Pittsburgh Pirates

Cubs pitcher Matt Garza will be making his season debut tonight as the North Siders face the Pittsburgh Pirates. Catch all the action on Comcast SportsNet beginning at 6:00. View full post on Yahoo! Sports – MLB – Pittsburgh Pirates News

Jeff Locke says he has “gotten much better” over the last two years. Jeff Locke, let’s talk. Heh. Rhymes. Jeff, your pitching has played a role of significance in the Pirates’ 26-18 start and a spot in the playoffs if Bud Selig took ether and ended the season on May 21. You have pitched five quality starts in your last six outings in the last month, allowing an average of fewer than four hits per start. Combine those with your earlier starts, and you find yourself 11th of 59 qualified NL pitchers with a 2.73 earned run average. I’m not being tongue-in-cheek when I say you should be proud. It just won’t last. Nothing personal, Jeff. You are still 25 years old and have a long career ahead, hopefully in Pittsburgh’s rotation instead of some other team’s. You were great in Triple-A last year, and you have definitely earned the spot in the rotation you were so happy to get at the start of the year. If you continue to pitch well, there is no reason you can’t keep that spot when guys like Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton are ready to join the team. But your performance won’t continue to match the performance of the NL’s best pitchers. You just won’t keep your ERA below the ERA of guys like Stephen Strasburg, Cliff Lee and Madison Bumgarner. That doesn’t mean you won’t continue to pitch well, but the run-prevention numbers will start to go north. Here’s why, and remember the words “regression to the mean” – 1. You can’t maintain such a low ERA with such a high FIP. No one can. Let’s start with the basics, Jeff. Your FIP this season is 4.47 compared to your 2.73 ERA. We know that FIP is a better predictor than ERA of future run-prevention ability. Look at it this way, the five pitchers since 2000 with the lowest ERA compared to FIP over a full season: Ryan Franklin, Mariners (2003): 3.57 ERA, 5.17 FIP (1.61 difference) Elmer Dessens, Reds (2002): 3.03 ERA, 4.61 FIP (1.58 difference) Al Leiter, Mets (2004): 3.21 ERA, 4.76 FIP (1.55 difference) Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (2012): 3.10 ERA, 4.60 FIP (1.50 difference) Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (2011): 2.95 ERA, 4.44 FIP (1.49 difference) Out of the 1,132 pitcher seasons since 2000, not one starter has maintained your 1.74 difference in ERA and FIP over the whole year. Jeff, that alone should be an indicator that your ERA won’t stay this low. Let’s look at Hellickson, who shows up twice there. In his brief career, the Tampa Bay starter has been a true outlier in outperforming his defense-independent numbers and flouting BABIP-based regression. Why? R.J. Anderson says it has been “some combination of weak contact, defense, infield flies, and park.” It all checks out. Hellickson those a crapload of changeups that induce weak contact, pitches in front of a good Rays defense, draws plenty of pop-ups and plays about half his games in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Despite all that jazz, Hellickson still can’t keep an ERA more than a run and a half below his FIP. And sorry Jeff, but you’re no Jeremy Hellickson. Locke’s Response: “I don’t understand what all those things mean anyway, because the people that made them up didn’t play. I just know that if you attack and be aggressive and do what you can do every outing… yeah, maybe the hit totals have been down, but the walks have been up a little bit. It all evens out somewhere. A baserunner’s a baserunner, no matter how they got there. I don’t worry about anything like that.” 2. Your BABIP won’t be that low, even with the Pirates’ great defense. This season, the Pirates replaced their players’ gloves with high-powered vacuums. Given there was no rule expressly forbidding vacuums, and the fruitful endorsement deal with Hoover, the Bucs have turned an MLB-best 71.6 percent of balls in play into outs. But bad news, Jeff. Bud Selig fou

