With shares of Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) trading around $21.27, is HPQ an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:
T = Trends for a Stock’s M...
With shares of Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) trading around $21.27, is HPQ an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:
T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement
Hewlett-Packard is a provider of products, technologies, software, solutions and services to individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses and large enterprises, including customers in the Government, health and education sectors. Its operations are organized into seven segments: the Personal Systems Group, Services, the Imaging and Printing Group, Enterprise Servers, Storage and Networking, HP Software, HP Financial Services and Corporate Investments. Hewlett-Packard’s offerings include personal computing and other access devices; multi-vendor customer services, including infrastructure technology and business process outsourcing, application development and support services, and imaging and printing-related products and services. As a leading provider of diverse software and technologies, Hewlett-Packard will see rising profits from growing companies and economies worldwide. Technology advances at explosive rates and Hewlett-Packard stands ready to provide the products and services many consumers and companies around the world require to fuel expansion.
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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed
Hewlett-Packard stock is now attempting to recover from increased selling pressure over the last several years. The stock has put together a reasonable bounce but may need a catalyst to propel the stock higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Hewlett-Packard is trading around its key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.
(Source: Thinkorswim)
Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Hewlett-Packard options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.
Implied Volatility (IV)
30-Day IV Percentile
90-Day IV Percentile
Hewlett-Packard Options
45.17%
90%
89%
What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.
Put IV Skew
Call IV Skew
June Options
Steep
Average
July Options
Steep
Average
As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.
On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.
E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter
Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Hewlett-Packard’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Hewlett-Packard look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)
-13.70%
-3060%
-582%
-23.81%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)
-5.59%
-6.72%
-4.87%
-2.97%
Earnings Reaction
12.28%
-11.95%
-8.12%
3.27%
Hewlett-Packard has seen decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have been a bit confused about Hewlett-Packard’s recent earnings announcements.
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