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When the A's purchased Jesse Chavez's contract from the Toronto Blue Jays last year, the collective reaction amongst A's fans was "Really? Him?" The volume on the grumbling got turned up when we kept Chavez and got rid of key 2012 perfor...
When the A's purchased Jesse Chavez's contract from the Toronto Blue Jays last year, the collective reaction amongst A's fans was "Really? Him?" The volume on the grumbling got turned up when we kept Chavez and got rid of key 2012 performer Travis Blackley, and for good reason. Here's a list of Jesse Chavez's major league seasons by ERA coming into this year: Year ERA 2008 6.60 2009 4.01 2010 5.89 2011 10.57 2012 9.85 Career 5.67 Those numbers are more terrifying than three Jack Custs playing outfield. It seemed to us that there was no reason for Jesse Chavez to be pitching for any major league team, much less one who had a division to win. In case anyone forgot, we did win it, despite the fact that Jesse Chavez pitched in games 143, 146, 147, and 156, giving up runs in 3 out of the 4 appearances, all A's losses. The legend of Jesse Chavez had grown (shrunk?) to the point that this season, whenever Bob Melvin would even have Chavez warm up, we would immediately assume that BoMel was punting the game. When Chavez came into the game in the 13th inning against the Yankees, we all knew it was only a matter of time until the Yankees exploded for 4 runs and we would all go home unhappy. Of course, we all know now what happened next. He promptly went 5.2 innings, giving up only 1 hit, 2 walks, and striking out 7. We were all surprised, but the gutsy performance lowered Chavez's season ERA to 1.83. While he did take the loss in his next outing against the Rangers, it seems, so far, that Jesse "Forfeit the Game" Chavez is a thing of the past. What changed, besides the fact that the A's front office team is a much better evaluator of talent than we are? There are a few different aspects of his seemingly miraculous turnaround, but one of the main aspects is this: he wasn't nearly as bad as his numbers looked. If you really want to vomit, go back and look at the Jesse Chavez ERA chart above, but I don't recommend it. The numbers seem to speak for themselves: he consistently, over multiple seasons, posted an awful ERA. But there are a few problems with those numbers. First of all, sample size. In that 2008 season, when he posted a 6.60 ERA, he only pitched 15 innings total, and gave up a BABIP of .380. His xFIP for that stint was 4.20. In the 2011 season, when he posted an ERA of 10.57, he only threw 7.2 innings, and had a completely unsustainable 42.9% HR/FB rate. The league average is about 10%. In such a small sample size, his numbers never had a chance to balance out.That still doesn't help his awful numbers in 2010 and 2012, though. One cool statistic provided by FanGraphs is LOB% (left on base%). Research has shown that pitchers have almost no control over stranding runners- over time, most pitchers will have a LOB% around 70%. The idea of "bearing down" with runners on base has not been shown statistically. In the short term, though, a pitcher might strand a larger or smaller number of runners, inflating or deflating their ERA before regression takes hold. For relief pitchers, who pitch a much smaller number of innings than starters, LOB% fluctuations have a much greater effect. FanGraphs provides this handy chart to help put LOB% numbers in context: Rating LOB% Excellent 80% Great 78% Above Average 75% Average 72% Below Average 70% Poor 65% Awful 60% Jesse Chavez's LOB% in 2010 and 2012? 63.1% and 49.7% (!!!!!) respectively. In 2010, his luck with runners on base was somewhere between "poor" and "awful". In 2012, it was over 10% below awful. Fangraphs doesn't even have a term for how bad Jesse Chavez was with runners on base in 2012. It seems that his awful numbers weren't nearly as bad as they might seem at first glace. I think there is no way of demonstrating this better than the following: Jesse Chavez's career ERA is now 5.57. His career xFIP, the best predictor of future ERA, is 4.27. Not great, but worlds bett
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Yesterday afternoon, I found myself walking in downtown Mississauga and cut through Celebration Square. I was surprised to find beautiful, lush, fake grass. For a little perspective, here's what Celebration Square looks like with...
Yesterday afternoon, I found myself walking in downtown Mississauga and cut through Celebration Square. I was surprised to find beautiful, lush, fake grass. For a little perspective, here's what Celebration Square looks like with this artificial turf.
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BOSTON -- Wade Redden walked into the Boston Bruins' locker room after their morning skate on Monday and ran into top prospects Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin and Darnell Nurse. The four were at TD Garden for a media avail...