OK, we all know what an Earned Run Average (ERA) is; the number of earned runs given up per nine innings, determined by a formula so simple we're surprised the nuns didn't use to teach math - earned runs/innings pitched X nine. It's what sabermetric statheads like to call a "counting number," that is just a raw, unweighted figure that's subject to a jillion variables - the league, the park, starting v relieving, the defense behind a pitcher, teams faced, yada yada. Most baseball fans accept it for what it is, and use it simply to determine how effective a guy has been on the mound at a given point of the season. But all those outside factors gave a rash to the computer kids' sensibilities; they hate numeric chaos, even if it is organized. So they went to work on developing a better indicator. All sorts of different numbers were being churned out of databases, with different emphasis on different aspects of the game.The simplest and most popular was an average that measured the two-man game between the pitcher and hitter. It used the three true outcomes of baseball lore - homers, walks (+ hit batters - intentional walks), & strikeouts - and eliminated the fielding factor entirely, assuming that everyone was pitching in front of a league average defense in a league average park. It became known as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).The results were weighed in that order - HR, BB/HBP, K - and produced an ERA-like number that the boys in the basement believed not only better represented a pitcher's current performance, but was a strong indicator of future performance as well. Its formula is also fairly straightforward: 13HR+3BB-2K/IP+ 3.2 (a constant to make it an ERA-compatible number) =FIP. You're sorry you slept through that junior high algebra class about now, aren't you?In some hurlers' cases, it was fairly close to ERA; in others, it indicated that regression, up or down, was in the cards. And hey, it gave agents and GMs another number to throw out at contract time. But guess what? That home run variable bothered them; it reeked of randomness, just like regular balls in play. And viola - Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) was born.It replaced the home runs, which fluctuate year-to-year, with a number calculated by taking the pitcher's fly ball rate times the league average % of homers per fly ball. So now we have a number that doesn't represent actual hits, homers, defense, park factors...well, that didn't sit well, either. Yep, another stat was on its way.This one is Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA). We'll not share its formula because unless you're related to Einstein, it's pretty dang complicated. SIERA's co-efficients have co-efficients. But it measures a lot of stuff - strikeouts, walks, types of contact, situational results and consists of a whole lot of hardball number crunching; it's one thorough system. It's the only one of the three that actually factors in balls in play.In a nutshell, ERA is what it is. FIP is based on the three true outcomes that a pitcher controls; the other variables are reduced to league average. xFIP swaps out HR for a number based on fly ball rate of a pitcher v league average fly ball rate for HR, and SIERA is a comprehensive calculation that considers and weighs the variblees of just not the three true outcomes but balls in play by park and situation.What's it mean? Well, FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all predictive, so they have use that way; SIERA does the best job of matching what is with what should be. But we're kinda old school; we like counting numbers because they're real and now, and use the rest of the stuff as a guidepost to what to expect down the road. If you're curious, here's a couple of Pirate pitchers with their various lines; you can see that in some cases, the numbers are pretty similar, and in a couple, doom and despair are around the corner. We'll see....nobrtable br { display: none } tr {text-align: center;} tr.alt td {background-color: #eeeecc; color: black;} tr {

A question I get a lot these days is “why isn’t Stetson Allie in your top 20?” The answer is that we don’t update the top 20 until after the MLB draft. The rankings that we display on the Prospect Watch each night are the pre-season rankings. There have been a few changes. Stolmy Pimentel was added when Justin Wilson made the majors at the start of the year. Pimentel wasn’t in the system when we compiled our original top 50 in the Prospect Guide. Jordy Mercer has also been moved up one spot to number 20 now that it looks like Bryan Morris is in the majors to stay. I’m holding off on removing Mercer until we see what happens when John McDonald or Chase d’Arnaud return. Of course, Mercer is only 27 at-bats away from losing prospect status. Either way, Gift Ngoepe would be next. That’s not an exciting player to follow for his offensive stat line. Ngoepe was there primarily for his defense and speed, and will probably drop during the mid-season rankings. The question about Allie is something I’ve given a lot of thought to. We update the rankings a few times per year. There’s the rankings for the book, the rankings after the draft, and an update after the trade deadline. Since the post-draft rankings are coming up, there have been a lot of questions I’ve been asking to prepare for the new list. The obvious question is “where do the new picks rank?” The Stetson Allie question is definitely included. Here are some of the others. Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon? Probably the biggest debate for anyone will be the debate between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon for the top spot. Cole is having trouble this year, while Taillon has been performing well. I try to avoid placing too much of a focus on in-season results, since it’s easy to place too much emphasis on the most recent starts, rather than the tools, the potential upside, and other important factors. One important factor is that Cole is in Triple-A, and Taillon is in Double-A. So it would seem unfair  to compare their results this year. That said, I’ve had Taillon closer to Cole than a lot of people. So the gap before this season wasn’t that big for me, meaning it’s not like Taillon has to improve considerably to take the top spot. Is Gregory Polanco the top prospect in the system? But What About Gregory Polanco? I try to start from scratch when I’m setting up my own rankings. So I don’t start with Cole and Taillon at the top. I usually try to divide everyone up into tiers, then go through the “splitting hairs” process to give actual numbers. At this point I would say that Polanco is definitely in that top tier with Cole and Taillon. I talked to a scout a few weeks ago who mentioned that every time he sees Polanco he improves something about his game. That’s pretty much been the case. There’s not a lot to dislike. He hits for average, power, hits to all fields, doesn’t strike out a lot, and draws a lot of walks. He’s got speed on the bases and a lot of range in center field. The things he’s got to work on are more about experience, and less about his skills. To give an idea of Polanco’s potential, Ben Badler was asked who had more upside between Polanco or Starling Marte. He answered Polanco. Polanco RT @zasman more upside: Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco? — Ben Badler (@BenBadler) May 19, 2013 We’ve gotten a glimpse of what Marte is capable of this year. If Polanco has that kind of upside, and I can’t really argue against it, then it’s hard to not consider him for the top spot in the system. Travis Sawchik of the Trib seems to have immediately become a Polanco fan, getting a Dave Parker comparison from one scout, and another scout saying Polanco has more power potential than Oscar Taveras. Two more strong cases for Polanco. Does Alen Hanson Drop? I wrote about Alen Hanson today, noting that his d

