Pittsburgh Pirates

In both 2011 and 2012, Andrew McCutchen got off to a bit of a slow start. In his first 25 games of 2011, he only hit .202/.318/.348. In 2012, he got off to a more rounded start, but he didn't hit a home run until his 28th game of the season. In both seasons, I pointed out encouraging signs from McCutchen's start and wrote a post that amounted to, "If he gets hot, he's going to be having an incredible season." In 2011, it was that his walk rate took a big jump forward. In 2012, I noted that his batting average was much higher than it had been in the past. One of the great things about a player like Andrew McCutchen is that you can predict he's about to get hot at just about any point and he'll make you look like a genius. This is the 2013 edition of that post. The Pirates are 26-17 and if you asked a fan to point to the players that have contributed the most offensively to the club's scorching quarter-season, I think that most people would point to Starling Marte and Russell Martin. This is not the wrong answer! Martin is hitting .269/.360/.504 including his awful start, and since April 15th (the day after Mike McKenry hit two home runs against the Reds and we all collectively decided that Russell Martin sucked) he's hitting .341/.426/.648. He's drawing walks and driving the ball into the gaps and hitting home runs and he's thus far generally looked like 24-year old Russell Martin again. It'd be foolish to count on this happening for a full season, but it'd also be flatly wrong to deny his huge contribution to this point in the season. Marte has cooled off a bit lately, but he's more or less been every Pirate fan's best case scenario for him to this point, blasting extra base hits all over the park and running the bases like an incredibly fast maniac and flashing home run power when it's needed. Most fans wouldn't give Andrew McCutchen as an answer right now. He went through one of the worst slumps of his career from April 21- April 29, hitting just .100 over those eight games with a measly three singles in 30 at-bats. He came out of that streak with a four-hit night against the Brewers on the 30th and since then he's had another four-hit game and a three-hit game and that huge walkoff homer against the Brewers, but he's been kind of spotty, too, despite his .347 average since breaking out of his slump. He's got a few 0-for-4s and an 0-for-5 all mixed in with those great performances and he doesn't quite seem to own left-handed pitching the way he did last year. With all of this said, it's might surprise you to know that McCutchen's now hitting .274/.341/.457 on the season, which is an OPS+ of 125, which is more or less in line with the first three years of his career. He hasn't really excelled at any point in this season and he's often looked a bit lost, and he's still hitting well above-average at the plate and on pace for a something like a 5-6 WAR season, which would put him in the upper-echelon of NL players for the third year in a row. Here's the thing though: suddenly, he's not striking out so much this year. If I had to pick out one thing about McCutchen's career to this point that hasn't gone perfectly (and please: this is me picking nits here and not me complaining about Andrew McCutchen), it's that his strikeout rate has slowly climbed upwards in each full season of his career. It's never gone over 20%, but 19.6% is starting to get up there. This matters because while 'Cutch has enough power and patience to be a good hitter even when he hits .259, he doesn't quite have enough of either to be able to disregard batting average entirely. This will obviously change throughout his career as he evolves as a hitter, but the way I see Andrew McCutchen right now is that he's an All-Star when he hits .270 and he's an MVP candidate when he hits .300 or better. It's not q