BOSTON -- Wade Redden walked into the Boston Bruins' locker room after their morning skate on Monday and ran into top prospects Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin and Darnell Nurse. The four were at TD Garden for a media availability ahead of the NHL Draft later this month and were hanging around the Bruins' locker room when Redden stopped, still in his gear, to chat them up. It was 18 years ago that the 36-year old Redden was one of those prospects inside Joe Louis Arena during the 1995 Stanley Cup Final doing the same thing: meeting NHL players, talking to the media and hoping one day he'd be where he is today: in the NHL, having a chance to win a ring. One year ago, that hope didn't seem like it would ever materialize again for Redden, who watched the Kings-Devils final after completing his second season with the Connecticut Whale of the AHL. Redden and his $6.5 million salary were demoted in a salary cap-saving move by the New York Rangers before the 2010-11 season. He didn't complain. He didn't request a trade. He just came to the rink every day and played, but kept the hope that one day he would be back in the NHL. "I think that's what I had in my head to motivate and push [me]," said Redden. "I knew I could come back and I wanted to get an opportunity. I don't think I ever would have predicted it, but definitely that's what you want to have in your mind." "I went down to Hartford and had a positive experience there. I enjoyed the game down there, even though it was a tough situation. Once I got over that, I tried to approach the game the way I always have. And that's the way I've got to keep doing it." Littered on team comprised mostly of players in their early 20s, Redden took on a mentor role, something he's doing again for a few of the Bruins' young blueliners, like Matt Bartkowski, Dougie Hamilton and Torey Krug. With the injuries to their defense corps earlier in the playoffs, including to Redden, head coach Claude Julien was forced to shuffle his pairings. Redden, who hasn't played since Game 6 against Toronto, is now forced to just wait his turn. “I try to be positive," he said "These guys get in the zone and they play and they know what they need to do. "First round, three of us went down so you’ve got to keep yourself ready and be upbeat around the guys and be part of as much as you can.” After his two years in hockey purgatory, Redden signed with the St. Louis Blues after the Rangers used one of their two compliance buyouts on him in January, thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement. On April 3, Redden was dealt to the Bruins and was reunited with his former Ottawa Senators teammates Zdeno Chara and Chris Kelly. Those relationships, along with the fact that Boston was loading up for another Cup run was reinvigorating for Redden. Redden's been in a Final before -- 2007 with the Ottawa when they fell in five games to Anaheim Ducks. In a year of second chances for Redden, the Stanley Cup Final provides him another one. “Not everyone even gets a chance to be here, so you want to make the most of it." Follow Sean Leahy on Twitter at @Sean_Leahy
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One of the things about planning your own wedding is that you've got to personally deliver a ton of stuff to the venue. I'm talking about liquor, beer, pop, juice, cupcakes, charger plates, table clothes, centerpieces, etc. I can't ima...
One of the things about planning your own wedding is that you've got to personally deliver a ton of stuff to the venue. I'm talking about liquor, beer, pop, juice, cupcakes, charger plates, table clothes, centerpieces, etc. I can't imagine how many trips in my old Mazda it would take. Luckily for us, I was driving a 2013 Ford Edge this past week and this crossover has loads of space. In addition to being roomy, the Edge was great fun to drive. It's quiet, peppy and loaded with fun perks like keyless entry and start, a rear cam and blind spot warnings. Then there's the entertainment centre... I might miss that most of all.
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By Wayne Whittaker, Boston Bruins Correspondent The crowd is roaring, the spotlights flashing, the goal horn is blaring, and the repetitive thump of a tired but familiar techno song serenades you to the bench. Congratulations, your team ...