For Altoona today, Charlie Morton makes his sixth rehab start, trying to work his way back to the majors from Tommy John Surgery last June. Indianapolis has an early afternoon game today. The Pirates two Dominican Summer League affiliates begin their schedules on June 1st. The team referred to as Pirates1, won the DSL title last year. For a look at the possible starters over the next few weeks, please check out our Probable Pitchers Chart. We have added a Recent Transactions section to the bottom of this page, for all Pirates minor league transactions. A full recap of yesterday’s action can be found here. Orlando Castro has four walks and 40 strikeouts this year AAA: Indianapolis (32-14) @ Pawtucket (26-19) 12:05pm Probable starter: Andy Oliver (3-1, 2.61) Yesterday’s Result: Indianapolis 8, Pawtucket 4 Andy Oliver will get his tenth start of the season tonight. He has been hard to hit this year, but has also displayed poor command, especially recently. He does have some impressive stats, including a .185 BAA and a 1.12 GO/AO ratio, with 54 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. The bad news is 35 walks, with two games in a row in which he has walked six batters. Oliver is third in the International League in strikeouts and has a healthy lead in base on balls, a stat which he led the IL in last season and finished second in during the 2011 season. He is 2-0, 2.76 in three road games, striking out 23 batters in 16.1 innings. AA: Altoona (19-24) @ Reading (16-26) 6:35pm Probable starter: Charlie Morton (1-0, 1.93) Yesterday’s Result: Reading 6, Altoona 3 Charlie Morton will make his fourth rehab start for Altoona tonight. He has also made starts for Bradenton and Indianapolis. At Altoona, he has pitched a total of 14 innings, giving up just six hits and four walks. In his last outing, he went four innings, allowing two runs on two hits, both solo homers. He threw 61 pitches on the night, 40 went for strikes. In 20 total innings this year, Morton has a .132 BAA, 1.72 GO/AO ratio and 11 strikeouts. High-A: Bradenton (17-27) vs Tampa (18-24) 6:30pm Probable starter: Robby Rowland (2-2, 4.54) Yesterday’s Result: Tampa 2, Bradenton 1 Robby Rowland will get his ninth start of the year tonight. He has thrown a total of 39.2 innings, giving up 41 hits, four homers and ten walks. He has 22 strikeouts, a 1.43 GO/AO ratio and a .268 BAA. At home, Rowland is 0-1, 4.22 in two starts. He has a huge split against LH and RH batters, holding righties to a .198 average, while lefties are hitting .371 with three homers. In his last four starts combined, Rowland has picked up just seven strikeouts. Low-A: West Virginia (22-22) @ Kannapolis (15-25) 7:05pm Probable starter: Orlando Castro (3-3, 2.22) Yesterday’s Result:  West Virginia 11, Kannapolis 2 Orlando Castro will make his ninth start of the season tonight. He has displayed excellent control this year while putting up strong strikeout totals. In 44.2 innings, Castro has allowed 38 hits, four homers, four walks and he has 40 strikeouts. His last start was his worst of the season, giving up four runs in 4.2 innings. He walked two batters and served up two homers, doubling his season total in both categories. Castro has made five starts on the road already, going 2-1, 2.30 in 27.1 innings. Recent Transactions 5/20 Alex Dickerson placed on DL. Justin Howard added to Altoona roster. 5/19 Chase d’Arnaud assigned to Altoona roster. 5/18 Jeff Karstens added to Altoona roster. 5/16 Clay Holmes activated from DL. Josh Smith assigned to Jamestown roster. 5/16 Chase d’Arnaud assigned to Bradenton on rehab. 5/16 Cesar Lopez sent to Extended Spring Training. Kurt Yacko assigned to Bradenton roster