Francisco Liriano (1-0, 1.64) goes against Jeff Samardzija (2-5, 3.49) tonight. Liriano has his swing-and-miss stuff back with 16 K in 11 IP; he also has walked five and given up 12 hits, so he's ducked a few raindrops so far. Samardzija is 4-0 with an 0.92 ERA against the Bucs in his career; 'nuff said there.The game starts at 7:05 and will be aired by Root Sports and 93.7 The Fan.It's also on WGN for out-of-area Bucco followers.Pirate lineup: Starling Marte LF, Travis Snider RF, Andrew McCutchen CF, Garrett Jones 1B, Neil Walker 2b, Russell Martin C, Pedro Alvarez 3B, Jordy Mercer SS and Francisco Liriano P.Jordy is playing short after going 2-for-2 yesterday while Pedro stays in the seven hole. Cub lineup: Julio Borbon CF, Starlin Castro SS, Anthony Rizzo 1B, Alfonso Soriano LF, Scott Hairston RF,Welington Castillo C, Cody Ransom 3B, Darwin Barney 2B and Jeff Samardzija P. Must be their usual card against LHP. With all the good things you hear about Pittsburgh pitching; there's still one number that needs shored up: The Pirates are last in the NL in innings per start (5-1/3), and that will take its toll.The Bucs have won six of their last seven games and nine of their last 11. Fourteen of the team's 27 wins this season have been come-from-behind victories, tied with the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves for the Major League lead.Last night was the was the 10th blown save for the Cubs in 20 save opportunities; Pittsburgh has five misfires in 24 chances.Good philosophy: Clint Hurdle said. "More often than not, home runs are thrown - they're not hit." Pirate players will wear Penguin jerseys when they travel to Milwaukee this weekend and Detroit next week to show support for the club. They'll match uniform numbers when possible.

We're back at it, this time with Neil "Hometown" Walker... The Pittsburgh Kid discusses high school football, hitting lefty/righty, and tells us why we should believe in this year's edition of the Pirates. Also: Who's the most intense Pirate player? Hint: He's probably the most maligned one, too... All this and more at the Rumbunter Podcast: CLICK HERE (opens in new window) Thank you, Charlie, for allowing us to cross-post this - we really appreciate it. We're back at it, this time with Neil "Hometown" Walker... The Pittsburgh Kid discusses high school football, hitting lefty/righty, and tells us why we should believe in this year's edition of the Pirates. Also: Who's the most intense Pirate player? Hint: He's probably the most maligned one, too... All this and more at the Rumbunter Podcast: CLICK HERE (opens in new window) Thank you, Charlie, for allowing us to cross-post this - we really appreciate it.

Stetson Allie has been one of the best stories in the Pirates’ minor league system this year. I get asked all the time why he’s not a top 20 prospect yet, when he’ll be moved up to Double-A, and even what he could become in the future. I’m generally hesitant to give high rankings to first basemen. I’m also hesitant to give high rankings to hitters based on low-A numbers, unless I see some really promising tools that suggest they can hit beyond that level and provide value elsewhere on the field (Gregory Polanco, for example). And if a guy is striking out a lot in A-ball, I’ll be skeptical that he can maintain his hitting in the upper levels. Those are three things that Allie has working against him. But they’re also three theories/beliefs of mine that you could question if you don’t see where I’m coming from. So let’s take a look at some recent examples of players who have done what Stetson Allie is doing this year. Allie is 22 years old and putting up huge numbers in the South Atlantic League. So I went back through the years finding players who were also 22, and also putting up huge numbers in the SAL (by huge numbers, I mean an OPS around 1.000). Here are the players from each season, as well as how they performed after moving to the upper levels. Matt Curry (2011) In 2011 Matt Curry had a monster year in West Virginia. In his 195 plate appearances at the level he had an impressive .361/.477/.671 line with nine homers. He also had a 17.9% walk rate and an 18.7% strikeout rate. The Pirates wanted Aaron Baker to get time at first base in high-A, rather than promoting him to Double-A. So they opted to move Curry up to Altoona, skipping him over high-A. Later in the summer they traded Baker for Derrek Lee, which probably wouldn’t have been possible if Baker was exposed at a higher level. I’m not saying that was their motivation, just an observation of how things played out. Curry struggled initially in Altoona, hitting for a .242/.320/.374 line in the second half of the 2011 season. Last year he showed improvements with a .285/.352/.480 line in 396 at-bats. He didn’t carry the strong K/BB ratio over, with a 9.8% walk rate and a 29.7% strikeout rate. He carried the strikeout problems over to the 2013 season, with a 33.3% strikeout rate in 105 at-bats before getting injured. Bryce Brentz (2011) Bryce Brentz was playing for the Boston Red Sox in 2011 in the South Atlantic League. He also got off to a hot start like Curry, hitting for a .359/.414/.647 line in 186 plate appearances, along with 11 homers. His K/BB ratio wasn’t bad, with a 20.6% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% walk rate. He spent the second half of the 2011 season in high-A, hitting for a .274/.336/.531 line in 321 plate appearances. In 2012 Brentz moved up to Double-A. There he hit for a .296/.355/.478 line, which was similar to Curry’s result. He also had 17 homers in 504 plate appearances. His strikeout rate took a dip, dropping to 28.5%, while his walk rate stayed about the same at 7.9%. J.D. Martinez (2010) In 2010 J.D. Martinez led the South Atlantic League with a .362/.433/.598 line and 15 homers in 393 plate appearances. That came with a 15.8% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate. He made the same jump to Double-A that Matt Curry made the following year, and saw his OPS drop to .765 the first year. In his second year at the Double-A level, Martinez hit for a .338/.414/.546 line in 370 plate appearances. He also was called up to the majors that year. He maintained the good K/BB rates, with a 17.4% strikeout rate and an 11.4% walk rate, showing some big improvements with the walks. So far in the majors he has combined for a .250/.308/.397 line in 754 plate appearances. The strikeouts have gone up to 24.2%, while the walks have dropped to 7.6%. Mike Zuanich (2009) You probably haven’t heard of Zuanich, and there’s a good reason. In 2009 he had a .362/.450/.616 line in