By Wayne Whittaker, Boston Bruins Correspondent The crowd is roaring, the spotlights flashing, the goal horn is blaring, and the repetitive thump of a tired but familiar techno song serenades you to the bench. Congratulations, your team has just been scored on by the Boston Bruins in TD Garden. Home ice advantage is no myth. In front of their home crowd the Bruins are 8-2 in the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs, including seven straight victories. For the 17,565 in attendance the Bruins are more than just a hockey team, they serve as an extension of the city’s identity. Bruins Crowd during the 2011 Stanley Cup Final (photo courtesy of Wayne Whittaker) From the moment the doors open in the arena, roughly one hour prior to puck-drop, there’s a systematic plan in place to create chaos and euphoria. It begins with Ron Poster, a Berklee College of Music graduate, and TD Garden organist for the past eleven years. Behind an unfortunate drum machine, Poster plays mostly for his own enjoyment for the first half hour or so. A mix of top-40 pop hits and classic rock songs serve as a soundtrack for fans being ushered into their seats. Then, while fans are still meandering in the balcony, the 12’9″ x 21’4″ HDX screen begins to periodically show glimpses inside the Bruins locker room. Focused Boston players pretend not to notice the cameras or the crowd’s instant reaction. The energy continues to slowly build. Following warm-ups, the arena goes dark again. A five minute video montage set to deafeningly loud butt-rock appears on the massive overhanging scoreboard, and the pre-game traditions begin. It starts with the honorary fan banner captain. What started in 2009 as a way to engage the fans in the pre-game festivities took on new meaning after the marathon bombings in Boston. Retired Bruins greats were replaced by police officers, first responders, families of victims, and the victims themselves, all showing their resilience and pumping even more emotion into a rabid crowd. By the time the Bruins take the ice to the deafening crowd-noise, it could be considered an insult to lose on home ice. And if all goes as planned, no one will have to worry about that. The TD Garden is one of the best buildings in the National Hockey League if the Bruins are winning. As soon as the red light goes on above the opponent’s net-minder, the lights, music, and crowd noise creates a frustrating sensory overload and gives the opposing team no time to regroup or shrug off their mistake. As much as teams like to say that crowd noise doesn’t have an affect on the game one way or another, nobody really believes it. In the Stanley Cup runs of 2011 and 2013, when the B’s has gone a combined 18-5 in Boston, you can clearly see the affect that the home crowd has. They’re loud, they’re cocky, they’re angry, and they’re leather lunged. Look back at the huge momentum swing that took place in Game 7 vs. Toronto. Following Milan Lucic’s goal with 1:22 remaining in the third, the crowd began to come alive. By the time Bergeron tied it with 55 seconds left, it was a vacuum of noise. For James Reimer and the Maple Leafs, there was no hiding from the fact that they had just screwed up very, very badly, and there was no doubt the Bruins were going to win the game in overtime. In 2011, the NHL decided to conduct an experiment by reading sound decibel levels during the Stanley Cup Final. Keeping in mind that the level at which sustained exposure may result in hearing loss is 90-95 dB (and pain begins at 125 dB), the TD Garden recorded levels between 114-119 dB after every Boston goal in the series. With their team now two wins away from a second championship in three seasons, Game 4 should be another loud and raucous affair on Causeway Street. – Follow Wayne on Twitter Author informationWayne WhittakerWayne Whittaker has been a Boston Bruins Correspondent for TheHockeyWriters.com since 201
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Taylor Russell has seen a lot of interiors. After living in hotels for six years her job at a communications agency had her moving every four months to places like Kuwait, Pakistan, Spain and Barbados she experienced hundreds of differ...
Taylor Russell has seen a lot of interiors. After living in hotels for six years her job at a communications agency had her moving every four months to places like Kuwait, Pakistan, Spain and Barbados she experienced hundreds of different living spaces. More than enough to realize...
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The Buffalo trio Lemuria covered the Muffs' "From Your Girl" for Exclaim! TV in Toronto a few weeks ago. You can watch the video under Read More. The band just released The Distance is so Big on Bridge Nine Records yesterday.
The Buffalo trio Lemuria covered the Muffs' "From Your Girl" for Exclaim! TV in Toronto a few weeks ago. You can watch the video under Read More. The band just released The Distance is so Big on Bridge Nine Records yesterday.
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Michael Miller floats the theory that L.A. is picking up the creative transplants New York is pushing out due to high prices and fatigue. The experts interviewed have all been living in L.A. for years. [Gallerist] Speaking of being price...
Michael Miller floats the theory that L.A. is picking up the creative transplants New York is pushing out due to high prices and fatigue. The experts interviewed have all been living in L.A. for years. [Gallerist] Speaking of being priced out, creatives worried high prices will force them to leave the city should attend the town-hall style meeting tonight at Jules de Balincourt’s Starr Space. The meeting is structured to brainstorm solutions. [Eventbrite] Heather Ford, a DPhil student at the Oxford Internet Institute responds to claims that Wikipedia can show you “how the world perceives your own national culture” and why that’s a wrong headed assumption. [HBlog.org] Artists are shooting more shit into space. First Trevor Paglen launched an archival silicon disk with photographs into deep space, now Germany-based conceptual artist Kim Asendorf has shot his gif out of a guy tilting his head in confusion (or curiosity) via the Lone Signal METI (Messaging Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) experiment. It’s on 17.6 year journey towards Gliese 526. Marina Galperina took a bit of time to interview the artist. [Animal] Toronto Mayor and alleged crack smoker Rob Ford revealed his love for astrology yesterday while attending the unveiling of an Ai Weiwei zodiac at Nathan Phillips Square pond. [The Toronto Star] Go see: Five million (or so) museum openings in New York this week. [C-Monster] Rich people are suing each other again. Brand X Editions, the New York-based print studio claims they are owed 6 million dollars from artist Christopher Wool and his gallery Luhring Augustine respectively (12 million total) after they violated the terms of a production agreement. [Gallerist]
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Less than two weeks before they take the stage to announce the first overall selection in the 2013 NHL draft, the Colorado Avalanche have gone public with their plan.
