Portland Trail Blazers

Six franchises represent models for the Blazers to aspire to in upgrading its roster for the 2013/14 season: the four semifinalists (Miami, Indiana, Memphis, San Antonio), Oklahoma City and LAC. OKC gets a mention because without the injury to Westbrook, it could just as well be OKC in the West finals instead of Memphis. The Clippers were a productive team - rating higher than Memphis in net production. I included them in this analysis before they were knocked out - and I don't want to redo the data. Obviously, Miami and OKC are not models that can be duplicated by Portland. Each team has two stars that transcend the brightest star on Portland's team, so the question is really whether Portland can achieve success via the Indiana or Memphis model. I don't believe San Antonio is a good model because their roster and system is too unique. I didn't spend any real time looking at the LAC. The first step (Part 1) in the comparison analysis is to examine rosters using 82games.com's Net Production tables. Net Production is merely PER of the team's player vs. opponent PER (same position; on court). Part 2, coming later, will look at Basketballreference.com's Lineups - which display comprehensive stats for 5-,4-,3- and 2-man combinations for every team. This second approach emphasizes the most important statistic of all - the ability to outscore the opponent, although it does present very interesting tidbits - such as the fact that the Blazers had a better team TRB% with Aldridge than they did with Hickson. Remember Golliver's "empty rebounds" remarks? There's some merit to that. Ultimately, the Blazers are very unlikely to add a star (Chris Paul or Dwight Howard) that could elevate them into Miami or OKC status. More likely, they need to upgrade as many positions as effectively possible, including positions 6-10 on the bench. The potential for the Blazers to improve dramatically simply by fielding a competent bench is extremely high. Not high enough to contend for a championship - but probably high enough to make the playoffs. So - the data will show that upgrading Hickson and Matthews are the two priorities. Part 1 - Net Production Analysis (Net PER) This is the more superficial of the two approaches - but still illuminating. Making personnel decisions on this factor alone would not be appropriate. It does start to give us an idea of where the Blazers are weak, relative to playoff teams. Method I imported 82games.com regular season Net Production data into Excel for each of the sixteen playoff teams, plus Portland. I then graphed team net production and "Top 5" net production. I used Top 5 vs. nominal starters to give teams that relied heavily on a sixth man proper credit for contributions. I tried to use playing time as the governing criteria - but in some cases (such as Boston), I used an injured player's numbers in the Top 5 - even if the minutes played were less than the replacement's. However, in all cases, I prorated Net Production by using playing time % as a coefficient (playing time presented by 82games.com as a percentage of team's total minutes). This gives a result similar to Value Added (ESPN/Hollinger), which correlates PER to actual playing time. Results As expected, the better teams had higher net production overall, but graphing starter net production exposed stark differences in how teams accomplish the basic task of outperforming opponents. Denver, of all the playoff teams, had by far the deepest rotation - with the bench contributing nearly as much to wins as the starters. Miami, not surprisingly, had the largest difference between starters and bench players among playoff teams. A significant part of that difference is James who represents an extreme outlier in terms of net production. However, OKC also has an extreme outlier (Durant) - but a stronger bench - and therefore an overall superior team net production. Also as expected, Portland's bench was a complete disaster. Po