Liriano and Samardzija at seven. The Bucs' magic number for a playoff bye is down to three.

Jerry Sands has three homers in his last four games. A few weeks ago I wrote about how Jerry Sands was struggling all around, and how there were no silver linings to his game. He wasn’t hitting right-handers or left-handers. He wasn’t hitting for power. It wasn’t a home/road split, or a situation where you could point to the most recent games with hope that he was turning things around. Now? There are a few silver linings. In fact, there are outright positive signs. On the season, Sands has a really disappointing .186/.313/.307 line in 140 at-bats. That’s largely due to his month of April when he had a .145/.235/.171 line with just two extra base hits in 75 at-bats. He’s shown improvements in the month of May, leading to an .864 OPS in 64 at-bats. It started by hitting left-handers. Sands has always hit lefties well, and used that advantage to begin breaking out of his slump. On the season he now has a .233 average and an .825 OPS in 30 at-bats against lefties. That’s not a huge sample size, but considering his success against left-handers in the past, I wouldn’t doubt that it reflects his ability. The more encouraging sign recently has been that Sands is starting to hit right-handers. About a week ago he had a .416 OPS against right-handers. Now that’s up to a .560 OPS in 110 at-bats. Two things about that. One is that the number is still really low. Two is that we’re still early in the season where a few good games can cause a big jump. That’s pretty much what has happened with Sands. In his last two games, Sands has hit two homers, both coming off right-handers. He’s starting to show power all around, with six extra-base hits in his last six games, with most of those coming against right-handers. In his last ten games he’s hitting for a .294/.415/.706 line in 34 at-bats, with the high slugging percentage due to the recent power. The Pirates don’t have a huge need for an outfielder, since Travis Snider and Jose Tabata have both performed well at times this year. That said, they could use an outfielder who can hit left-handers. Snider and Tabata haven’t done a good job in that department, while Sands has been excellent in his career. If he continues his recent trends, especially against lefties, then Sands could emerge as a strong second half addition to the 25-man roster, hopefully setting up a platoon in the outfield that works just as well as the current first base platoon. Pirates Have Lefty Relief Depth The bullpen in the majors has been great as an overall unit this year. On an individual level, not every player has been good. Tony Watson came into the year as the top lefty in the bullpen, but has largely struggled. The emergence of Justin Wilson to take his place as the top lefty have over-shadowed Watson’s issues. In the last week Watson has only pitched once, when he threw two shutout innings against Houston last Thursday. Prior to that he had gone six straight appearances where he gave up a run, giving him runs in seven of his last eight appearances. Watson has been seen warming up in the bullpen, so he’s been available. But he’s hardly an option you can trust this year. The Indians have several left-handed pitchers who are performing well, giving them a few options to replace Watson if the struggles continue. Andy Oliver - He’s looking a lot like Justin Wilson, with a 2.87 ERA in 53.1 innings, thanks to 35 hits and 60 strikeouts in that span. The downside is that he has 39 walks. Oliver might be better in the rotation, at least until Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton are healthy. At this point if someone in the majors goes down, he’s the only option. Kris Johnson - He has a 3.80 ERA in 42.2 innings as a starter, with a 33:16 K/BB ratio. Johnson may be better out of the bullpen. He’s gone from being upper level depth to being a sleeper middle reliever in the last year, fueled by a strong performance

