Seattle Mariners

(Here is today's Mariners minor-league report). Endy Chavez, shown above celebrating his go-ahead, pinch-hit homer in the ninth inning, got to be a hero for about five minutes today, long enough for Tom Wilhelmsen to blow his first save of the season by giving up the tying run in the bottom of the ninth. And doing so in forehead-slapping fashion, dropping a throw from Justin Smoak (who had made a diving stop) while covering first for what would have been the game-ending out. Smoak then hit a homer in the 10th, and got to be a hero for about five more minutes, long enough for Charlie Furbush to not only blow the save, but the game, by giving up a three-run homer to Yan Gomes in the bottom of the 10th. Yeah, THE Yan Gomes. It's hard to imagine a more heartbreaking, agonizing series for the Mariners. In the first game on Friday, they fought back from a 3-1 deficit to tie the game on a two-run homer by Raul Ibanez in the sixth, only to have Lucas Luetge give up a three-run, walk-off homer to Jason Kipnis in the bottom of the 10th. On Saturday, they fought back from a 4-0 deficit to tie the game in the ninth on back-to-back, two-out homers from Ibanez and Smoak, only to give up the winning run in the bottom of the inning -- when Jesus Montero didn't keep his foot on home plate on what should have been a force out. On Sunday, they lost when their ace, Felix Hernandez, gave up six runs in five innings, and they managed just four hits. And then there was today's roller-coaster, in which they had it won twice, until they didn't. Throw in the first game of this roadtrip, when the Mariners couldn't hold a 3-0 lead against the Yankees with Hernandez on the mound -- that was the game he tweaked his back, and had to come out after six -- and it's been one body blow after another. You can't deny they've battled, but you also can't deny that the bullpen, and defense, have both been inadequate during this stretch. I'll let Geoff, who is in Cleveland, explain why Eric Wedge didn't send out Wilhelmsen for a second inning, which is the No. 1 second-guess from this game. I would have done so, I believe, but I understand the arguments against -- mainly, pitch count. Wilhelmsen had thrown 22 in the ninth. Add another 15, and you're getting close to 40, which is an awful lot for a short reliever. Wilhelmsen has worked two innings once this season (against Detroit on April 17), and had a peak pitch count of 34 way back on April 5, his second outing of the year. Since then, Wilhelmsen had not gone over 23 pitches; last year, he exceeded 30 just three times, with a high of 37 (before he became closer). Contrary to the belief of those adamantly ripping Wedge, there is no right or wrong answer to this one. The manager has to look at the big picture. Going back out for a second inning can be problematic for a guy who's not used to it -- Stephen Pryor landed on the disabled list after such an instance earlier this year. On the other hand, Wilhelmsen was rested (he hadn't pitched since Thursday) and has gone beyond one inning a few times since he became closer. But Furbush had pitched 3 2/3 innings in two appearances in this series without allowing a Cleveland baserunner, striking out five. Of course, he had blown a game in New York earlier on this road trip. Here's the best answer to this dilemma: Wilhelmsen should have caught Smoak's toss. The question now is whether the Mariners will use these tough losses as motivation, or if the cumulative effect will be a demoralizing one. I've seen it work both ways. The most recent stretch I can remember that equates to this one for pure heartbreak occurred in 2011, when closer Brandon League had about as bad a week as I've ever seen. He lost a game to the White Sox in Seattle on Sunday, and then after a travel day, blew saves in walk-off fashion on Tuesday in Baltimore, Thursday in Baltimore, and Friday in Cleveland. (On Wednesday in Baltimo

Over the last four games, the Mariners launched eight home runs, getting two each from Smoak and Ibanez and one home run from Seager, Morales, Ryan (!), and Chavez (!!!). Over the last four games, the Mariners scored a grand total of 15 runs, and went 0-4. The Mariners entire plan to turn the team around in 2013 revolved around “hit more dingers”. They’ve succeeded in that goal, as with 53 home runs, they are now 6th in the majors in total home runs hit. They are 25th in the majors in runs scored, and are 20-25, on pace to win 72 games. Trading pitching, defense, and on base percentage for home runs has made them no better. There is more to winning baseball than hitting home runs. -- This post came from: U.S.S. Mariner, and is copyright by the authors. This RSS feed is intended for the personal use of readers and not, for instance, spam blogs.The Cleveland Takeaway