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint Rudy Gobert 84.5 86 238 4.4% 9.75 10 93.25 115 140 144 25 29 12.85 3.57 Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected Rudy Gobert -16 -1.20% 2.84 4.95 -2.29 0.02 -0.52 Rudy Gobert weighs 16 pounds less than average, and his body fat is 1.2% lower than the average. His reach and wingspan are very long, his wingspan is nearly 5 inches longer than average. He is a poor leaper, and not very agile, with average speed. He is thus very long, but but below average athletically. Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Rudy Gobert at age 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements. Rudy Gobert Age 20 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Jim McIlvaine 19 Big East 92.4% Jim McIlvaine 18 Big East 93.5% Cherokee Parks 20 Atlantic Coast 93.8% Dikembe Mutombo 22 Big East 92.0% Matt Geiger 22 Atlantic Coast 93.0% Luke Schenscher 21 Atlantic Coast 94.3% Eric Riley 22 Big Ten 93.7% Jim McIlvaine 20 Big East 90.4% Primoz Brezec 21 Euro 95.0% Mikki Moore 20 Big Ten 94.6% Jake Voskuhl 22 Big East 94.3% Brad Daugherty 18 Atlantic Coast 93.1% Travis Knight 20 Big East 91.3% Patrick Ewing (Sr) 19 Big East 91.2% Jason Collins 20 Pacific 12 93.9% Jonas Valanciunas 19 Euro Cup 92.5% Semih Erden 21 Euro 92.0% Nikola Pekovic 20 Adriatic 92.3% Earl Barron 20 Conference USA 91.2% Duane Causwell 20 Atlantic 10 89.8% Rudy Gobert Age 19 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Dikembe Mutombo 22 Big East 95.2% Will Perdue 20 Southeastern 92.8% Eric Riley 19 Big Ten 93.4% Eric Riley 22 Big Ten 93.2% Larry Sanders 19 Atlantic 10 91.2% Jim McIlvaine 18 Big East 90.2% Roy Rogers 21 Southeastern 93.3% Francisco Elson 22 Pacific 12 92.4% Roy Rogers 20 Southeastern 92.8% Michael Olowokandi 20 Big West 92.5% Loren Woods 18 Atlantic Coast 90.5% Duane Causwell 19 Atlantic 10 90.8% Eric Riley 21 Big Ten 91.3% Cole Aldrich 19 Big-12 92.5% DeAndre Jordan 19 Southeastern 91.8% Roy Rogers 19 Southeastern 92.3% Luke Schenscher 20 Atlantic Coast 92.6% Travis Knight 19 Big East 91.1% Marc Gasol 19 ACB 93.7% Cherokee Parks 19 Atlantic Coast 92.0% Very Best Case Comps Dikembe Mutumbo, Brad Daugherty, Patrick Ewing 10% Likely Best Case Matt Geiger, Marc Gasol, Larry Sanders 10% Most Likely Loren Woods, Duane Causwell, Jim McIlvaine, Will Purdue, DeAndre Jordan 38% Likely Worst Case Roy Rogers, Michael Olowokandi, Eric Riley, Jason Collins 35% Absolute Worst Case Luke Schenscher 8% Rudy Gobert has some very impressive best case comps. Mutumbo, Daugherty, and Ewing were regular all stars. Geiger, Gasol and Sanders are all very good NBA big men, who really don't get much press. That group though is only 20% of his comps. The list of likely and likely worst case is a very large list (nearly 3/4's of his comps), and frankly this group is a very large group of very pedestrian or worse big guys, not at all a particularly impressive group. At the bottom end is Luke Schenscher, and that's it. In short Gobert has a tremendous upside, but frankly the odds are

Amnesty- lets talk about it... Something nobody has talked about much on here- which players are possibly getting amnestied this season? Well, first we must look at the players that are eligible. Now this does not mean these player WILL BE amnestied, it just means they are ELIGIBLE for it. But, it gives us a good list to work with. There are a TON of interesting names on this list, some of which WILL BE amnestied. I was put on this train of thought when I saw a Kevin Pelton ESPN tweet regarding this very subject. Heres the link to the eligible players: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/amnesty_eligible So who on this list do you think will get amnestied and who do you think we might want to bid on? For example, Dallas picked up Elton Brand on a bid of $2.1 million! Thats what im talking about! We need talent we can get as cheap as we can possibly get it. Bidding can land us some talent for cheap. It all depends on who becomes available, who we bid on, and how much we risk bidding. This could be a good way to add talent to our roster, especially for the bench. 1, 2, 3---GO! Amnesty- lets talk about it... Something nobody has talked about much on here- which players are possibly getting amnestied this season? Well, first we must look at the players that are eligible. Now this does not mean these player WILL BE amnestied, it just means they are ELIGIBLE for it. But, it gives us a good list to work with. There are a TON of interesting names on this list, some of which WILL BE amnestied. I was put on this train of thought when I saw a Kevin Pelton ESPN tweet regarding this very subject. Heres the link to the eligible players: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/amnesty_eligible So who on this list do you think will get amnestied and who do you think we might want to bid on? For example, Dallas picked up Elton Brand on a bid of $2.1 million! Thats what im talking about! We need talent we can get as cheap as we can possibly get it. Bidding can land us some talent for cheap. It all depends on who becomes available, who we bid on, and how much we risk bidding. This could be a good way to add talent to our roster, especially for the bench. 1, 2, 3---GO!

