury, drilled a game-tying home run to left, which could have been the game winner. Up stepped Freddy who delivered the dramatic, game-winning home run. Against lefthanded pitching, he now has three hits this season, two being home runs. Smiles were everywhere, including Cliff. From Elias Sports Bureau: The Phillies hadn’t hit back-to-back home runs capped by a walk-off shot since they did it against the Cardinals at Baker Bowl on September 15, 1922. Butch Henline’s solo shot, his third home run of the game, tied the score at 9-9 in the bottom of the ninth and Cliff Lee (no, not the pitcher) followed with a game-ending homer. With the win, the Phillies took the series from the Reds. We’re at May 20 and we will no longer see Cincinnati this season. We’re at May 20 and haven’t seen the Nationals yet. That all changes soon. After the game, the Phillies took a happy flight to Miami to start of an eight-game, I-95 east coast trip, Miami to Washington to Boston. Saturday Night Live The Phillies, Lehigh Valley. Reading and Lakewood were all home this weekend. On Saturday, the combined attendance was 64,513, a day in which the friendly weather wasn’t ideal. Minor League Report, Weekend Edition **Lehigh Valley won 2 of 3, the loss coming Sunday 11-0, getting just 3 hits. 2B Cesar Hernandez was 4-8 in the first two games with steals #11-12. **Reading was swept in all three games by Harrisburg. 1B Jim Murphy hit his 9th homer on Saturday. **Clearwater lost 2 of 3 to Tampa, the losses coming in 13 and 10 innings (Friday & Saturday). **Lakewood won Friday, lost Saturday and was rained out Sunday. 3B Mitch Walding, 4-8, including 9th double. This Date May 20, 1983–LHP Steve Carlton moves into second place on the all-time strikeout list ahead of RHP Walter Johnson when he fans San Diego SS Garry Templeton (#3,509) in the second inning of a 5-0 Padres win. Visit http://www.phillies.com/alumni.

In a rare start in yesterday’s series finale against the Cincinnati Reds, Freddy Galvis went 2-for-4 including a walk-off solo home run to right field off of flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. The performance boosted his weighted on-base average to .387, the best mark on the team (min. five plate appearances). The Phillies have tried to find a way to use him, but haven’t been able to justify giving anyone in the infield more than the odd day off. Galvis has started more games in left field (four) than at any other position except third base (also four). Ryan Howard did not start yesterday due to soreness in his left knee. He did not travel with the team to Miami for the start of a nine-game road trip as he will have an MRI today and await further prognosis. Howard has been struggling offensively all year as he has a .296 wOBA, more than 80 points below his career average. As the lefty has battled lower-half injuries since the end of the 2011 post-season, it would make sense for the Phillies to play it very safe with Howard and put him on the 15-day disabled list. Such a move would bolster the team in two ways: by removing Howard’s unproductive bat and glove until he’s healthier and adding Galvis, whose bat and glove are significantly more valuable by comparison. Galvis would go to third base and Michael Young would move across the diamond to first base, where he played yesterday and where he had logged 655 defensive innings previously in his career with the Texas Rangers. The Phillies have struggled offensively and Howard has a lot to do with that since he has had the most plate appearances with runners on base (82), but only the fifth-best percentage of other players driven in (15.8 percent). This isn’t to say that Howard can’t be productive going forward, but that the Phillies should use his ailing knee as motivation to get a more productive player in the lineup while Howard heals up and works out his performance issues outside of game time.

Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports It’s been thought that if the Phillies fall out of contention within in the next two months (and judging by the level of play so far in the NL East, that seems a bit remote at the moment), the team should go into full-on “sell mode” and start rebuilding this team for the future. And yes, if that is the case, that should definitely happen. However, a youth movement may not only be good for this team’s future, it could also make them better in the present. The reason for that is not only the improved play of youngsters like Freddy Galvis and Domonic Brown, it’s also the lack of production the Phils are getting from veterans like Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Delmon Young, Carlos Ruiz, Mike Adams, Raul Valdes, Chad Durbin, and others. Of course, everyone is all excited about Galvis after his 2 for 4 performance in Sunday’s miraculous 3-2 walk-off win over the Reds, including his game-winning, bottom of the ninth inning homer off Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman. And people are definitely intrigued by the performance of starter Jonathan Pettibone, who threw seven very effective innings yesterday. And clearly no one wants to see Durbin or Valdes run out there in the middle innings anymore, with Justin De Fratus in the ‘pen and other young arms in the minors offering more potential. Howard, as good a guy as he is, just isn’t getting the job done. He has just six home runs so far this year, putting him on pace to hit 22 through 162 games. He’s in a 4 for 35 slump and is now hitting .245/.282/.430 for a pathetic-for-him OPS of .713. And now, he’s set to get an MRI on a sore left knee, which could put him on the disabled list. He’s set to earn at least $85 million over the next three years FOLLOWING this year. He’s making $20 million in 2013. Halladay is also earning $20 million and could be lost for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. This, after being maybe the worst pitcher in the sport through his first seven starts, with an 8.65 ERA. Delmon Young has been a black hole in the #5 spot in the order since joining the team, hitting .208/.286/.333 for an OPS of .619 in 56 PAs. I would argue small sample size with him, but his career dictates that this is pretty much par for the course. Ruiz just rejoined the team after his 25-game suspension for Aderral use, but it’s been a grind for him as well (12 for 50 with 2 2Bs in 55 PAs), and now he may hit the DL after leaving Sunday’s game with a strained hamstring. Neither Howard nor Ruiz made the trip to Miami. Those are two veterans the team was counting on to help lead the offense that are unlikely to play in this upcoming three-game series with Miami, and perhaps beyond. The veterans in the bullpen – Adams, Valdes and Durbin – have also been an issue. Adams has been reasonably effective with a 3.00 ERA 15 IP so far this year. But back spasms have forced him out of action for the last week, and he could hit the DL on Monday after the Phillies promote Tyler Cloyd from AAA for his start on Tuesday in Miami. Durbin and Valdes have just been plain awful. For some of these struggling and/or injured vets, finding a young replacement isn’t an option. Erik Kratz, Sunday’s other hero, will assume the catching duties in Ruiz’ absence, with Humberto Quintero being recalled from Lehigh Valley to be the back-up. Tommy Joseph, the team’s likely catcher of the future, has struggled in AAA and is currently not playing due to a concussion. And replacing Adams’ experience in the eighth inning with relievers like De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont or Mike Stutes (who could get called up on Monday as well) is tough, but could be necessary. Who knows, maybe it will be an improvement. What the play of Brown, Galvis, Pettibone and others has done, however, is show that maybe these young guys have a little bit of game. And maybe, they’