Ugh, ugh, ugh. What is there to possibly say about this series in Cleveland? How frustrating. The home runs from Justin Smoak, Endy Chavez, and Brendan Ryan plus Ryan’s increased hitting over the past few games are great, but they are eclipsed by getting swept in a four-game series in a city we just don’t seem to do well in at all. The team as a whole has been hitting decently; during the Cleveland series, 10-7, 9-13, 4-9, and 12-11. All in all, the double digits are definitely encouraging. But the past four days have been sort of a comedy of errors, as the Mariners have found some really interesting ways to lose. When Tom Wilhelmsen came in today with a one-run lead, I thought we had a shot at avoiding the broom, but no. A botched tag at first on Wilhelmsen’s part, and some handy hitting from the Indians both served to be our undoing. We simply don’t seem to know what to do with runners in scoring position; the offense is there, but not when it counts. My schedule the past few days has made it nigh impossible for me to watch games; in fact, this morning’s was the only one I have been able to watch in the series. The AL Central is still kind of ‘blah’ to me as far as being able to get excited about the games against those teams. I have a healthy respect for the Tigers, but that’s about it. As of today, though, all those teams present a valid threat to us, and Cleveland, with their 26-17 record, is definitely to watch out for, especially on their home grass. Yuck. It’s a hard team that takes out both Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. What a mess. But now we head back to the comforts of the West Coast and the fourth place .386 Anaheim Angels before getting a home Felix start next Saturday against the first place Texas Rangers. Hopefully we can stop our skid a little bit and continue the climb back to second place on the backs of more familiar pitching.

9:05 am games are weird to watch in Seattle. Eating breakfast while watching baseball feels wrong, and yet delightful at the same time. One thing that is never delightful these days is playing baseball in Cleveland, as the Mariners manage once again provide false hope, only to Mariners up the victory. How sad is it that I don't even have to explain or justify the use of "Mariners" as a verb? Or adjective? Or expletive? Seattle hasn't won a game in Cleveland since 2011, and have lost in spectacular fashion during that time, as five of the last seven losses in Cleveland have been walk-offs. After today, it's now six of the past eight. Is that real? That can't possibly be real, can it? That is so Mariners. This game had plenty of highs and lows, and was one of the craziest games we'll see all year, but the ending was as predictable as it gets. The Mariners got off to a nice start early on, snagging a quick 2-0 lead thanks in part to a Kendrys Morales double that he thought he hit out of the park, which he didn't actually hit out of the park, or even close. The ball bounced off the lower part of the left field wall, and the end result was a hilarious big dude who doesn't know how or when to slide situation, as he tap danced his way to 2nd base. A Morse shot up the middle scored Morales, and the M's were out to a quick lead against Scott Kazmir, and everything was going as planned. Iwakuma settled into a nice groove, and other than a double up the line to Carlos Santana, he had things working for him. He struck out Ryan Raburn to end the 2nd inning, but then he got Laz'd. Iwakuma was denied an obvious strike three, and Raburn promptly bombed a 3 run homer two pitches later. The wheels came off a bit, and Yan Gomes bombed another mistake pitch from Iwakuma to make it 4-2 - fortunately, Scott Kazmir is still Scott Kazmir, and the M's scrambled a few back on 3 straight hits to tie it back up 4-4. Iwakuma came back out shaky again, and conceded another run to make it 5-4. At this point, it became fairly evident that the Mariners weren't in for their typical 2-0 zipper on a getaway day, and this one could be a messy one. The M's started smacking around Kazmir again in the 4th, and chased him. The M's tied things up, and things cooled down for a bit. Iwakuma managed to recover and retire 7 straight to get through the 6th inning, but the Mariners were unable to get anything done against Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw. Yoervis Medina gave the lead back to Cleveland in the 7th by struggling with his control, but managed to limit the damage to 1 run despite a couple loud outs to finish the inning. Seager responded in the top of the 8th by crushing a line drive homer to right, and we were tied once again. This is the exact moment I started to sense the Mariners were going to lose another walk-off game. In the 9th inning, Wedge decided to pinch hit Endy Chavez for Kelly Shoppach against Chris Perez, and Chavez promptly smacked a meatball into the seats to put the M's up 7-6. Just as he wrote it up. Though I was prepared for for more "saving the closer" snark before the Chavez blast, Tom Wilhelmsen quickly started warming up after the M's got the lead. In the 9th, Wilhelmsen let a couple batters on, and there were runners on the corners with 2 outs and that familiar walk-off feeling came up again with Carlos Santana at the plate. Like bile rising in the throat. Inevitable. Not a matter of if, but when. Instead, Smoak smothered a hot grounder to first and made the toss to Wilhelmsen covering first for the win...and Wilhelmsen drops the ball. Game tied. On to extras. It wasn't for long, as in the 10th, with 2 outs, Justin Smoak absolutely annihilated a ball into the RF bleachers to give the M's the lead back. Wilhelmsen threw 22 pitches in the 9th, so Wedge pulled him. Furbush came in to replace Wilhemsen to try to close things up and promptly allows a bloop single. Furbush bobbles the ensuing bunt, recovers, tosses it to Smoak, who