Ed. Note: Out of appreciation to ZiggyTheBeagle for all his hard work on these in-depth statistical comparisons, we're turning over the main page to his posts this weekend. Dig in and enjoy as much as we have! Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint Shabazz Muhammad 77 78.5 222 9.0% 9 10 84 105.25 134 142 29.5 37 10.99 3.32 Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected Shabazz Muhammad 14 0.80% 2.42 2.4 -0.66 0.04 0.45 For a player of Shabazz Muhammad's height he is 14 pounds heavy, with small amount of extra body fat. He would be described as long as both his reach and wingspan are about 2.4" longer than average. Athletically he is pretty average, his leaping ability and speed is about average, but his agility is actually pretty good. Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Shabazz Muhammad at age 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements. Shabazz Muhammad Freshman Season - age 20 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Bill Walker 20 Big-12 93.3% Quentin Richardson 18 Big East 92.7% Yakhouba Diawara 23 French 95.6% Doug Edwards 20 Atlantic Coast 91.6% Calbert Cheaney 20 Big Ten 94.4% Yakhouba Diawara 21 West Coast 93.6% Dave Johnson 20 Big East 94.0% Jim Jackson 19 Big Ten 91.1% Quentin Richardson 19 Big East 90.8% Casey Jacobsen 20 Pacific 12 92.2% Ron Mercer 20 Southeastern 93.0% Donny Marshall 22 Big East 93.9% Desmond Mason 21 Big-12 92.0% Chris Mills 21 Pacific 12 92.5% Yakhouba Diawara 22 West Coast 93.8% Alonzo Gee 20 Southeastern 93.7% Jumaine Jones 19 Southeastern 93.2% Alonzo Gee 21 Southeastern 94.4% Dion Glover 19 Atlantic Coast 92.5% Tremaine Fowlkes 18 Pacific 12 92.6% Very Best Case Comps 0% Likely Best Case Chris Mills 5% Most Likely Jim Jackson, Quentin Richardson, Alonzo Gee, Jumaine Jones 55% Likely Worst Case Yakhouba Diawara, Bill Walker, Tremaine Fowlkes 30% Absolute Worst Case Doug Edwards, Dave Johnson 10% The comparables analysis is quite revealing, and Muhammad grades out as a pretty mediocre prospect. His best case is Chris Mills, who had a solid 10 year career. Of all Muhammad's comps only Mills had a career WS/48 of at least 0.100, and that was 0.105. Jim Jackson, Quentin Richardson and Jumaine Jones were all below average NBA starters, with an average WS/48 of .070. The group below that of Diawara, Walker, Fowlkes, were all marginal lowish minute rotation players at best with short careers. Edwards and Johnson were washouts. Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player Season Shooting Statistics Totals FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG% Shabazz Muhammad 1 213 531 40.1% 184 437 42.1% 29 94 30.9% 97 133 72.9% 46.5% 42.8% Shabazz Muhammad 2 319 779 41.0% 262 625 41.9% 57 154 37.0% 146 182 80.2% 48.6% 44.6% Shabazz Muhammad 3 322 789 40.8% 267 627 42.6% 56 162 34.6% 150 194 77.3% 48.4% 44.4% 3 Year Average 293 718 40.7% 244 577 42.2% 49 141 34.5% 135 174 77.2% 48.0% 44.1% Season Accumulation Stats Totals ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS Shabazz Muhammad 1 76 105 178 73 44 14 66 1.11 120 552

Apr 2, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Baylor Bears player Pierre Jackson (55) reacts after making a basket against the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half of the NIT Tournament semifinal at Madison Square Garden. Baylor won the game 76-70. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports Until recently, Baylor guard, Pierre Jackson, was considered to be a 2nd round pick, but after performing well at the draft combine, he is now projected to go in the first round. Here’s what I find interesting; although his stock is on the rise, he is by no means a top 10 selection. The Blazers have the 10th pick in this year’s draft, so why are they looking at the 5’10” point guard? If we are to put stock in the Blazers’ interest, the workout would seem to indicate a desire to move down in the draft. This could actually make a lot of sense for Portland. A deal that involves trading the 10th pick for a mid-20s pick in exchange for another player would help the Blazers build a supporting cast. There aren’t any “must-own” prospects where