Less than two weeks before they take the stage to announce the first overall selection in the 2013 NHL draft, the Colorado Avalanche have gone public with their plan.
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As summer officially begins, I'll be settling in for 10 days of music at my hometown jazz festival, the TD Ottawa Jazz Festival. This time of year often finds me heading off to other festivals on assignment, but sticking close to home I'...
As summer officially begins, I'll be settling in for 10 days of music at my hometown jazz festival, the TD Ottawa Jazz Festival. This time of year often finds me heading off to other festivals on assignment, but sticking close to home I'll be making my own choices about what to see and hear. Here's where you'll find me:June 20Dr. John & The Nite Trippers – I came to Mac Rebennack's music courtesy of the late FM DJ Brian Murphy, around the time that the New Orleans singer and pianist was dressing in feathers and glitter and trading on the mystery of Louisiana folklore. In those years, Rebennack's band featured some of the young heavyweights of the Southern rock scene, and they did a great job at stirring up a stew of spacey sounds on songs like "I Walk On Gilded Splinters." Rebennack has moved in many directions since then, and lifestyle choices have not always made for the strongest music. But, like many other musicians his age, Rebennack has cleaned up and rejuvenated himself, and he's sounding better than he has in years.June 21Mike Reed's People, Places & Things – A couple of years ago, at the annual Winter Jazzfest in New York City, the buzz among my fellow music critics was all about drummer Mike Reed. In part, this was because New Yorkers can't stand to be behind the curve, and they wanted to see if someone based in Chicago was as good as his advance rep. The other part was just how good Reed's rep is, and the fact that his band includes other promising young players. Reed is one of those drummers who break the stereotype; not only leading a band, but writing compelling compositions that reflect the music's heritage and help move it ahead.Aoife O'Donovan – Those who follow American roots music—particularly the strands that lean toward bluegrass and Celtic heritage—already knew about the power and suppleness of Aoife O'Donovan's gorgeous voice before she was selected by trumpeter Dave Douglas to join his band for his album of traditional hymns. I've since watched her perform her own music via NPR's video stream, and I'm looking forward to hearing more of her captivating material. O'Donovan has a deep well to draw on (she studied at the New England Conservatory of Music) and represents a broad cross-section of American music.June 23Mike Murley Septet – There was a time when Canada's leading musicians—who, for the most part, live in Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal—could afford to take their bands to other parts of the country throughout the year. Thanks to cuts to government funding and rising transportation/accommodation costs, those days are gone, so this is a welcome opportunity to catch up with saxophonist Mike Murley and some of the other great mainstream players—including Kevin Turcotte, Jim Vivian, and Ted Warren—who live in Toronto.David Byrne & St. Vincent – Guitarist Annie Clark knocked me out the first time I heard her, and I've been a fan of Byrne's since the Talking Heads' debut album. Remarkably, I've never seen Byrne live, so I'm anticipating this show a lot. A free download of this band, which Byrne made available a few weeks ago, demonstrates that it combines the quirky rhythms that Byrne loves with a tremendous horn section.June 24 Joe Morris/William Parker/Charles Downs – I think I may have seen bassist William Parker perform more than any other musician in the past 20 years, but I never see enough of either him or guitarist Joe Morris. The great acoustics of the National Arts Centre's Fourth Stage should really make an intimate performance of close listening.Gilad Hekselman Trio – Another highly original guitarist, and another trio—featuring Marcus Gilmore and Joe Martin—that promises to push things into exciting places. I'm not sure how well this show will go over in the 'After Dark' tent, where audiences usually expect more pop-oriented shows, but I'll be happy to endure the likely grumbling and early exits.June 26Steve Kuhn Trio with Steve Swallow & Joey Baron – Okay, life is full of difficult choices,
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