Twice, the Mariners had the Indians down to their final outs, but couldn't close it today. Charlie Furbush gives up the three-run homer in the 10th to Yan Gomes and the Indians hand the Mariners a 10-8 loss in 10 innings. Justin Smoak had homered to give the Mariners an 8-7 lead in the top of the inning, but then Furbush allowed a leadoff single, then saw Drew Stubbs reach base when Smoak dropped a ball at the bag. Gomes then hit his second home run of the game. The Mariners are swept in four.

The 2013 MLB First-Year Player Draft (hello unnecessarily long name) is coming up in less than a month, starting on June 6th. There isn’t quite as much build up for it as there is for the other major drafts. Mainly because it takes place in the middle of the season, and because it is crazy long. But, there are still people talking and speculating about who will go where. Over at Lookout Landing, Chris Crawford has been putting up weekly posts on various prospects that the M’s could take, and mock drafts are starting to pop up around the internet. The problem is, there never seems to be a consensus like there sometimes is for other sports. In the NBA, we know who is going to go #1 almost to a tee, and the whole top 10 is generally easy to predict. But with baseball, it is not nearly that simple. Each team has a different way of evaluating players, and value different aspects of the game. It is still fun to try and speculate about some possible targets, even if you can’t know for sure who your team is going to take. As a general rule, teams will take best player available. In baseball, that is really the best option. No one goes right to the bigs, so these prospects won’t be of value to your team until two, three years off, maybe more. What may be a set position at the time of the draft could be a hole when the draftee is ready to contribute. Prospects can also be valuable trade chips also, so even if a player is blocked, you can get some good value out of him. So I picked a few guys who I think could be around at #12 that the M’s may have at or near the top of their big-board. This is by no means an extensive list, and there was some personal bias when choosing what four players to highlight. But this is my post dangit. I will do with it what I so choose…within the guidelines of the site and the interests of the readers of course. Also, keep in mind I am no scout, so I am relying on what people who know more than I do have said, as well as what I have seen from the players. Austin Wilson, OF, R/R Stanford University 6-5/245 Wilson is a strong athletic outfielder with lots of power potential. He has struggled a bit this year, both with injury and his production. It has caused him to drop a little on some mocks, but he still looks like a decent choice at #12 for Seattle. John Sickels has him going 20 to the Tigers, but I have seen others that have him at 10 or better. The Mariners lack a big time outfield prospect, and that is exactly what Wilson could be. Scouts have his power at as high as a 70 for the future, with that being his best tool. However, it is not his only tool, as he looks fairly solid across the board. He has a massive build, but he does not play like it. He should stick in right field, and looks like a decent base stealer as well. If everything goes as planned for Wilson, he could be a very good player all around. He figures to be an above average corner outfielder thanks to his speed and arm. The bat is a little different, because there are some holes. But if he turns out like most expect, you are probably looking at a .270/.340/.480 type player, in the mold of a Nelson Cruz, or even Jay Bruce. If he reaches maximum potential and everything that can click does click, then he could be closer to Carlos Beltran or Yoenis Cespedes type player, but that isn’t likely. Then of course, if the contact deficiencies present a problem, he could turn into a Chris Carter type player. He definitely has a high ceiling, but it is really hard to pinpoint where he stands right now. He could go top 10, or he could fall to 20. He kind of gives off a high school boom or bust vibe despite being a college player. If he is there at 12 though, I think there is a good chance the M’s take him. Reese McGuire, C, L/R Kentwood HS (Kent, WA) 6-1/190 I recently saw McGuire play in person, and was very impressed with what I saw. He is a very sound defensive catcher, and just looks like he knows wh

