I recently had the pleasure of flipping through the Hockey Prospectus 2013-14 by Robert Vollman et al. So that got me curious as to how the Pittsburgh Penguins roster looks based on the data gathered from some of the less widely used met...
I recently had the pleasure of flipping through the Hockey Prospectus 2013-14 by Robert Vollman et al. So that got me curious as to how the Pittsburgh Penguins roster looks based on the data gathered from some of the less widely used metrics. And since it conveniently provided 3 years worth of data, I decided to look at the past 3 years for all the metrics.
Hockey Prospectus uses Goals vs Threshold (GvT) created by Tom Awad as their primary statistical measure. There are a lot of different factors involved in calculating the total, but basically the stat looks at the players' ability to contribute to his team scoring goals and compares it to how much more effective they are than a replacement level player, i.e. a 13th F/AHL call-up type player.
It is separated into Offensive GvT, Defensive GvT, Shootout GvT, and Goaltending GvT which are then added together to give us the total GvT. OGvT is a measure of the skater's ability to contribute to his own team's goal scoring, DGvT is a measure of the skater/goaltender's contribution towards preventing their opponents' goal scoring, SGvT is a measure the skater's ability to score or the goaltenders ability to make saves during the shootout, and GGvT is the goalie specific portion of preventing goals.
For OGvT the Pens top players over the past 3 years is unsurprisingly our current crop of Top 6 forwards. Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Kunitz, Dupuis, and Jokinen, with Bennett trailing in from behind. Crosby has been consistent for the past 3 years, but Malkin has bounced up and down. Dupuis and Neal had an offensive breakout the past 2 seasons, so their most recent data is consistent, while Kunitz was consistent for 2 seasons before a big breakout last year. And Jokinen had an off year in 2011-12, but it is sandwiched between two seasons of consistent data.
Then of course the lower tier are our remaining Bottom 6 options. Sutter, Jeffrey, D`Agostini, Kobasew, Vitale, Adams, and Glass. Sutter and Adams have consistent numbers the past 2 seasons, while Jeffrey and D`Agostini had excellent seasons 3 years ago but then fell precipitously. However, while D`Agostini continued his downward spiral last year, Jeffrey turned things around and was on the upswing. Kobasew and Vitale had relatively poor numbers in the first 2 seasons, but by last year Kobasew improved greatly whilst Vitale plummeted. Then there is Glass, easily the lowest on the team. However, while his numbers offensively have never been positive, it was consistent for 2 years before having an extreme drop off last year.
On D, unsurprisingly the highest is Letang, followed a ways down by Martin. Bortuzzo, Niskanen, and Engelland fall in the middle, and at the low end we have Orpik and Scuderi. Letang, Martin, and Niskanen's numbers have been climbing exponentially the past 3 years, and Bortuzzo, well, limited data makes his data have an extreme upward shift. Engelland had been climbing steadily the first 2 years, but had an extreme drop off last season. Orpik was consistently mediocre for two seasons and then also had an extreme slump last year. And Scuderi had a poor 2011-12 sandwiched between two consistently mediocre seasons.
For DGvT we see some unexpected results. Dupuis is the top defensive forward on the team, but not far behind we unexpectedly find Crosby. Then we go back to the realm of the expected and have Adams, followed by Kunitz, Sutter, and D`Agostini. So the best 6 from a defensive standpoint are our 3 1st liners, 2 3rd liners, and a 4th liner... after that we have Bennett, Jokinen, Kobasew, Neal, Jeffrey, Malkin, Glass, and Vitale.
Over the past 3 seasons Dupuis, Crosby, and Kobasew have actually improved ever so slightly. Adams, Glass, and Vitale, on the other hand, were consistent for 2 seasons and then had an extreme drop off last year. Kunitz and Malkin have been inconsistent defensively, but Kunitz improved over the past season whilst Malkin declined. Sutter, oddly enough, has been trailing off def