the Blazers stand in the 2013 draft, so why not move down if it could bring an established player to Portland? I like to see the Blazers explore their options like this; preparing for multiple scenarios. Drafting Pierre Jackson would not only bring in another option at point guard, it would come at a relatively low price. There isn’t a whole lot of difference in skill level outside of the top 5 draftees this year, so Portland could essentially take a minor bump for a major boost, if indeed they are targeting a lower slot. Jackson isn’t too bad either. Imagine an inexperienced Nate Robinson, but a better facilitator that takes smarter shots. He’s an energy guy. Learning behind Damian Lillard, the future of the franchise, could give him a developmental head start too. I suppose the Blazers could be legitimately interested in drafting him at 10, but it seems unlikely to me. I think Olshey is up to something. Whether we trade down, trade up, or trade out, our first round pick is on the table. The Blazers’ curiosity has peaked mine. Is Pierre in Portland’s future, or is he joining the list of backup plans? @davidmackaypdx | @ripcityproject | davidmackaypdx@gmail.com

The Blazers most likely will not have a chance to draft at number 10 (or better) again for several years. As such I consider it crucial for the Blazer franchise to keep the #10 pick and use it to pick the best player available. The Blazers need to consider both short term and long term. Most teams build success through the draft. These days most players do not stay in college long enough to really learn the basics of basketball. Most rookies need years to learn the NBA game. Fans also need to be patient. Very few teams have instant success with new additions to the team. The process of developing an NBA player takes time, hard work and patience. There are very few magical players who instantly make a team a title contender. Obviously free agent signings can add valuable pieces to a team. But Portland is not a choice city that promises media exposure and off the court activities. So significant summer signings of stars would be very unexpected and unlikely. Thus it is probably best for Portland to look to the draft to get quality players. Portland at the beginning of last year had a very inexperienced bench. As we all remember, the starting five did an excellent job. But they wore out from playing 40 minutes per game. Then injuries crippled the last months of the season. So having a capable bench is essential to a winning team if they are to be fit and ready for the playoffs. I was encouraged by the progress some of the Blazer rookies showed toward the end of the season. Victor Claver (dob 8/30/88) showed promise to be a steady force off the bench either as a stretch 4 or SF. Meyers Leonard (2/27/92) began to show he will be a solid NBA player. He is only 21 years old! Joel Freeland had a more difficult rookie year but he is only 26 after he started playing basketball about age 16 (http://nbadraft.net/players/joel-freeland). Will Barton (1/06/91) really was coming on at the end of the year. His early injury slowed his development but he made the most of his opportunities when he finally got playing time. Elliot Williams (6/20/89) is a big unknown as injuries have severely hampered his playing time and career. Williams is really just a rookie set to start his first full year in the NBA this fall. The players likely to be replaced with free agent signings and draft picks: Pavlovic (11/15/83), Nolan Smith (7/25/88), Jeffries (7/25/81) and Luke Babbitt (6/20/89). And what happens with JJ Hickson? Is Eric Maynor really the answer at back up point guard? Portland probably will have at least 4 new faces on their roster next season. The draft keeps talent growing. It brings young players who will develop under the very good coaching and teaching of Terry Stotts and his staff. Portland needs help at backup big man positions – power forward and center. But immediate perceived needs should be secondary to drafting the best player left on the draft board. And hopefully Neil Olshey and the Blazers will not worry if their pick is rated #24 by Chad Ford of ESPN or Draft