SOUTH HILLS COMMAND CENTER – Major League teams and parospect hounds have valued prospects more and more over the last two decades, particularly as the price of free agents have skyrocketed. Never has it been more imperative, especially for mid- and small-market teams. to build around cheap, productive, homegrown talent.   But have teams begun [...]

Pedro Alvarez. Pirates Game of Wins The Pittsburgh Pirates are winning. Winning ugly. Winning by a run. Winning with a walkoff-error. Walkoff bomb. Winning with a pinch-hit grand slam after a bases loaded walk. The Bucs are 27-18 and have won six of their last seven games. The Pirates have won eight of their last eleven. The ballclub is 26-13 in their last 39 games after four straight losses to get off to a shaky 1-5 start to the 2013 season. After 45 games a season ago, the Pirtaes were 21-24. The team was setting records for terrible offensive performances. The pitching was good enough, but this season the pitching has been stellar. In the month of May, the Pirates pitching staff have allowed the least amount of earned runs in all of baseball. With the names of Jeff Locke, Jeanmar Gomez, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, and Jason Grilli putting up numbers to match those of their leader A.J. Burnett who is striking out most everyone with a bat in their hand thus far in 2013. The staff has six shutouts already, the pitching staff had ten all of last season. Behind the plate, Russell Martin is throwing out runners at a Major League-leading clip. Martin has also been an on-base machine, working walks and sitting in the top five of OBP among his peers in the NL and his slugging is only topped by Willin Rosario who is using that powerful Colorado Rockie elevation to his advantage. Most of the things that haunted the Bucs in 2012 have been cleaned up.  It’s hard to imagine what the team will do when Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker get rolling consistently. But until then, the Bucs are… Just winning.

Game: Pirates (27-18) vs. Cubs (18-26) Time: 7:05 p.m.  Place: PNC Park TV/Radio: Root Sports; KDKA-FM 93.7 The Fan Weather:

Park on fire, Leach traded, Josh Gibson bomb, Ducky for Pagan, Pops has a day...1900 - Exposition Park was plagued by a series of fires set in the stands. The Pittsburg (sic) Press says that “It is believed the fires were started by persons who formerly held passes but whom the new management refuses to recognize,” referring to stockholders who were cut out of the action (and perks like free tickets) by new owner Barney Dreyfuss. 1912 - The Pirates sent veteran OF Tommy Leach and P Lefty Leifield to Chicago for UT Solly Hofman and P King Cole. Leach, 34, started the next two years for the Cubs and came back to retire as a Pirate in 1918. Lefty pitched five more seasons, going 57-25. Cole lasted one year in Pittsburgh, going 2-2/6.43; Hoffman played two years for the Pirates, getting into 45 games and hitting .246. 1946 - Josh Gibson hit a homer estimated to travel 490’ over the left center wall at Forbes Field to lead the Homestead Grays to victory over the New York Black Yankees. 1965 - The Pirates sent IF Dick Schofield to the Giants for IF Jose Pagan. Pagan spent seven years with Pittsburgh, hitting .263 and driving in the winning run in the seventh game of the 1971 World Series. Ducky played until 1971, but only batted above .221 twice during that span. 1968 - With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field‚ the Pirates came from four runs down to defeat the Cubs 13-6. Willie Stargell hit three home runs and just missed a fourth, drilling a double that bounced off the left field railing and back onto the playing field. Pops also smacked a single for 15 total bases and seven RBI on the day.