Toronto Maple Leafs

There has been much debate if Carlyle's defensive system that claims to pushes shots has been beneficial and effective to the leafs. That is, the typical comment is that even though the leafs are being outshot, they are giving up more "lower quality" chances from a further distance and minimizing quality scoring chances close up. How To Measure Effectiveness of Carlyle's Strategy? Below I will try to quantify the "effectiveness" of Carlyle's strategy. There are a number of imperfect ways to measure effectiveness of the defensive system. Two of them are 1. How well the system minimizes shot against (SA) as a proxy for minimizing scoring chances against 2. How well the system maximizes the ratio of shots for to shots against (SF/(SF+SA) as a proxy for how well the team "outchancing" the competition. Using Ninjastat's supershot tracker the shots for and against the leafs in road games for 2012 and 2013 were outputted. Note that, fenwick or corsi events (blocked shots, shots on goal and missed shots) from various distances are not available and so in this study we will use shots on goal as a "proxy" for Fenwick Close (actually scoring chances) in this analysis. Shots Against Skinnyfish has done a thorough analysis of shots against here. My focus was primarily looking at the shot differential change in 2012 vs 2013 leaf team. This analysis didn't compare earlier leaf teams as the team roster was different (Kubina, Kaberle, Poni, Antropov, Moore, Stajan etc) who were actually quite effective at outshooting competition. Looking at the 2012 vs 2013 leaf results (see spreadsheet) we see this current team has given up fewer shots as a percentage below 30 feet at a cost of more shots at a distance greater then 30 feet. On a per game basis, they have also given up fewer shots between 0 to 10 feet and 20 to 30 feet at a cost of more shots between 10 to 20 feet and dramatically more shots beyond 40 feet. The leafs have been effective at decreasing the proportion and quantity of shots from quality area (close up) at the cost of a large increase of shots from low quality areas (far away). This fact is probably known to most or at least evident to those that looked into it with some detail. In fact, even HNIC and Mirtle and a number of bloggers have discussed this topic. What is not answered is does it matter and if so how much? More on that later. Shot Differential The alternate method to review is shot differential defined as SF/(SF+SA) and develop a proxy for scoring chances (or Fenwick Close) at each of these distances. This is shown in the table for 2012 vs 2013 teams. Again, the leafs have improved their SF% (shot differential) by 3.7% within 0 to 10 feet. That is impressive. However, any gains in fewer shots and outscoring that Carlyle and the team gained at 0 to 10 feet is completely overwhelmed by the team being massively out shot beyond 10 feet. The problem again is does this tradeoff of allowing fewer high quality scoring chances close in at the cost or more low risk scoring chances from further out matter? And if so how much? Weights and SH% At this point, we should mention that all typical shot differentials are unweighted in that they treat shots, corsi or fenwick events as the same regardless if they are from 0 to 10 feet or beyond 30 feet. This treatment would be questioned by most coaches and many fans as a shot from 0 to 10 feet is much more dangerous then a shot beyond 30 feet. However shot differential don't care and they could possibly penalize a team who allows more shots from outside. To get by the problem with the using raw shot data, most NHL coaches track scoring chances. The scoring chance team data is something which is not available though some bloggers track and publish this data so that is a possible avenue to investigate. The method I use to determine the "effectiveness" of Carlyle's system and adjust shots for their quality is from this gem of entry b

May 8, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A general view of the Air Canada Centre during the Toronto Maple Leafs game against the Boston Bruins during game four of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs at the Air Canada Centre. The Bruins beat the Leafs 4-3 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports Hockey Canada has a news conference planned for Thursday where it is expected they will announce that Toronto and Montreal will share the hosting duties for the 2015 and 2017 World Junior Hockey Championships. Bob McKenzie of TSN is reporting that the 2015 tournament will see Montreal host the preliminary round and Toronto host the medal round. In 2017 the roles will be reversed and Toronto will get the preliminary round, while Montreal will host the medal round. Although no location has been announced about where the contests will be played, games will likely take place at the Air Canada Centre and the Bell Centre, where the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens play respectively.

Anybody who takes rumours at this time of year at face value is either new to hockey or still reading Hockeybuzz. I’m neither of those. These Jonathan Bernier to Toronto rumours seem like nonsense, and I don’t want to believe them. I really don’t. Other bloggers have addressed this already, so I won’t retread the [more…]

May 24, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; NHL referee Dan O National Hockey League General Managers have approved the introduction of hybrid icing, mandatory visors, shallower nets, and video review on four-minute high-sticking penalties. All items still need approval from the NHL’s Board of Governors before becoming official. Visors will be grandfathered in for next year, which means anyone currently in the league still has a choice on whether or not to wear one, but players entering the NHL from junior, college or Europe will be now required to put one on. Hybrid icing is going to get a trial run during the 2013-14 pre-season, but shallower nets will come into play for the entire campaign. This should create a little more room for players behind the goal. Using video review on high-sticks should hopefully eliminate many debates of whether or not a player was actually clipped.

BOSTON -- The National Hockey League general managers endorsed all of the recommendations made by the NHL Competition Committee during a meeting Wednesday, according to NHLPA Special Assistant to the Executive Director Mathieu Schneider.   The C...