Iwakuma vs Kazmir, 9:05 am. Scott Kazmir is healthy again, and is currently throwing as hard as he did when he was a top prospect. Don’t think of Kazmir as the broken terrible pitcher of the last few years. His fastball has been up to 96 and his slider has some bite again, so the M’s will have their work cut out for them today. As always, the key with Kazmir is to not give him free outs, and make him throw strikes consistently. Patience, not aggressiveness, should be the trait of the day. 1. Saunders, CF 2. Bay, LF 3. Seager, 3B 4. Morales, DH 5. Morse, RF 6. Smoak, 1B 7. Shoppach, C 8. Andino, 2B 9. Ryan, SS -- This post came from: U.S.S. Mariner, and is copyright by the authors. This RSS feed is intended for the personal use of readers and not, for instance, spam blogs.Game 44, Mariners at Indians

I'm going to assume that you don't have any idea who Dave Hansen is. I think that's a pretty safe assumption, because Dave Hansen is the Mariners' hitting coach, and no one ever cares about the hitting coach until the hitting coach gets fired. Do you remember anything Chris Chambliss did? No. You probably don't even know what Chris Chambliss' job is these days, and if this paragraph has inspired you to look up Chris Chambliss' current employment, you should probably rethink how you allocate your time on the internet. The reason that no one cares about the hitting coach is simple: no one knows about the hitting coach. His exploits are not the stuff of legend. They usually aren't even the stuff of beat reporter tweets. His work is done behind closed doors, and most of it doesn't have a huge effect on a hitter's performance. Brendan Ryan isn't bad at hitting because of where he puts his right foot, he's bad at hitting because he's Brendan Ryan, and in that respect there's only so much a coach can do. What work the hitting coach can do is generally kept secret - the team obviously has a vested interest in not revealing their hitters' weaknesses to the world. So while I'm sure Dave Hansen does very interesting work, and the players are grateful for his presence, and he is considered an important part of the staff... I'd wager that the median Mariners fan neither knows nor cares about him. Which is a shame, because it seems like he's doing some pretty nifty stuff. As you know, last year's Mariners were rather strikeout-prone and walk-averse. They ranked 20th in MLB in walks and 8th in strikeouts, which is a rather undesirable combination, and then over the offseason they decided to fix their plate discipline woes by trading John Jaso for Michael Morse. People did not expect this team to be good at plate discipline. But people's expectations are often confounded. Sometimes a cigar is a dick. Sometimes the Angels sign Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols only to witness Raul Ibanez post a higher ISO than the two of them combined. And sometimes the Mariners trade away their most disciplined hitter, only to leap from 20th to 10th in the BB% rankings. How are they doing it? Well, check out the 2013 Mariners' O-Swing%s, juxtaposed with their career O-Swing%s in bar graph form: The first thing that immediately leaps out at you is that almost everyone's O-Swing% is significantly down. Now, before you ask me if this is statistically significant, I'd like to point out that the timing of this post is not accidental. Michael Saunders and Jesus Montero both just cleared the 100 PA bar this weekend. Since (as per the research of the fabulous Pizza Cutter) the normal threshold for Swing% significance is 50 PA, and since Montero and Saunders see roughly 50% pitches in the zone and 50% pitches out of the zone, we can roughly estimate that O-Swing% tends to become meaningful right around 100 PA. Which is where all of the Mariners on the chart are now. Hooray for Logan not being really stupid, probably! The second thing that somewhat less immediately occurs to you is that the five hitters who've seen the biggest proportional drop in O-Swing% - that's Saunders, Montero, Seager, Morales, and Smoak in order - have all seen a significant spike in BB% without a corresponding spike in K%. Here, I'll prove it. A table: BB% Saunders Montero Seager Morales Smoak Pre-2013 8.1% 5.8% 6.9% 6.6% 10.9% 2013 10.7% 6.7% 10.6% 9.4% 15.5% Another table: K% Saunders Montero Seager Morales Smoak Pre-2013 26.3% 18.6% 17.1% 18.2% 21.6% 2013 23.3% 18.1% 19.0% 15.8% 21.3% Montero is walking at 115% the rate he used to. The other four are walking at more than 130% their old rates, while Seager is all the way above 150%. Of the five, only Seager has seen his strikeout rate increase, and it's not a large increase relative to what his walks have done. In fact, the group as a whole has seen the