Express. I like what Toronto did last year in drafting Terrence Ross at number 8 when he was projected at 14 or later. We will have to wait to see if this works out for them but they had the courage to pick out of the confines of the mock drafts. Portland fans have been patient and I fully expect them to wait while this team develops. Signing free agents to fill out a solid bench is the basic need for this summer. Just two solid rotation players will make a huge difference. Starters will be able to rest and be fresh for the end of a game and more importantly, ready for the last games of the season and the playoffs. Portland also has 3 second round picks: 38, 39 and 45. There are several interesting prospects who could make an NBA team and become rotation players. Remember Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham were picked in the second round of the 2009 draft and both became rotation players. Cunningham is now with the Timberwolves and Pendergraph plays for Indiana. Will

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint Gorgui Dieng 82 83 230 5.4% 9 10 87.5 111.5 Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected Gorgui Dieng -6 -2.76% 2.9 1.63 Gorgui Dieng has limited physical measurables, but withose we have he is proportioned height to weight, and he would be described as long. His reach is 3" longer than average, and his wingspan is 1.63" longer than average. Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Gorgui Dieng at age 22 and 21. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements. Gorgui Dieng Junior Season - age 22 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Tony Battie 19 Big-12 95.1% Eric Mobley 22 Big East 94.4% Travis Knight 21 Big East 95.7% Rony Seikaly 20 Big East 94.0% Andrew DeClercq 20 Southeastern 94.1% Calvin Booth 19 Big Ten 93.4% Travis Knight 20 Big East 94.5% Derrick Coleman 19 Big East 95.4% Eric Mobley 23 Big East 92.4% Derrick Coleman 20 Big East 93.7% P.J. Brown 21 Western Athletic 92.8% Cherokee Parks 21 Atlantic Coast 92.4% Calvin Booth 21 Big Ten 91.5% Dean Garrett 20 Big Ten 94.1% Mikki Moore 20 Big Ten 93.2% P.J. Brown 22 Western Athletic 92.8% Rony Seikaly 21 Big East 90.9% Calvin Booth 22 Big Ten 91.1% Sean Williams 20 Atlantic Coast 92.6% Kenyon Martin 21 Big East 94.7% Gorgui Dieng Sophomore season age 21 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Tony Battie 19 Big-12 94.8% Mikki Moore 21 Big Ten 94.9% Rony Seikaly 20 Big East 93.1% Andrew DeClercq 20 Southeastern 94.9% Mark Blount 21 Big East 93.1% Mikki Moore 19 Big Ten 93.1% Calvin Booth 19 Big Ten 92.1% P.J. Brown 20 Western Athletic 93.8% Mikki Moore 20 Big Ten 92.6% Pete Chilcutt 21 Atlantic Coast 92.3% Calvin Booth 21 Big Ten 90.8% Eric Mobley 22 Big East 91.7% Derrick Coleman 19 Big East 92.9% Rony Seikaly 19 Big East 91.4% Calvin Booth 20 Big Ten 91.3% Andrew DeClercq 21 Southeastern 92.2% Dale Davis 18 Atlantic Coast 91.6% Sean Williams 20 Atlantic Coast 91.6% Cherokee Parks 21 Atlantic Coast 90.8% Travis Knight 20 Big East 92.6% Very Best Case Comps Derrick Coleman, Kenyon Martin 10% Likely Best Case Rony Seikaly, Dale Davis, PJ Brown 25% Most Likely Mikki Moore, Andrew DeClercq, Travis Knight 53% Likely Worst Case Cherokee Parks, Eric Mobley 13% Absolute Worst Case 0% There seems to be very low risk with Gorgui Dieng, as none of his comps would be considered wash outs. There is a small risk he could turn out to be Cherokee Parks, or Eric Mobley. At the same time the probability is low that he would turn out to be as productive as Derrick Coleman and Kenyon Martin. His likely best case, and most likely case is a long list of very solid, but generally unspectacular big men. Seikaly, Davis, and PJ Brown were all very solid NBA big men for a long time, who put together some very productive seasons. His most likely comps are generally league average big men with 7-8 year careers. One final point to make, with all players I have published so far, the target player and his comps were generally the same age, or the target