The Boston Bruins are starting to look unstoppable. After shutting down the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday night, they hold a 2-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup final heading into Game 4 at home tonight. They’re two wins away from a championship that would cap off one of the most impressive playoff runs in recent history.A quick recap: In the first round, the Bruins beat the Toronto Maple Leafs. Since then, they’ve found themselves facing the New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and now the Blackhawks. Or, to put those matchups in some perspective: last year’s top seed in the East, this year’s top seed in the East, and this year’s top seed overall.Heading into tonight’s action, here’s how those teams have fared against Boston: The Maple Leafs Everyone Else Combined Games played 7 12 Goals scored 18 17 Wins 3 2 Regulation wins 3 0 Without putting too fine a point on it, those numbers don’t make any sense. How could the Bruins be rolling over three of the best teams in the NHL so easily, when they needed a historic Game 7 comeback just to survive against a very average Toronto team?Or, to rephrase the question in a more intriguing way: Is it possible that the Leafs knew something that everyone else has missed?The good news is that, as a Maple Leafs fan, I watched that first-round series closely. The bad news is that, as a Maple Leafs fan, my therapist has ordered me never to discuss it again. So if he asks, the next few thousand words never happened.I floated a version of the question — What the hell happened in that Leafs series? — on Twitter a few nights ago. Here are some of the most common theories I got back in response, and my thoughts on whether there could be some truth to them.>> Read the full post on Grantland

I thought—at least I really hoped—that we would see a summer go by where there was not a goaltending “issue” in Leafworld. Alas, it isn’t meant to be, apparently.It seems like, in recent years at least, this has been one of the constant roster themes here: what will the Maple Leafs do in goal next season? We have lacked stability in this regard since, well, since Eddie Belfour left town, and that was a while ago.Though the Stanley Cup finals are still ongoing, it is already the ‘speculation’ season, for sure, and that means we will hear no end of talk about who the Leafs might select in the first round of the upcoming draft (and whether they will trade “up”, which seems to be an annual discussion…) as well as chatter around who Nonis may trade away—and deal for.The latest talk out there? The Kings need (want?) to move an asset, young goaltender Jonathan Bernier, the former first-round draft choice. They likely feel there will never be a time when his value is higher than it is right now.Now, I have nothing against Bernier. He played pretty darn well when given the opportunity this past season, and has long been mentioned as a future goaltending star on the horizon. But that’s the thing, after all these years since we first heard about Bernier, his NHL sample size is still relatively tiny. He has largely been a bit of fiction, in the sense that his reputation and supposed potential seem to have taken on a life of their own.I well recognize he is playing behind one of the finest goalies (currently...this can change quickly in the modern NHL) in the world in Jonathan Quick, so his chances to shine have been (and still may be in the near future) few and far between so far in his career. But when it comes to the Leafs, is Bernier any more “proven” than James Reimer? Forget his “stats”—the numbers don’t mean a whole lot to me. Most Leaf fans have probably not seen that much of Bernier lately. We actually saw Reimer in action when it counted this spring against the Bruins, and while the flaws in his game were still evident at times, he also showed a lot of poise, talent—and guts. We were, much like the Spurs against the Heat, seconds away (in our case, not scoring in an empty net and in theirs, missing a late clinching free throw) from locking up a game—and a series—that was ours.For the most part, Reimer did his job, and just about as well as he could, against a roster that is now in the finals for the second time in three seasons.So here we are, back yet again, to this discussion of yet another goaltender in Toronto. Yes, this is media speculation, which is their lifeblood after all, but these supposed leaks come from somewhere. (Yes, it could all just be the fertile imagination of a writer, or idle chatter from an ‘insider’ from another organization who wanted to shake things up—I doubt anyone within the Leaf camp is spreading this one...but this kind of a move does make sense for the Kings.) That said, if it is true that this is something that Dave Nonis is even contemplating (much like the Luongo and Kiprusoff tire-kicking at the trade deadline back in March) I ask simply: why?After all, we already have a guy, under contract no less, who costs us nothing other than his salary at this point. And he’s pretty good. To acquire Bernier, you know the Kings and their General Manager Dean Lombardi will be looking at bona fide young roster talent in return. Though, as a Leaf guy, I don't know nearly enough to fairly assess Bernier, if I was in Lombardi’s shoes, I'd start with Jake Gardiner on my list of demands if I was negotiating with the Maple Leafs. Matt Frattin would certainly not be enough, especially if a number of teams are supposedly interested in the young King netminder. You have to believe Lombardi will wring every asset he possibly can out of this deal.Is Bernier so proven, so established, does he have such huge upside, that he is worth relegating Reimer to, at best, a back-up role here? And beyond that, i

Links 2013 Player Review: Joffrey Lupul Arm gets a C-. Can You Name This Leaf? Vintage Leafs would love to know. Collecting Vintage When You Cheer for an Expansion Team Neat piece by 1967ers. Bickell: "Mario Kart Helps us Focus" Meatheads trying to say they'd be better off playing Super Smash Brothers. Bourne's 10 Takeaways from Game 3 Good call on Chicago being intimidated by Rask. How the Hawks and Bruins Spent Their Money Sweet breakdown on BHS. NHL Coaches Dissect Chicago's Dormant Powerplay In my opinion, they're trying to be too perfect.

It’s been awhile. How do these work again? Seriously. Despite Tweeting up a storm during the playoffs, I haven’t written anything since January. Call it a combination of hell the lockout sucking the passion out of me and Burke‘s firing amounting to a platinum-knuckled gut punch at the time. But new posts are coming, and [more…]

Hats off to Leafs goaltender Ben Scrivens, who once again is in the news for serving his community.  This latest venture is to join the march in the upcoming Pride parade. A couple weeks ago, Scrivens was a part of a Special Olympics fundraiser. Prior to this year, former GM Brian Burke marched in the