Hisashi Iwakuma will try to snap this skid of three straight losses by the Mariners, taking the AL's best ERA (2.24) among starters since last year's All-Star Break into today's contest. Iwakuma has started to go seven innings more frequently as he moves beyond the blister issue that plagued him throughout April. He still has to monitor the blister, which is why we've yet to see him go eight or nine innings like the aces on some other teams. If he can do that, he'll start seeing his name mentioned right up there with some of the game's best.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: Be sure to join me at 8 a.m. PT for Talkin' Baseball with Mitch Levy on Sports Radio KJR. We've got a real early 9:05 a.m. PT start time today, so Mariners manager Eric Wedge held his pregame chat first thing this morning and it almost felt like we were back in spring training. Wedge said his players have to be aware of the fact they've played tough in five of the six games on this trip thus far -- up until yesterday -- and could have won each of those despite having a 2-4 record. Wedge was asked about his team's performance with runners in scoring position and he said that improvement in this area would indeed turn some of these close losses into wins. It being a dull Monday morning and all, I could not resist asking Wedge about his thoughts on hitting with runners in scoring position. As you may know, for years, many have attempted to quantify whether such hitting is indeed a skill, or whether it boils down mainly to luck. The Mariners are batting .239 overall and .209 with runners in scoring position. I know exactly how Wedge feels about it, since he mentions runners in scoring position hitting very often. But just for fun, I asked Wedge to spell out exactly what it takes to hit in such situations and whether he subscribes at all to the "luck" theory. It's an interesting answer he gave -- regardless of where you fall on the whole RISP thing -- because I think it reminds us once again that no matter how many numbers we try to crunch, these are still human beings playing the game and subject to all types of variables we will never be ale to entirely quantify. "It's just different,'' he said. "Those same (luck theory) people argue that the ninth inning is the same as the seventh and eighth inning. It's different. If I have to explain it to you, then you don't understand. I can't. I don't have enough time to explain it to you, because if you don't know, then you don't know. And you're never going to know. If you don't get it, you don't get it and you're not going to get it. "The ninth inning is different because we're human beings and we're not widgets. OK? It's no different than when you're doing regular human being things and your heatbeat speeds up a bit from the things that you're doing in regular life. That's what happens with these guys when they're playing and millions of people are watching and there are 30,000 people in the stands. "So, it's a situation where it's a little bit more important. You know the outcome's going to be more important. So, you feel that. So, it takes some time to be a clutch hitter. It takes time  -- more time than not -- to end up being a closer. But that's what you love about the game, too, as far as I'm concerned. The human element, as far as I'm concerned. The success and the failures that you have in this game are more extreme than you have in other sports. "One, because you play it every day and two because there is just more failure in this sport. That's why the human element and the heartbeat and everything is such a big factor.'' In other news, Aaron Harang appears good to go for tomorrow night's start, though the team has yet to officially confirm it. Wedge was asked about Erasmo Ramirez and Danny Hultzen and said it's going to take substantial time for both to recover from their shoulder injuries. Neither is to the point yet, Wedge added, where the team can hope to count on them being added to the major league squad this season. That may change as their rehab progresses, but for now, the Mariners are not counting on it yet.