With 21 combined games in the 2013 playoff data bag between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, it’s now time to look at what the data is saying as the Western Conference Finals approach Sunday.
Remember, this is all q...
With 21 combined games in the 2013 playoff data bag between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, it’s now time to look at what the data is saying as the Western Conference Finals approach Sunday.
Remember, this is all quantitative data and like the last series before the Spurs and Golden State Warriors, the numbers were predicting a sweep or five game series. However, when you look at qualitative evidence, you might or the Spurs might not have known Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were going to explode in games one and two. Quantitative data didn’t predict Harrison Barnes would be in the company of Tim Duncan and Magic Johnson in Game 5.
So here are the numbers on the eve of the Western Conference Finals. Look, analyze, and dissect them, but do not rely on them because as the Warriors proved, numbers will change once the ball is tipped.
Offense and Defense
Points Per Game – Spurs 102.8, Grizzlies 97.2
Points allowed – Spurs 93, Grizzlies 92.4
Offensive rating – Spurs 107, Grizzlies 104.4
Defensive rating – Spurs 96.2, Grizzlies 99.9
What stands out? Of the above numbers, the fact that the Grizzlies are allowing 92 points per game shows that the Spurs are about to play their toughest defensive foe of this postseason. Offensively, the Spurs seem to be Memphis’ biggest test of stopping a scoring team.
Field Goal Percentage – Spurs 46%, Grizzlies 43.3%
Opponent field goal percentage – Spurs 43.6%, Grizzlies 43.5%
3-Point shooting – Spurs 35.6%, Grizzlies 31%
Opponent 3-point percentage – Spurs 33.2%, Grizzlies 31.8%
3-point attempts – Spurs 20.2, Grizzlies 14.5
3-Pointers allowed – Spurs 19.6, Grizzlies 19.7
An interesting number here is that the Grizzlies allow 19.7 three pointers per game. Since the Spurs shoot around 20 per game then their 3-point shots should be there so long as they are moving the ball on the floor. Seeing that the Grizzlies hold teams to 32% shooting from 3-point range means that they contest looks out on the arc.
Free throw shooting – Spurs 75.8%, Grizzlies 76.7%
Rebounds – Spurs 43.8, Grizzlies 40.1
Offensive rebounding – Spurs 10.2, Grizzlies 10.2
Unlike 2011 where Memphis dominated the rebounding game, the Spurs are better equipped in their frontline and wing players to help crash the boards. Later on though, we’ll see why Zach Randolph will be a whole other area of concern when it comes to rebounding.
2nd Chance points – Spurs 11.8, Grizzlies 14.7 points
Huge stat right here for Memphis. They’re scoring nearly 15 points off second chance attempts which means they hustle for offensive boards and plays that are almost going out of bounds. The Spurs will have to match the intensity the Grizzlies bring each and every night.
Assists – Spurs 23, Grizzlies 19.5
Opponent assists – Spurs 19.1, Grizzlies 16.9
This stat could be one of the most decisive aspects of this series. Quantitatively the Grizzlies look like a team that doesn’t allow solid ball movement by opponents as they’re holding teams to 16.9 assists per game. However, qualitatively, it looked the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t have too much trouble penetrating and kicking out to open shooters or slashers.
Turnovers per game Spurs 11.1, Grizzlies 10.4
Opponent turnovers – Spurs 15.2, Grizzlies 14
Though both teams seem to take care of the ball pretty effectively, both defensives also force a few turnovers as well. The Spurs’ offensive firepower allows them to have the luxury of turning the ball over and then being able to score to make up those possessions, the Grizzlies however can’t afford turnovers as their offense doesn’t score at such a high rate.
Points off turnovers – Spurs 17.8, Grizzlies 16.2
Basically, any team that tur
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