At the end of last week the Blazers announced Damian Lillard, the unanimous Rookie of the Year, would be representing the Blazers at the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery. That led me to remark:
Last time our ROY rep-ed Portland at the lottery w...
At the end of last week the Blazers announced Damian Lillard, the unanimous Rookie of the Year, would be representing the Blazers at the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery. That led me to remark:
Last time our ROY rep-ed Portland at the lottery we won it.Needless to say, I'm excited.
Obviously this is kind of thinking is post hoc ergo propter hoc, but it's whimsical. I had so much fun with the idea I created a Fanpost based on the premise that it is predetermined the Blazers will win the lottery, and wanted to know who you would pick number one overall. More than one person responded that the Blazers should trade down in the event they got the first overall pick. This surprised me for a few reasons, and those responses prompted me to continue my 2013 NBA Draft Primer series.
I want to start with talking about "weak" drafts versus "strong" drafts.The 2012 and 2013 drafts have been described as "weak" drafts, while at other pundits have noted they are "deep" drafts. Why the two, seemingly, opposite viewpoints? The answer lies in the quality vs. quantity evaluation. Every draft produces quality NBA players, whether they are drafted number one overall or 57 overall. Where the "weak" and "strong" designations come into play is in the quality of talent they produce. For instance, the 2003 draft is one of the strongest in years, having produced LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kris Kaman, Kirk Heinrich, Nick Collison, T.J. Ford, Luke Ridnour, David West, Boris Diaw, Kendrick Perkins, Steve Blake, Zaza Pachulia, Matt Bonner, Mo Williams, and Kyle Korver.
The reason it is considered one of the strongest drafts in recent memory is because of the four names at the top of the list. Sure, if you took the other 11 names and put them on a team you could probably make the playoffs (definitely in the Eastern Conference). Those 11 guys make it a "deep" draft, but the four headliners make it a "strong" draft.
Back to 2012 and 2013. The 2012 draft was deep with a lot of quality players, but none the caliber of, say, LeBron James. Anthony Davis was the best prospect and people said he could be the next Tim Duncan, but he wasn't a sure-fire franchise changer like LeBron. A lot of the players in the top 10 have the potential to make multiple All-Star teams, but only a few have a realistic shot. Your best bets, in order, are Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond, Bradley Beal and Harrison Barnes. Everyone else would take a lot of work, and would need to be lucky enough to be in a stable environment with the right system (cut to Thomas Robinson sadly nodding his head from the end of the Rockets' bench).
As for the 2013 draft, the same applies. However, there is no one of Anthony Davis' quality at the top. Of everyone in the draft, Ben McLemore from Kansas has the best chance to make multiple All-Star teams, followed by Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter, Alex Len, and Anthony Bennett. That's not to say that no one else will ever be an All-Star, their odds are just a little longer. The rest of the draft is filled out with good-but-not-great players with ceilings that range from "quality starter" to "good role player" to "out of the league in four years". Even though there is a lot of potential at the top of the draft, there are no sure-fire multiple time All-Stars.
When I did my just-for-fun poll of who would you take with the number one overall pick, I gave seven options. Think about that, seven. When was the last time we had no idea who was going first overall in April? Usually we know by January or March at the latest. The 2008 draft was the Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley draft. 2009 was Blake Griffin, 2010 was John Wall, 2011 was Kyrie Irving and last year it was Anthony Davis. All consensus first-overall picks. This year, seven players have a legitimate argument to go number one overall and no one can agree on who should go first. Obviously some have a better shot than others** but the point is that in this draft the player
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about 19 hours ago