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 76.75 77.75 204 6.5% 8.5 9 80.25 100.5 130 135 29 34.5 10.6 3.12 Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -2 -0.22% -1.35 -0.57 0.19 0.21 0.74 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is well proportioned height to weight. He would not be described as long, as bioth his reach and wingspan grade out as below average. He is a good athlete, both quick and agile, and a little better than average as a leaper. Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at age 18 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Sophomore Season - age 19 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity James Anderson 19 Big-12 94.9% Klay Thompson 19 Pacific 12 93.6% Bradley Beal 18 Southeastern 94.5% Matt Carroll 22 Big East 95.1% Ray Allen 19 Big East 92.9% Wayne Ellington 20 Atlantic Coast 92.8% Keith Bogans 20 Southeastern 92.2% Klay Thompson 20 Pacific 12 92.9% Iman Shumpert 20 Atlantic Coast 92.3% Wesley Person 19 Southeastern 92.8% Allan Houston 20 Southeastern 92.9% Daequan Cook 19 Big Ten 89.2% Gordon Hayward 19 Atlantic 10 93.2% James Anderson 20 Big-12 92.9% Jeremy Lamb 19 Big East 94.0% Jordan Hamilton 20 Big-12 94.5% Bryant Stith 19 Atlantic Coast 91.7% Keith Bogans 22 Southeastern 93.0% Reece Gaines 21 Big East 93.0% Wesley Person 20 Southeastern 92.2% Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Freshman season age 18 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Keith Bogans 19 Southeastern 93.7% Daequan Cook 19 Big Ten 92.2% Keith Bogans 21 Southeastern 94.8% Klay Thompson 18 Pacific 12 93.3% James Anderson 18 Big-12 94.0% Terrence Williams 18 Big East 93.0% Xavier Henry 18 Big-12 94.7% Laron Profit 19 Atlantic Coast 93.5% Bradley Beal 18 Southeastern 93.0% Malcolm Lee 19 Pacific 12 91.6% Rodney Carney 19 Conference USA 94.9% Eddie Jones 20 Atlantic 10 95.6% Jrue Holiday 18 Pacific 12 90.4% Rodney Carney 18 Conference USA 93.5% Wesley Person 19 Southeastern 93.3% Kim English 21 Southeastern 93.2% Rodney Carney 20 Conference USA 94.5% Wayne Ellington 19 Atlantic Coast 92.6% Malcolm Lee 20 Pacific 12 91.9% Keith Bogans 20 Southeastern 92.2% Very Best Case Comps Ray Allen, Allen Houston 5% Likely Best Case Bradley Beal, Eddie Jones 10% Most Likely Wesley Person, Klay Thompson, Iman Shumpert, Gordon Hayward 73% Likely Worst Case James Anderson, Laron Profit 10% Absolute Worst Case Reece Gaines 3% Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a nice contrast to Victor Oladipo. He has a couple of really nice "very best case" comps in Ray Allen and Allen Houston, and some nice "likely best case" comps in Eddie Jones, and Bradley Beal. On the bottom end there a very low probability that he will be a bust (just 3%). His group of likely comps is large, with a large number of really solid pro's who could end up as "likely best case". I don't believe Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has the same upside as Victor Oladipo, but his bust rate will be much smaller, and in all likelyhood he will have a long and solid career

Ed: FanPost bumped to front page Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint Victor Oladipo 75.5 76.5 213 6.6% 8.75 9.25 81.5 100.5 133.5 142.75 33 42 10.69 3.25 Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected Victor Oladipo 11 -1.10% 0.29 1.98 3.74 -0.03 0.27 Victor Oladipo weighs 11 lbs more than "average", but his body fat % is below average, so the extra weight is muscle not fat. Oladipo is a long player, an excellent leaper, with average speed and good agility. As I noted in the Cody Zeller article, there is a strong postive correlation between length and defensive prowess. At the same time there is a clear negative correlation between length and shooting ability. At some point I will do a definitive study on this. With Oladipo, he has good length, but it is not extreme. So this supports that he is a good defender, but his length impedes his shooting some, but not excessively. What makes Oladipo a good defender is combination of good length and good athleticism, expressed as excellent leaping ability and very good agility. Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Victor Oladipo at age 19 and 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements. Victor Oladipo Junior season Age 20 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Charles O'Bannon 20 Pacific 12 94.1% Charles O'Bannon 21 Pacific 12 93.4% Ben Uzoh 19 Conference USA 92.4% Vince Carter 21 Atlantic Coast 93.7% Bradley Beal 18 Southeastern 91.6% Vince Carter 20 Atlantic Coast 93.7% David Noel 21 Atlantic Coast 93.0% Hassan Adams 19 Pacific 12 93.0% James Posey 21 Atlantic 10 94.3% Jud Buechler 20 Pacific 12 93.3% Wesley Matthews 20 Big East 91.8% Hassan Adams 20 Pacific 12 92.8% Landry Fields 19 Pacific 12 94.1% Wesley Johnson 22 Big East 93.1% Fred Hoiberg 19 Big-12 94.3% Charles O'Bannon 19 Pacific 12 92.6% Laron Profit 21 Atlantic Coast 93.4% Charles O'Bannon 18 Pacific 12 93.2% Jimmy Butler 20 Big East 91.9% James Posey 20 Atlantic 10 94.0% Victor Oladipo Sophomore season age 19 Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity Wesley Matthews 20 Big East 94.4% Alonzo Gee 19 Southeastern 93.5% Wesley Matthews 21 Big East 93.4% Toby Bailey 19 Pacific 12 92.8% Ben Uzoh 18 Conference USA 93.9% Wesley Matthews 19 Big East 94.9% Bradley Beal 18 Southeastern 95.1% Jeff Taylor 19 Southeastern 93.4% Ben Uzoh 19 Conference USA 90.7% Ben Uzoh 20 Conference USA 97.2% Greg Minor 20 Big East 93.7% Brandon Roy 19 Pacific 12 93.2% Charles O'Bannon 20 Pacific 12 95.4% Laron Profit 19 Atlantic Coast 91.4% Quincy Pondexter 19 Pacific 12 91.2% Anthony Peeler 19 Southeastern 94.8% Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 18 Southeastern 92.8% Jeff Taylor 20 Southeastern 89.0% Charles O'Bannon 18 Pacific 12 90.3% Jimmy King 20 Big Ten 94.3% Very Best Case Comps Vince Carter, Brandon Roy 8% Likely Best Case Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 10% Most Likely Wesley Matthews, Jimmy Butler, Anthony Peeler, James Posey 38% Likely Worst Case Laron Profit, Wesley Johnson 23% Absolute Worst Case Charles O'Bannon 23% Victor Oladipo has

One of the keys of most of the remaining NBA teams in the playoffs is great coaches. Poppovich and Hollins are both excellent and clearly Vogel was able to recover from Game 1 and motivate his team to a win in Miami in Game 2 so he has to be in the discussion. Spoelstra could be good, but until LeBron leaves or he coaches another team it is kind of hard to say. Regardless, 3 out of 4 coaches are quite good and many of the coaches that got their teams into the playoffs are excellent as well. So that begs the question is Stotts good enough? I'm not saying he is or isn't I'd like to see that hashed out below, but simply to get the cognitive juices flowing and play Devil's advocate I'm gonna say we need another coach and I have a CRAZY proposition just to get the ball rolling in this thread. If you are over 30 years of age...you may want to exit the thread now. Bill Laimbeer. Now I know he's GM and Head coach of the NY Liberty but he has repeatedly expressed his desire to be head coach in the NBA and I think he has the exact mindset I would like to see instilled in Portland. That is EXTREME mental toughness, competitiveness and a defense first attitude. As TD argued convincingly in this thread and as Indy proved tonight, Defense can get you past Superstar talent or at least make you competitive. Let's face it Poppovich isn't going anywhere probably until at least Duncan retires and maybe never. Phil is going to be hard to entice back into the NBA without a truly special roster if at all. Thibodeau is going to stay with Chicago for the foreseeable future and is IMO better as an assistant coach due to the fact that he is so insanely hard on his players that it will grind them down eventually. He would be better if tempered by a relaxing head coach like Phil or someone of that more laid back demeanor. The only other coach with a real proven track record at winning, who might be available is Stan Van Gundy and I have similar concerns about his style as I do with Thibodeau although I would be willing to give Stan a shot. So what say you Blazers fans do we bring in an Arch-enemy of old to forge our team into a defensive juggernaut or is Bill simply not cut out for the NBA and/or has a thing for women over 6'6"? If not Bill, then who would you go for that isn't locked up for awhile?