TOP OF THE SYSTEM A look at how the current top 20 prospects did today.  Note that this list doesn’t include players currently in the majors. If a player is in the majors, he will be removed, everyone below him will be shifted up a spot, and a new player will be added to the bottom of the list. Rankings are from the pre-season rankings, and links to each prospect writeup can be found by clicking the player names below. Players who weren’t in the original top 20 are linked to their player page on the site. 1. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Indianapolis (3-2, 3.75) - DNP 2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Altoona (2-5, 3.02) - DNP 3. Gregory Polanco, CF, Bradenton (.303) - 1-for-4, 2 K 4. Alen Hanson, SS, Bradenton (.272) - 2-for-4, 2B 5. Luis Heredia, RHP, Extended Spring Training (Luis Heredia Close to Joining West Virginia) 6. Josh Bell, RF, West Virginia (.283) - 2-for-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI 7. Barrett Barnes, CF, West Virginia (.220) - Low-A DL 8. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, West Virginia (3-0, 2.12) - DNP 9. Kyle McPherson, RHP, Indianapolis (0-1, 19.29) – Triple-A DL 10. Nick Kingham, RHP, Bradenton (5-2, 3.42) - DNP 11. Clay Holmes, RHP, West Virginia (1-3, 5.50) - DNP 12. Dilson Herrera, 2B, West Virginia (.295) - 1-for-4, BB 13. Tony Sanchez, C, Indianapolis (.296) – DNP 14. Wyatt Mathisen, C, West Virginia (.189) – 0-for-3 15. Adrian Sampson, RHP, Bradenton (1-1, 6.94) - DNP 16. Vic Black, RHP, Indianapolis (0-2, 2.66) – DNP 17. Andy Oliver, LHP, Indianapolis (3-1, 2.61) – DNP 18. Jin-De Jhang, C, Extended Spring Training 19. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Altoona (2-2, 3.35) - 7.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR 20. Jordy Mercer, SS, Indianapolis (.333) - In Majors ORDER YOUR 2013 PROSPECT GUIDE The 2013 Prospect Guide is now available, and is the perfect resource to follow the minor league system during the 2013 season. You can order your copy on the products page of the site. Order together with the 2013 Annual and save $5! DAILY SUMMARY Top Pitcher: Joely Rodriguez, LHP (3-3, 2.76) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HR Top Hitter: Jared Goedert, 3B (.237) – 3-for-4, HR, BB Home Runs: Jared Goedert (4), Jerry Sands (2), Jarek Cunningham (7), Adalberto Santos (2), Walker Gourley (2) AAA: INDIANAPOLIS INDIANS   Box Score Result: Indianapolis 8, Pawtucket 4 Starting Pitcher: Brooks Brown, RHP (3-0, 3.72) – 6.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR Top Hitter: Jared Goedert, 3B (.237) – 3-for-4, HR, BB Other Notable Performers: Alex Presley, CF (.288) – 2-for-4, 2B, BB Jerry Sands, RF (.170) – 1-for-4, HR, 4 RBI, BB Game Notes: Jerry Sands got the Indians off to a great start with a grand slam in the first inning, leading to a five run inning. Jared Goedert later added some insurance with a solo homer in the sixth, and had three hits on the day. Indianapolis was facing a right-hander, and Sands and Goedert have done better against lefties this year, so the homers were good to see. Brooks Brown made his fifth start of the year. He has a 4.56 ERA in 23.2 innings, with a 14:6 K/BB ratio. This was the first time he went longer than five innings, and the second time he went longer than four innings. AA: ALTOONA CURVE   Box Score Result: Reading 6, Altoona 3 Starting Pitcher: Stolmy Pimentel, RHP (2-2, 3.35) – 7.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR Top Hitter: Adalberto Santos, 3B (.276) – 2-for-4, HR Other Notable Performers: Jarek Cunningham, 2B (.211) – 1-for-4, HR Mel Rojas, CF (.225) – 1-for-3, 3B Game Notes: Stolmy Pimentel gave up three runs in the first inning in large part to a two run homer. He gave up two more runs in the fifth inning on another two run homer. In his last three starts, Pimentel has given up 17 earned runs in 17.1 innings. That’s after giving up just three earned runs in his first 36.1 innings this season. Adalberto Santos hit his second home run of the year. Jarek Cunningham hit his seventh homer of the year. A+: BRADEN

