Trend Analysis

Probably the most satisfying way to label the rise since 2009 is a double zigzag. Each zigzag has its own channeling characteristics and each zigzag "kicked off" with a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust event. The entire rise - albeit a bitch to count - still is very satisfying as a large corrective event. And a correctivbe event of this size means bottom line its all bullshit and ripe to come unglued in historic fashion. And just look how total volume has dropped steadily since the market low in 2009. This is bearish. Still, we are awaiting a solid break of the red ellipse to confirm a trend change. The short term squiggle count suggests it may be nearing. However, the retrace for wave (ii) has only been 38% so far. Normal wave (ii)'s trace higher of course. So the EW form would look better for the bear case if there was some more retrace higher prior to any new low. However, the alt count works too. In either case, the rebound off of today's low has the form of a corrective wave and the selloff has the form of an impulsive wave. That is a good indicator so far of a trend change. As an example of long-term extreme market sentiment I present a fresh study via Sentiment Trader. The Rydex bull/bear ratio is showing an extreme bet on further upside. UPDATE: I do like to use the Wilshire5000 for superior form and often channeling too. It however has not yet reached its upper channel line. So if the market still has some perkiness left in it, I'll be watching this chart closely for either a move toward the upper channel or a break of the ellipse containing prices.

Even with the Nikkei 225 plunging over 1,100 points Thursday, analysts remain positive that ongoing “Abenomics” will fuel economic growth, arguing that the temporary setback in Japanese equities and exchange traded funds is a healthy correction. “The decline in the Japanese stock...

Short update of SPX – I still prefer the blue scenario, but we need to see, how it will play out in the next days. Should be make a new low tomorrow, so I would expect the finish of (i), linked with divergence in RSI. In other case the impulse down is just a-wave of alt(iv). Wish [...]

As a courtesy to your screen, the image below is pint-sized; click it to see it in all its glory (and if you’re a little newer to computers, I should tell you that, once you’ve click this image to produce another one, you need to click on that image so it magnifies to full size……..)

The current low interest rate, low yield environment has sent investors scurrying to an array of destinations in an effort to generate income. Dividend stocks, high-yield bonds, MLPs and REITs remain popular choices for income-staved investors. ETFs that offer one-stop shopping for yield-starved...

It has been said that misery loves company. If that is indeed the case than sugar bulls can find solace in knowing that one of the world’s most consumed commodities is languishing along with plenty of others such as gold and silver. [Gold ETFs Lose Their Allure] To its credit, the iPath DJ-UBS...

RevenueShares, the ETF sponsor known for its six-ETF suite of revenue-weighted funds, landed a $7 million investment from a Chinese venture capital firm in exchange for a 22% stake in the issuer’s parent company. Suzhou Industrial Park Kaida Venture Capital specializes in funding high-tech and...

At this point seems wave 2 or b finished or is close tu finished. I'm looking for and ending diagonal at this wave c ou 2 or b.

For as good as U.S. equities have been this year, and they have been quite good broadly speaking, finding an abundance of ETFs that are up 30% or more year-to-date is difficult. The job is made even harder when excluding ETFs that track Japan, one developed market that has outperformed the U.S....

Well, it is a while I wrote my last post about this crazy and manipulated market. But today’s event can be probably marked as a big V-Day (V for the victory). To be short – /ES  dropped over 40 points after release of FED minutes, which appoints a probable end of QE program. The Big [...]