ATLANTA (AP) — Julio Teheran pitched 8 1-3 strong innings, Dan Uggla hit a three-run homer and the Atlanta Braves won their fourth straight game with a 5-1 victory over the struggling Minnesota Twins on Monday. View full post on Yahoo! Sports – MLB – Pittsburgh Pirates News

Monday's roundup: -- Jerry Sands hit a 1st inning grand slam, his second HR on the year, and Indianapolis went on to beat Pawtucket, 8-4. Jared Goedert added his fourth HR and went 3-4. Alex Presley, Josh Harrison and Felix Pie all had two hits. Brooks Brown gave up three runs over six and two-thirds. He allowed eight hits and didn't walk or strike out a batter. Old friend Brock Holt had three hits. -- Stolmy Pimentel continued to struggle as Altoona dropped a 6-3 decision to Reading. Pimentel allowed five runs on eight hits, including two HRs. It wasn't all bad, though, as he lasted seven innings and threw strikes, 76 of them in 103 pitches. He walked one and fanned five. Jarek Cunningham and Adalberto Santos hit HRs, Cunningham's seventh and Santos' second. Santos went 2-4. -- Bradenton lost to Tampa, 2-1. The Marauders had only six hits. Alen Hanson went 2-4 with a double and Gregory Polanco 1-4 with two strikeouts. Willy Garcia fanned all four times up. Hard-luck starter Eliecer Navarro dropped to 0-8 despite allowing only the two runs on four hits and a walk in six innings. He fanned six. Zac Fuesser followed with three scoreless innings. -- West Virginia hammered Kannapolis, 13-2. Joely Rodriguez threw six shutout innings, allowing six hits and one walk with three strikeouts. Bryton Trepagnier gave up the two runs, one earned, over three innings, which got him a save. Stetson Allie went 3-4 with a double, a walk and three RBIs. Walker Gourley hit his second HR, Max Moroff went 3-5 with a double, and Josh Bell went 2-4 with a double and a walk. Dilson Herrera went 1-4 with a walk.

Over at Minor League Ball, John Sickels has released version two of his mock draft. He has many of the same players listed in the top 15-20 as everyone else recently, though he has a new name attached to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Sickels has Georgia HS outfielder Clint Frazier going to the Pirates with the ninth overall pick. Frazier has been in the top six for almost all of the season, a few times being named in the top spot overall. In the 14th spot, Sickels has the Pirates taking Indiana State LHP, Sean Manaea. Like Frazier, Manaea has been at or near the top of this draft class all season long. Both players have recently fallen and for Frazier it is more of a sudden drop. Manaea has had problems all season, cold weather, a 15 day period in between starts due to weather, a sprained ankle, an injured hip and most recently, a slight drop in velocity. His numbers for the season, despite all of those problems, have not been bad. He is 5-4, 1.47 in 12 starts, with 93 walks and a .190 BAA in 73.1 innings. Frazier is an interesting case. He has potential to be a middle of the order hitter, with 35-40 homers. He’s very athletic, plays center field and has a great arm. This season, Frazier batted .485 in 114 plate appearances, with 17 homers and a 1.695 OPS. If he somehow drops to the Pirates with the ninth pick, he certainly seems like a no-brainer. Between the two Pirates picks, from 10-13, Sickels has Trey Ball, Dominic Smith, Reese McGuire and Ian Clarkin. Both Ball and McGuire have been linked to the Pirates numerous times and would be good picks at #9 if Frazier didn’t happen to fall. All four are very interesting names. Right after Manaea, Sickels has DJ Peterson and JP Crawford. Peterson has also been linked to the Pirates twice recently. While he doesn’t have the appeal of a left-handed starter with great size and a nice track record like Manaea, Crawford might be a more appealing pick at the #14 spot. A HS shortstop, who can stick at the position, plus hit well and add speed at the top of a lineup, might be more tempting than a pitcher who has experienced velocity problems and injury woes this year.

I will have a chat today at 1 p.m. Scroll over the "Chats" link at the top of the page and click on "Bill Brink." ********** INDIANAP ...